placestats

Birth registration vs. DTP3 immunisation

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 165 countries, Birth registration and DTP3 immunisation rise and fall together at r = +0.52 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.27, which could easily be chance (q = 0.20, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of dtp3 immunisation, 81% to 96% of children aged 12-23 months, birth registration is better by 13.9% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.23% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.522p = 6.3e-13 · 165 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.272p = 0.000 · likely range [+0.12, +0.41]
p, allowing for regions0.072standard error 0.125 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.197across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth registration · % of children under 5link with income +0.87 · proxy
DTP3 immunisation · % of children aged 12-23 monthslink with income +0.53 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth registration · % of children under 5 →DTP3 immunisation · % of children aged 12-23 months →2.7%100%39%99%Afghanistan: 42.3% of children under 5, 59% of children aged 12-23 monthsAngola: 25% of children under 5, 64% of children aged 12-23 monthsAlbania: 98.4% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsAndorra: 100% of children under 5, 98% of children aged 12-23 monthsUnited Arab Emirates: 100% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsArgentina: 99.7% of children under 5, 75% of children aged 12-23 monthsArmenia: 99.3% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsAustralia: 100% of children under 5, 93% of children aged 12-23 monthsAustria: 100% of children under 5, 85% of children aged 12-23 monthsBurundi: 83.5% of children under 5, 89% of children aged 12-23 monthsBelgium: 100% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsBenin: 85.6% of children under 5, 63% of children aged 12-23 monthsBurkina Faso: 76.9% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsBangladesh: 56% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsBulgaria: 100% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsBahrain: 100% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsBelarus: 100% of children under 5, 98% of children aged 12-23 monthsBelize: 95.7% of children under 5, 88% of children aged 12-23 monthsBolivia: 91.9% of children under 5, 59% of children aged 12-23 monthsBrazil: 96.4% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsBarbados: 98.7% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsBrunei Darussalam: 99.9% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsBhutan: 99.9% of children under 5, 98% of children aged 12-23 monthsBotswana: 87.5% of children under 5, 95% of children aged 12-23 monthsCentral African Republic: 44.8% of children under 5, 42% of children aged 12-23 monthsCanada: 100% of children under 5, 92% of children aged 12-23 monthsSwitzerland: 100% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsChile: 99.4% of children under 5, 95% of children aged 12-23 monthsCote d'Ivoire: 71.7% of children under 5, 77% of children aged 12-23 monthsCameroon: 61.9% of children under 5, 77% of children aged 12-23 monthsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.1% of children under 5, 65% of children aged 12-23 monthsCongo, Rep.: 95.9% of children under 5, 78% of children aged 12-23 monthsColombia: 96.8% of children under 5, 89% of children aged 12-23 monthsComoros: 87.3% of children under 5, 75% of children aged 12-23 monthsCabo Verde: 91.4% of children under 5, 93% of children aged 12-23 monthsCosta Rica: 99.6% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsCyprus: 100% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsCzechia: 100% of children under 5, 86% of children aged 12-23 monthsGermany: 100% of children under 5, 89% of children aged 12-23 monthsDenmark: 100% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsDominican Republic: 92.2% of children under 5, 87% of children aged 12-23 monthsAlgeria: 99.6% of children under 5, 92% of children aged 12-23 monthsEcuador: 87.2% of children under 5, 70% of children aged 12-23 monthsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 99.4% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsSpain: 100% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsEstonia: 100% of children under 5, 81% of children aged 12-23 monthsEthiopia: 2.7% of children under 5, 73% of children aged 12-23 monthsFinland: 100% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsFiji: 86.6% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsFrance: 100% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsGabon: 89.6% of children under 5, 61% of children aged 12-23 monthsUnited Kingdom: 100% of children under 5, 92% of children aged 12-23 monthsGeorgia: 98.5% of children under 5, 86% of children aged 12-23 monthsGhana: 70.6% of children under 5, 95% of children aged 12-23 monthsGuinea: 62% of children under 5, 63% of children aged 12-23 monthsGambia, The: 59% of children under 5, 80% of children aged 12-23 monthsGuinea-Bissau: 46% of children under 5, 68% of children aged 12-23 monthsEquatorial Guinea: 53.5% of children under 5, 68% of children aged 12-23 monthsGreece: 100% of children under 5, 95% of children aged 12-23 monthsGuatemala: 96.4% of children under 5, 81% of children aged 12-23 monthsGuyana: 98.1% of children under 5, 98% of children aged 12-23 monthsHonduras: 97% of children under 5, 75% of children aged 12-23 monthsCroatia: 100% of children under 5, 92% of children aged 12-23 monthsHaiti: 84.8% of children under 5, 60% of children aged 12-23 monthsHungary: 100% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsIndonesia: 77% of children under 5, 78% of children aged 12-23 monthsIndia: 89.1% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsIreland: 100% of children under 5, 92% of children aged 12-23 monthsIran, Islamic Rep.: 98.6% of children under 5, 98% of children aged 12-23 monthsIraq: 98.8% of children under 5, 90% of children aged 12-23 monthsIceland: 100% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsIsrael: 100% of children under 5, 98% of children aged 12-23 monthsItaly: 100% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsJamaica: 98% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsJordan: 98% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsJapan: 100% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsKazakhstan: 99.7% of children under 5, 98% of children aged 12-23 monthsKenya: 66.9% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsKyrgyz Republic: 98.9% of children under 5, 85% of children aged 12-23 monthsCambodia: 73.3% of children under 5, 83% of children aged 12-23 monthsKiribati: 91.6% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsLao PDR: 73% of children under 5, 67% of children aged 12-23 monthsLebanon: 98.9% of children under 5, 49% of children aged 12-23 monthsLiberia: 66.3% of children under 5, 83% of children aged 12-23 monthsSt. Lucia: 92% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsLesotho: 44.5% of children under 5, 86% of children aged 12-23 monthsLithuania: 100% of children under 5, 89% of children aged 12-23 monthsLuxembourg: 100% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsLatvia: 100% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsMorocco: 96.9% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsMoldova: 99.6% of children under 5, 86% of children aged 12-23 monthsMadagascar: 73.8% of children under 5, 60% of children aged 12-23 monthsMaldives: 98.8% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsMexico: 97% of children under 5, 78% of children aged 12-23 monthsMarshall Islands: 83.8% of children under 5, 85% of children aged 12-23 monthsNorth Macedonia: 99.8% of children under 5, 89% of children aged 12-23 monthsMali: 86.7% of children under 5, 82% of children aged 12-23 monthsMalta: 100% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsMyanmar: 81.3% of children under 5, 71% of children aged 12-23 monthsMontenegro: 99.4% of children under 5, 81% of children aged 12-23 monthsMongolia: 99.6% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsMozambique: 55% of children under 5, 70% of children aged 12-23 monthsMauritania: 44.8% of children under 5, 86% of children aged 12-23 monthsMalawi: 67.2% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsNamibia: 78.1% of children under 5, 74% of children aged 12-23 monthsNiger: 63.9% of children under 5, 86% of children aged 12-23 monthsNigeria: 42.6% of children under 5, 67% of children aged 12-23 monthsNicaragua: 84.7% of children under 5, 89% of children aged 12-23 monthsNetherlands: 100% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsNorway: 100% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsNepal: 77.2% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsNaoero: 95.9% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsNew Zealand: 100% of children under 5, 89% of children aged 12-23 monthsOman: 100% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsPakistan: 42.2% of children under 5, 87% of children aged 12-23 monthsPanama: 96.7% of children under 5, 72% of children aged 12-23 monthsPeru: 96.4% of children under 5, 80% of children aged 12-23 monthsPhilippines: 91.8% of children under 5, 71% of children aged 12-23 monthsPapua New Guinea: 13.4% of children under 5, 42% of children aged 12-23 monthsPoland: 100% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsPortugal: 100% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsParaguay: 71% of children under 5, 80% of children aged 12-23 monthsWest Bank and Gaza: 99.2% of children under 5, 88% of children aged 12-23 monthsQatar: 100% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsRomania: 100% of children under 5, 79% of children aged 12-23 monthsRussian Federation: 100% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsRwanda: 85.6% of children under 5, 98% of children aged 12-23 monthsSaudi Arabia: 99.2% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsSudan: 67.3% of children under 5, 39% of children aged 12-23 monthsSenegal: 78.7% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsSingapore: 99.9% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsSolomon Islands: 88% of children under 5, 87% of children aged 12-23 monthsSierra Leone: 90.4% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsEl Salvador: 91.2% of children under 5, 95% of children aged 12-23 monthsSan Marino: 100% of children under 5, 88% of children aged 12-23 monthsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 5.9% of children under 5, 70% of children aged 12-23 monthsSerbia: 99.9% of children under 5, 95% of children aged 12-23 monthsSao Tome and Principe: 98.6% of children under 5, 87% of children aged 12-23 monthsSuriname: 98.3% of children under 5, 69% of children aged 12-23 monthsSlovak Republic: 100% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsSlovenia: 100% of children under 5, 90% of children aged 12-23 monthsSweden: 100% of children under 5, 96% of children aged 12-23 monthsEswatini: 53.5% of children under 5, 84% of children aged 12-23 monthsChad: 25.7% of children under 5, 68% of children aged 12-23 monthsTogo: 82.9% of children under 5, 90% of children aged 12-23 monthsThailand: 99.8% of children under 5, 92% of children aged 12-23 monthsTajikistan: 95.8% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsTurkmenistan: 99.9% of children under 5, 98% of children aged 12-23 monthsTimor-Leste: 60.4% of children under 5, 83% of children aged 12-23 monthsTonga: 97.7% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsTrinidad and Tobago: 96.5% of children under 5, 92% of children aged 12-23 monthsTunisia: 99.9% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsTurkiye: 98.4% of children under 5, 99% of children aged 12-23 monthsTuvalu: 87.2% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsTanzania: 26.4% of children under 5, 83% of children aged 12-23 monthsUganda: 32.2% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsUkraine: 99.8% of children under 5, 88% of children aged 12-23 monthsUruguay: 99.8% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsUnited States: 100% of children under 5, 94% of children aged 12-23 monthsViet Nam: 96.1% of children under 5, 97% of children aged 12-23 monthsVanuatu: 43.4% of children under 5, 71% of children aged 12-23 monthsSamoa: 66.9% of children under 5, 85% of children aged 12-23 monthsSouth Africa: 88.6% of children under 5, 74% of children aged 12-23 monthsZambia: 14% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsZimbabwe: 48.7% of children under 5, 91% of children aged 12-23 monthsBOLCAFETHLBNLUXOMNPNGPRTSDNSOMUGAZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5226.3e-13165
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5605.5e-15165
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2720.000165
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2480.001165

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 165 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.251 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.213 (without PNG) to +0.305 (without ZMB). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: PNG (-0.058).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific24+0.79
Europe & Central Asia47-0.21
Latin America & Caribbean25+0.11
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan18+0.20
Sub-Saharan Africa44+0.18

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third55+0.27
Middle third55+0.32
Richest third55+0.24

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians103+0.23
Muslims41+0.28

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.10
Never a European colony17+0.55
Spain19+0.31
United Kingdom51+0.35

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.241 after dropping 18 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of children under 5
% of children aged 12-23 months		Years
United States USA100%94%2022, 2024
Sweden SWE100%96%2022, 2024
Slovenia SVN100%90%2022, 2024
Slovak Republic SVK100%96%2020, 2024
San Marino SMR100%88%2022, 2024
Russian Federation RUS100%97%2022, 2024
Romania ROU100%79%2020, 2024
Qatar QAT100%96%2020, 2024
Portugal PRT100%99%2020, 2024
Poland POL100%94%2017, 2024
Oman OMN100%99%2018, 2024
New Zealand NZL100%89%2022, 2024
Norway NOR100%97%2022, 2024
Netherlands NLD100%91%2022, 2024
Malta MLT100%97%2022, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth registration

Completeness of birth registration (%)

UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

A measure of how far the state reaches: whether it knows a child exists. Based on surveys and sparse. It is near 100 across the rich world, so all the variation is at the other end.

DTP3 immunisation

Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months)

WHO and UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Three doses of the diphtheria, tetanus and whooping cough (pertussis) vaccine, the standard measure of a routine vaccination system. Measles coverage is published the same way and moves with it almost exactly, so only one of the two is here.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth registration and DTP3 immunisation

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth registration changes DTP3 immunisation, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth registration or DTP3 immunisation