placestats

Birth rate vs. Road traffic deaths

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 183 countries, Birth rate and Road traffic deaths rise and fall together at r = +0.69 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.33 (q = 0.013, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak positive link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of birth rate, 9.94 to 25.4 per 1,000 people, road traffic deaths is worse by 11.6 per 100,000 population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 8.26 per 100,000 population.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.688p = 5.3e-27 · 183 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.328p = 6.0e-6 · likely range [+0.19, +0.45]
p, allowing for regions0.000standard error 0.048 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.013across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth rate · per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.85 · proxy
Road traffic deaths · per 100,000 populationlink with income -0.71 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth rate · per 1,000 people →Road traffic deaths · per 100,000 population →4.246.2064.6Afghanistan: 35 per 1,000 people, 15.9 per 100,000 populationAngola: 37.2 per 1,000 people, 26.1 per 100,000 populationAlbania: 10.1 per 1,000 people, 11.7 per 100,000 populationAndorra: 6.85 per 1,000 people, 7.6 per 100,000 populationUnited Arab Emirates: 9.82 per 1,000 people, 8.9 per 100,000 populationArgentina: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 14.1 per 100,000 populationArmenia: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 20 per 100,000 populationAntigua and Barbuda: 11.7 per 1,000 people, 0 per 100,000 populationAustralia: 10.7 per 1,000 people, 4.9 per 100,000 populationAustria: 8.4 per 1,000 people, 4.9 per 100,000 populationAzerbaijan: 10 per 1,000 people, 6.7 per 100,000 populationBurundi: 33.2 per 1,000 people, 35.5 per 100,000 populationBelgium: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 5.8 per 100,000 populationBenin: 33.4 per 1,000 people, 26.8 per 100,000 populationBurkina Faso: 31.3 per 1,000 people, 31 per 100,000 populationBangladesh: 20 per 1,000 people, 15.3 per 100,000 populationBulgaria: 8.3 per 1,000 people, 9.2 per 100,000 populationBahrain: 12 per 1,000 people, 5.2 per 100,000 populationBahamas, The: 10.8 per 1,000 people, 7.7 per 100,000 populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 7.72 per 1,000 people, 13.5 per 100,000 populationBelarus: 7.03 per 1,000 people, 7.6 per 100,000 populationBelize: 18.1 per 1,000 people, 22.6 per 100,000 populationBolivia: 21 per 1,000 people, 21.1 per 100,000 populationBrazil: 12.1 per 1,000 people, 16 per 100,000 populationBarbados: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 8.2 per 100,000 populationBrunei Darussalam: 13.3 per 1,000 people, 7.5 per 100,000 populationBhutan: 12.5 per 1,000 people, 16.2 per 100,000 populationBotswana: 24.4 per 1,000 people, 26.4 per 100,000 populationCentral African Republic: 46.2 per 1,000 people, 37.7 per 100,000 populationCanada: 8.9 per 1,000 people, 5.3 per 100,000 populationSwitzerland: 8.7 per 1,000 people, 2.2 per 100,000 populationChile: 8.72 per 1,000 people, 14.9 per 100,000 populationChina: 6.77 per 1,000 people, 17.4 per 100,000 populationCote d'Ivoire: 31.6 per 1,000 people, 24.1 per 100,000 populationCameroon: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 30.2 per 100,000 populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.9 per 1,000 people, 34.9 per 100,000 populationCongo, Rep.: 30.4 per 1,000 people, 29.7 per 100,000 populationColombia: 13.3 per 1,000 people, 15.4 per 100,000 populationComoros: 28.2 per 1,000 people, 26.6 per 100,000 populationCabo Verde: 12.2 per 1,000 people, 26.8 per 100,000 populationCosta Rica: 9.99 per 1,000 people, 14.8 per 100,000 populationCyprus: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 5.8 per 100,000 populationCzechia: 7.7 per 1,000 people, 5.9 per 100,000 populationGermany: 8.1 per 1,000 people, 3.8 per 100,000 populationDjibouti: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 23.5 per 100,000 populationDominica: 11 per 1,000 people, 10.9 per 100,000 populationDenmark: 9.5 per 1,000 people, 3.7 per 100,000 populationDominican Republic: 17.6 per 1,000 people, 64.6 per 100,000 populationAlgeria: 18.8 per 1,000 people, 20.9 per 100,000 populationEcuador: 14.8 per 1,000 people, 20.1 per 100,000 populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 10.1 per 100,000 populationSpain: 6.5 per 1,000 people, 3.9 per 100,000 populationEstonia: 7.1 per 1,000 people, 4.5 per 100,000 populationEthiopia: 31.5 per 1,000 people, 28.2 per 100,000 populationFinland: 7.8 per 1,000 people, 3.9 per 100,000 populationFiji: 17.9 per 1,000 people, 13.5 per 100,000 populationFrance: 9.7 per 1,000 people, 5.1 per 100,000 populationMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 22.3 per 1,000 people, 0.2 per 100,000 populationGabon: 27.1 per 1,000 people, 23.9 per 100,000 populationUnited Kingdom: 9.89 per 1,000 people, 3.2 per 100,000 populationGeorgia: 11.3 per 1,000 people, 12.4 per 100,000 populationGhana: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 25.7 per 100,000 populationGuinea: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 29.7 per 100,000 populationGambia, The: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 29.6 per 100,000 populationGuinea-Bissau: 29.6 per 1,000 people, 32.2 per 100,000 populationEquatorial Guinea: 30 per 1,000 people, 27.2 per 100,000 populationGreece: 6.6 per 1,000 people, 8.3 per 100,000 populationGrenada: 11.5 per 1,000 people, 8 per 100,000 populationGuatemala: 20.6 per 1,000 people, 22.9 per 100,000 populationGuyana: 19.9 per 1,000 people, 22.3 per 100,000 populationHonduras: 21.6 per 1,000 people, 16.1 per 100,000 populationCroatia: 8.3 per 1,000 people, 7.9 per 100,000 populationHaiti: 21.9 per 1,000 people, 18.8 per 100,000 populationHungary: 8.2 per 1,000 people, 7.7 per 100,000 populationIndonesia: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 11.3 per 100,000 populationIndia: 16 per 1,000 people, 15.6 per 100,000 populationIreland: 10 per 1,000 people, 3.1 per 100,000 populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 12.6 per 1,000 people, 21.5 per 100,000 populationIraq: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 27.3 per 100,000 populationIceland: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 2 per 100,000 populationIsrael: 18.6 per 1,000 people, 3.9 per 100,000 populationItaly: 6.3 per 1,000 people, 5.3 per 100,000 populationJamaica: 11.4 per 1,000 people, 15.1 per 100,000 populationJordan: 20.5 per 1,000 people, 17 per 100,000 populationJapan: 5.7 per 1,000 people, 3.6 per 100,000 populationKazakhstan: 19.5 per 1,000 people, 12.7 per 100,000 populationKenya: 27 per 1,000 people, 28.3 per 100,000 populationKyrgyz Republic: 19.4 per 1,000 people, 12.7 per 100,000 populationCambodia: 20.3 per 1,000 people, 19.6 per 100,000 populationKiribati: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 1.9 per 100,000 populationKorea, Rep.: 4.7 per 1,000 people, 8.6 per 100,000 populationKuwait: 10 per 1,000 people, 15.4 per 100,000 populationLao PDR: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 17.9 per 100,000 populationLebanon: 16 per 1,000 people, 16.4 per 100,000 populationLiberia: 30.6 per 1,000 people, 38.9 per 100,000 populationLibya: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 21.3 per 100,000 populationSt. Lucia: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 29.8 per 100,000 populationSri Lanka: 10.1 per 1,000 people, 19.7 per 100,000 populationLesotho: 23.8 per 1,000 people, 31.9 per 100,000 populationLithuania: 6.6 per 1,000 people, 8.1 per 100,000 populationLuxembourg: 9.5 per 1,000 people, 4.1 per 100,000 populationLatvia: 6.9 per 1,000 people, 8.1 per 100,000 populationMorocco: 16.4 per 1,000 people, 17 per 100,000 populationMoldova: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 7.3 per 100,000 populationMadagascar: 31.7 per 1,000 people, 29.2 per 100,000 populationMaldives: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 1.6 per 100,000 populationMexico: 15.5 per 1,000 people, 12.8 per 100,000 populationMarshall Islands: 20.1 per 1,000 people, 5.7 per 100,000 populationNorth Macedonia: 8.8 per 1,000 people, 5.1 per 100,000 populationMali: 39.5 per 1,000 people, 22.7 per 100,000 populationMalta: 7.7 per 1,000 people, 4.1 per 100,000 populationMyanmar: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 20.4 per 100,000 populationMontenegro: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 7.6 per 100,000 populationMongolia: 16.9 per 1,000 people, 21 per 100,000 populationMozambique: 37 per 1,000 people, 30 per 100,000 populationMauritania: 34 per 1,000 people, 25.6 per 100,000 populationMauritius: 10.3 per 1,000 people, 12.2 per 100,000 populationMalawi: 31.1 per 1,000 people, 33.4 per 100,000 populationMalaysia: 12.4 per 1,000 people, 22.5 per 100,000 populationNamibia: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 34.8 per 100,000 populationNiger: 41.4 per 1,000 people, 25.5 per 100,000 populationNigeria: 32.5 per 1,000 people, 20.7 per 100,000 populationNicaragua: 19.1 per 1,000 people, 16.9 per 100,000 populationNetherlands: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 4 per 100,000 populationNorway: 9.7 per 1,000 people, 2.1 per 100,000 populationNepal: 19 per 1,000 people, 16.3 per 100,000 populationNew Zealand: 11 per 1,000 people, 9.6 per 100,000 populationOman: 16.8 per 1,000 people, 10.6 per 100,000 populationPakistan: 27.4 per 1,000 people, 13 per 100,000 populationPanama: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 13.9 per 100,000 populationPeru: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 13.6 per 100,000 populationPhilippines: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 12 per 100,000 populationPalau: 10.7 per 1,000 people, 4.78 per 100,000 populationPapua New Guinea: 24.3 per 1,000 people, 12.6 per 100,000 populationPoland: 6.9 per 1,000 people, 9.4 per 100,000 populationPortugal: 7.9 per 1,000 people, 8.2 per 100,000 populationParaguay: 19.7 per 1,000 people, 22 per 100,000 populationWest Bank and Gaza: 26.5 per 1,000 people, 5.3 per 100,000 populationQatar: 9.52 per 1,000 people, 7.3 per 100,000 populationRomania: 7.5 per 1,000 people, 10.3 per 100,000 populationRussian Federation: 8.4 per 1,000 people, 12 per 100,000 populationRwanda: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 29.4 per 100,000 populationSaudi Arabia: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 35.9 per 100,000 populationSudan: 33 per 1,000 people, 26.8 per 100,000 populationSenegal: 29.2 per 1,000 people, 23.5 per 100,000 populationSingapore: 7.4 per 1,000 people, 2.1 per 100,000 populationSolomon Islands: 26.7 per 1,000 people, 16.5 per 100,000 populationSierra Leone: 30.1 per 1,000 people, 33 per 100,000 populationEl Salvador: 15.6 per 1,000 people, 20.9 per 100,000 populationSan Marino: 4.2 per 1,000 people, 0 per 100,000 populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 42.3 per 1,000 people, 27.4 per 100,000 populationSerbia: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 7.5 per 100,000 populationSao Tome and Principe: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 27.9 per 100,000 populationSuriname: 17.2 per 1,000 people, 15.3 per 100,000 populationSlovak Republic: 8.5 per 1,000 people, 6.1 per 100,000 populationSlovenia: 7.9 per 1,000 people, 5.1 per 100,000 populationSweden: 9.3 per 1,000 people, 3.1 per 100,000 populationEswatini: 23.6 per 1,000 people, 33.5 per 100,000 populationSeychelles: 11 per 1,000 people, 11.3 per 100,000 populationSyrian Arab Republic: 23.2 per 1,000 people, 14.9 per 100,000 populationChad: 43.3 per 1,000 people, 32.4 per 100,000 populationTogo: 32.1 per 1,000 people, 28.7 per 100,000 populationThailand: 8.12 per 1,000 people, 32.2 per 100,000 populationTajikistan: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 15.7 per 100,000 populationTurkmenistan: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 13.5 per 100,000 populationTimor-Leste: 21.8 per 1,000 people, 11.9 per 100,000 populationTonga: 23 per 1,000 people, 33 per 100,000 populationTrinidad and Tobago: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 9.3 per 100,000 populationTunisia: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 16.5 per 100,000 populationTurkiye: 11 per 1,000 people, 6.7 per 100,000 populationTanzania: 34.8 per 1,000 people, 31.1 per 100,000 populationUganda: 34.4 per 1,000 people, 29.4 per 100,000 populationUkraine: 5.47 per 1,000 people, 10.2 per 100,000 populationUruguay: 9.8 per 1,000 people, 14.8 per 100,000 populationUnited States: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 12.7 per 100,000 populationUzbekistan: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 11.7 per 100,000 populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 12 per 1,000 people, 7.4 per 100,000 populationViet Nam: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 30.6 per 100,000 populationVanuatu: 27.7 per 1,000 people, 14.9 per 100,000 populationSamoa: 25 per 1,000 people, 13 per 100,000 populationSouth Africa: 18.5 per 1,000 people, 22.2 per 100,000 populationZambia: 32.7 per 1,000 people, 20.5 per 100,000 populationZimbabwe: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 41.2 per 100,000 populationCAFDOMFSMJPNKIRPSESAUSGPSMRTCDTHA

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6885.3e-27183
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.7263.4e-31183
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3286.0e-6183
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3229.2e-6183

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 183 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.360 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.306 (without GUY) to +0.353 (without THA). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: THA (+0.025).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions
  • much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference)

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific27-0.15
Europe & Central Asia50+0.09
Latin America & Caribbean30+0.42
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.02
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.04

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third61+0.43
Middle third61+0.36
Richest third61+0.48

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians108+0.44
Muslims49+0.33

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.51
Never a European colony21+0.09
Spain20+0.44
United Kingdom60+0.36

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.348 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 20years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = -0.171) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = -0.025). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.328for comparison
Within countries+0.044each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.171q = 0.013 · 183 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.025q = 0.470
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,660 country-years (one country in one year), 183 countries, 2000–2019, about 20 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 3% for Birth rate, 13% for Road traffic deaths. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Road traffic deaths trails Birth rate →lag -10: r = -0.211 (n = 2,745)lag -9: r = -0.199 (n = 2,928)lag -8: r = -0.187 (n = 3,111)lag -7: r = -0.190 (n = 3,294)lag -6: r = -0.189 (n = 3,477)lag -5: r = -0.183 (n = 3,660)lag -4: r = -0.184 (n = 3,660)lag -3: r = -0.178 (n = 3,660)lag -2: r = -0.172 (n = 3,660)lag -1: r = -0.170 (n = 3,660)lag +0: r = -0.171 (n = 3,660)lag +1: r = -0.176 (n = 3,660)lag +2: r = -0.185 (n = 3,660)lag +3: r = -0.192 (n = 3,660)lag +4: r = -0.209 (n = 3,660)lag +5: r = -0.223 (n = 3,660)lag +6: r = -0.231 (n = 3,660)lag +7: r = -0.238 (n = 3,660)lag +8: r = -0.237 (n = 3,660)lag +9: r = -0.238 (n = 3,660)lag +10: r = -0.222 (n = 3,660)

Same year (lag 0): -0.171. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.24 at lag +9) is higher than the same-year one by 0.07. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


per 1,000 people
per 100,000 population		Years
Central African Republic CAF46.237.72024, 2019
Chad TCD43.332.42024, 2019
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM42.327.42024, 2019
Niger NER41.425.52024, 2019
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD40.934.92024, 2019
Mali MLI39.522.72024, 2019
Angola AGO37.226.12024, 2019
Mozambique MOZ37302024, 2019
Afghanistan AFG3515.92024, 2019
Tanzania TZA34.831.12024, 2019
Uganda UGA34.429.42024, 2019
Mauritania MRT3425.62024, 2019
Benin BEN33.426.82024, 2019
Cameroon CMR33.330.22024, 2019
Guinea GIN33.329.72024, 2019

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth rate

Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Road traffic deaths

Mortality from road traffic injury (per 100,000 population)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

The World Bank's copy stops at 2019.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2013–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth rate and Road traffic deaths

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth rate changes Road traffic deaths, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth rate or Road traffic deaths