placestats

Birth rate vs. Contraceptive use (modern methods)

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 145 countries, Birth rate and Contraceptive use (modern methods) rise and fall together at r = -0.54 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.31, which could easily be chance (q = 0.47, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of contraceptive use (modern methods), 23.9% to 57%, birth rate is 8.68 per 1,000 people lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2.89 per 1,000 people.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.542p = 1.8e-12 · 145 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.306p = 0.000 · likely range [-0.45, -0.15]
p, allowing for regions0.206standard error 0.216 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.468across 14,952 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth rate · per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.85 · proxy
Contraceptive use (modern methods) · %link with income +0.46 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth rate · per 1,000 people →Contraceptive use (modern methods) · % →4.746.20.9%81.6%Afghanistan: 35 per 1,000 people, 19.8%Angola: 37.2 per 1,000 people, 12.5%Albania: 10.1 per 1,000 people, 3.7%Argentina: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 67.2%Armenia: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 28%Australia: 10.7 per 1,000 people, 64.7%Austria: 8.4 per 1,000 people, 63%Azerbaijan: 10 per 1,000 people, 13.9%Burundi: 33.2 per 1,000 people, 22.9%Belgium: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 65.4%Benin: 33.4 per 1,000 people, 16.9%Burkina Faso: 31.3 per 1,000 people, 31.3%Bangladesh: 20 per 1,000 people, 54.7%Bosnia and Herzegovina: 7.72 per 1,000 people, 12.1%Belarus: 7.03 per 1,000 people, 45.9%Belize: 18.1 per 1,000 people, 48.5%Bolivia: 21 per 1,000 people, 45.1%Brazil: 12.1 per 1,000 people, 77.7%Barbados: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 55.4%Bhutan: 12.5 per 1,000 people, 65.4%Central African Republic: 46.2 per 1,000 people, 14.4%Switzerland: 8.7 per 1,000 people, 67.3%Chile: 8.72 per 1,000 people, 69.8%China: 6.77 per 1,000 people, 80.5%Cote d'Ivoire: 31.6 per 1,000 people, 25.2%Cameroon: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 15.4%Congo, Dem. Rep.: 40.9 per 1,000 people, 17.6%Congo, Rep.: 30.4 per 1,000 people, 18.3%Colombia: 13.3 per 1,000 people, 75.9%Comoros: 28.2 per 1,000 people, 8.6%Cabo Verde: 12.2 per 1,000 people, 54.6%Costa Rica: 9.99 per 1,000 people, 70%Germany: 8.1 per 1,000 people, 80.2%Djibouti: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 18%Dominican Republic: 17.6 per 1,000 people, 62%Algeria: 18.8 per 1,000 people, 44.9%Ecuador: 14.8 per 1,000 people, 72.4%Egypt, Arab Rep.: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 56.9%Spain: 6.5 per 1,000 people, 59.9%Estonia: 7.1 per 1,000 people, 60.9%Ethiopia: 31.5 per 1,000 people, 34.6%Finland: 7.8 per 1,000 people, 81.6%Fiji: 17.9 per 1,000 people, 31.2%France: 9.7 per 1,000 people, 72.7%Gabon: 27.1 per 1,000 people, 17.3%United Kingdom: 9.89 per 1,000 people, 71.1%Georgia: 11.3 per 1,000 people, 31.2%Ghana: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 27.8%Guinea: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 10.6%Gambia, The: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 17.1%Guinea-Bissau: 29.6 per 1,000 people, 20.2%Equatorial Guinea: 30 per 1,000 people, 9.6%Guatemala: 20.6 per 1,000 people, 48.9%Guyana: 19.9 per 1,000 people, 28.6%Hong Kong SAR, China: 4.9 per 1,000 people, 64.5%Honduras: 21.6 per 1,000 people, 66.5%Haiti: 21.9 per 1,000 people, 31.8%Indonesia: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 51.6%India: 16 per 1,000 people, 56.4%Ireland: 10 per 1,000 people, 70.9%Iran, Islamic Rep.: 12.6 per 1,000 people, 57%Iraq: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 36.1%Italy: 6.3 per 1,000 people, 51.8%Jamaica: 11.4 per 1,000 people, 53.2%Jordan: 20.5 per 1,000 people, 38.4%Japan: 5.7 per 1,000 people, 52.8%Kazakhstan: 19.5 per 1,000 people, 50.1%Kenya: 27 per 1,000 people, 56.9%Kyrgyz Republic: 19.4 per 1,000 people, 37.8%Cambodia: 20.3 per 1,000 people, 44.7%Kiribati: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 27.3%Korea, Rep.: 4.7 per 1,000 people, 67.6%Lao PDR: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 51%Liberia: 30.6 per 1,000 people, 23.9%Libya: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 16.3%St. Lucia: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 52.4%Sri Lanka: 10.1 per 1,000 people, 53.6%Lesotho: 23.8 per 1,000 people, 65.3%Morocco: 16.4 per 1,000 people, 59.1%Moldova: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 43.9%Madagascar: 31.7 per 1,000 people, 42.7%Maldives: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 14.9%Mexico: 15.5 per 1,000 people, 69.1%North Macedonia: 8.8 per 1,000 people, 14%Mali: 39.5 per 1,000 people, 16.4%Myanmar: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 51.3%Montenegro: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 11.6%Mongolia: 16.9 per 1,000 people, 45.2%Mozambique: 37 per 1,000 people, 25.4%Mauritania: 34 per 1,000 people, 12.8%Mauritius: 10.3 per 1,000 people, 31.1%Malawi: 31.1 per 1,000 people, 64.7%Malaysia: 12.4 per 1,000 people, 34.5%Namibia: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 55.3%Niger: 41.4 per 1,000 people, 13.9%Nigeria: 32.5 per 1,000 people, 18.2%Nicaragua: 19.1 per 1,000 people, 77.4%Nepal: 19 per 1,000 people, 42.7%Oman: 16.8 per 1,000 people, 18.8%Pakistan: 27.4 per 1,000 people, 25%Panama: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 46.9%Peru: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 57.9%Philippines: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 41.8%Papua New Guinea: 24.3 per 1,000 people, 30.5%Poland: 6.9 per 1,000 people, 50.7%Paraguay: 19.7 per 1,000 people, 66.4%West Bank and Gaza: 26.5 per 1,000 people, 42.8%Qatar: 9.52 per 1,000 people, 34.3%Russian Federation: 8.4 per 1,000 people, 55%Rwanda: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 58.4%Saudi Arabia: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 32.9%Sudan: 33 per 1,000 people, 12%Senegal: 29.2 per 1,000 people, 25.6%Solomon Islands: 26.7 per 1,000 people, 24.3%Sierra Leone: 30.1 per 1,000 people, 20.9%El Salvador: 15.6 per 1,000 people, 52.1%Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 42.3 per 1,000 people, 0.9%Serbia: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 21.3%Sao Tome and Principe: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 46%Suriname: 17.2 per 1,000 people, 38.7%Eswatini: 23.6 per 1,000 people, 57%Turks and Caicos Islands: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 33.5%Chad: 43.3 per 1,000 people, 6.7%Togo: 32.1 per 1,000 people, 21.4%Thailand: 8.12 per 1,000 people, 70.7%Tajikistan: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 27.1%Turkmenistan: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 47.3%Timor-Leste: 21.8 per 1,000 people, 24.1%Tonga: 23 per 1,000 people, 25.2%Trinidad and Tobago: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 30.5%Tunisia: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 48.4%Turkiye: 11 per 1,000 people, 48.9%Tuvalu: 22 per 1,000 people, 22.4%Tanzania: 34.8 per 1,000 people, 31.1%Uganda: 34.4 per 1,000 people, 38%Ukraine: 5.47 per 1,000 people, 47.6%United States: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 66.1%Uzbekistan: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 56.4%Viet Nam: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 59.8%Vanuatu: 27.7 per 1,000 people, 37.1%Samoa: 25 per 1,000 people, 15.8%Kosovo: 11.9 per 1,000 people, 9.4%South Africa: 18.5 per 1,000 people, 54%Zambia: 32.7 per 1,000 people, 47.5%Zimbabwe: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 65.8%ALBBIHCAFCHNDEUFINMKDMWINICSOMTCDZWE

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5421.8e-12145
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.5202.1e-11145
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.3060.000145
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2820.001145

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 145 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.236 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.333 (without BIH) to -0.283 (without GUY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BIH (-0.026).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23-0.66
Europe & Central Asia31+0.40
Latin America & Caribbean25-0.30
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan15-0.42
Sub-Saharan Africa44-0.58

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third49-0.45
Middle third48-0.47
Richest third48-0.24

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians84-0.30
Muslims44-0.08

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23-0.72
Never a European colony21-0.33
Spain18-0.72
United Kingdom45-0.28

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.306 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = -0.459) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = —). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.306for comparison
Within countries-0.712each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.459q = 0.000 · 90 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
Read with care.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

728 country-years (one country in one year), 90 countries, 1990–2024, about 8 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 13% for Birth rate, 11% for Contraceptive use (modern methods). The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.50−0.5-100+10years Contraceptive use (modern methods) trails Birth rate →lag -10: r = -0.106 (n = 441)lag -9: r = -0.208 (n = 489)lag -8: r = -0.208 (n = 526)lag -7: r = -0.258 (n = 564)lag -6: r = -0.311 (n = 613)lag -5: r = -0.346 (n = 652)lag -4: r = -0.401 (n = 669)lag -3: r = -0.439 (n = 684)lag -2: r = -0.447 (n = 719)lag -1: r = -0.463 (n = 727)lag +0: r = -0.459 (n = 728)lag +1: r = -0.429 (n = 715)lag +2: r = -0.446 (n = 695)lag +3: r = -0.424 (n = 672)lag +4: r = -0.388 (n = 633)lag +5: r = -0.349 (n = 616)lag +6: r = -0.304 (n = 569)lag +7: r = -0.241 (n = 526)lag +8: r = -0.135 (n = 500)lag +9: r = -0.085 (n = 472)lag +10: r = -0.025 (n = 444)

Same year (lag 0): -0.459. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


per 1,000 people
%		Years
Central African Republic CAF46.214.4%2024, 2019
Chad TCD43.36.7%2024, 2019
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM42.30.9%2024, 2019
Niger NER41.413.9%2024, 2023
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD40.917.6%2024, 2018
Mali MLI39.516.4%2024, 2018
Angola AGO37.212.5%2024, 2016
Mozambique MOZ3725.4%2024, 2023
Afghanistan AFG3519.8%2024, 2015
Tanzania TZA34.831.1%2024, 2022
Uganda UGA34.438%2024, 2022
Mauritania MRT3412.8%2024, 2021
Benin BEN33.416.9%2024, 2022
Cameroon CMR33.315.4%2024, 2018
Guinea GIN33.310.6%2024, 2018

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth rate

Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Contraceptive use (modern methods)

Contraceptive prevalence, any modern method (% of married women ages 15-49)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

The same survey share as contraceptive use by any method, counting only modern methods: the pill, condoms, IUDs, implants, injections and sterilisation. Most countries have a survey only every few years.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth rate and Contraceptive use (modern methods)

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth rate changes Contraceptive use (modern methods), or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth rate or Contraceptive use (modern methods)