placestats

Armed conflict present vs. Religious attendance

Fades after adjusting for income

A country is not a person. Countries where more people are counted as belonging to this group also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does not follow that the people in the group are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. It is the most common misuse of this kind of data. Religion also varies strongly with region, history and national income, so much of what looks religious here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures are for. The religion shares are estimates for two years only, and the survey questions are asked in rounds that can be ten years apart.

Across 102 countries, Armed conflict present and Religious attendance rise and fall together at r = +0.53 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.26, which could easily be chance (q = 0.12, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of religious attendance, 17.9% to 58.2% of respondents, armed conflict present is worse by 0.42 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.226 points.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.531p = 9.7e-9 · 102 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.262p = 0.008 · likely range [+0.07, +0.44]
p, allowing for regions0.047standard error 0.105 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.116across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Armed conflict present · 1 if any conflict, else 0link with income -0.39 · moderate
Religious attendance · % of respondentslink with income -0.66 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Armed conflict present · 1 if any conflict, else 0 →Religious attendance · % of respondents →012.79%93%Albania: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 14.8% of respondentsAndorra: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 16% of respondentsArgentina: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 36% of respondentsArmenia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 35.8% of respondentsAustralia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 17.5% of respondentsAustria: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 26.8% of respondentsAzerbaijan: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 13.9% of respondentsBelgium: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 18.9% of respondentsBurkina Faso: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 76.9% of respondentsBangladesh: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 54.2% of respondentsBulgaria: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 17.3% of respondentsBosnia and Herzegovina: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 43.3% of respondentsBelarus: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 19.9% of respondentsBolivia: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 65% of respondentsBrazil: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 59.6% of respondentsCanada: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 16.4% of respondentsSwitzerland: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 16.2% of respondentsChile: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 31% of respondentsChina: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 2.79% of respondentsColombia: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 58.3% of respondentsCyprus: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 50.2% of respondentsCzechia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 10% of respondentsGermany: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 19.2% of respondentsDenmark: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 6.48% of respondentsAlgeria: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 53.5% of respondentsEcuador: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 61.3% of respondentsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 58.8% of respondentsSpain: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 22.8% of respondentsEstonia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 8% of respondentsEthiopia: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 93% of respondentsFinland: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 11.1% of respondentsFrance: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 12.4% of respondentsUnited Kingdom: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 16.1% of respondentsGeorgia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 33.7% of respondentsGhana: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 83.8% of respondentsGreece: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 44.5% of respondentsGuatemala: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 63.4% of respondentsCroatia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 33.7% of respondentsHaiti: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 38.6% of respondentsHungary: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 17.3% of respondentsIndonesia: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 77.8% of respondentsIndia: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 62.7% of respondentsIreland: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 53.3% of respondentsIran, Islamic Rep.: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 43.2% of respondentsIraq: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 43.7% of respondentsIceland: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 8.48% of respondentsItaly: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 40.7% of respondentsJordan: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 56.4% of respondentsJapan: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 12.3% of respondentsKazakhstan: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 32.8% of respondentsKenya: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 84.6% of respondentsKyrgyz Republic: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 39.2% of respondentsKorea, Rep.: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 22.8% of respondentsLebanon: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 53.3% of respondentsLibya: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 54% of respondentsLithuania: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 30% of respondentsLuxembourg: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 22.7% of respondentsLatvia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 12.8% of respondentsMorocco: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 58.1% of respondentsMoldova: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 27.8% of respondentsMaldives: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 64.8% of respondentsMexico: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 60.6% of respondentsNorth Macedonia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 40.1% of respondentsMali: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 73.9% of respondentsMalta: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 81.5% of respondentsMyanmar: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 43.5% of respondentsMontenegro: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 36.7% of respondentsMongolia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 14.1% of respondentsMalaysia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 60.3% of respondentsNigeria: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 90.3% of respondentsNicaragua: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 54.2% of respondentsNetherlands: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 14.3% of respondentsNorway: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 11.8% of respondentsNew Zealand: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 16.8% of respondentsPakistan: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 60.9% of respondentsPeru: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 57.1% of respondentsPhilippines: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 81.8% of respondentsPoland: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 64.3% of respondentsPortugal: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 29.7% of respondentsWest Bank and Gaza: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 58.5% of respondentsRomania: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 46% of respondentsRussian Federation: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 16.3% of respondentsRwanda: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 78.2% of respondentsSingapore: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 42.6% of respondentsSerbia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 20.1% of respondentsSlovak Republic: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 36.1% of respondentsSlovenia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 23.8% of respondentsSweden: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 9.65% of respondentsThailand: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 38.1% of respondentsTajikistan: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 40.7% of respondentsTrinidad and Tobago: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 57.8% of respondentsTunisia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 43.5% of respondentsTurkiye: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 39.5% of respondentsUkraine: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 29.1% of respondentsUruguay: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 13.3% of respondentsUnited States: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 39% of respondentsUzbekistan: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 41.7% of respondentsViet Nam: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 17.2% of respondentsKosovo: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 48.7% of respondentsSouth Africa: 1 1 if any conflict, else 0, 69% of respondentsZambia: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 80.9% of respondentsZimbabwe: 0 1 if any conflict, else 0, 84.8% of respondentsARGCHNDNKESTETHKENMLTNGARUSUKRZMBZWE

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5319.7e-9102
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5212.0e-8102
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2620.008102
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2500.012102

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 102 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.269 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.241 (without IDN) to +0.291 (without ZWE). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: ZWE (+0.029).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific13+0.69
Europe & Central Asia49-0.01
Latin America & Caribbean13+0.37
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12-0.13

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third34+0.38
Middle third34+0.29
Richest third34-0.06

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians61+0.19
Muslims27+0.33

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Never a European colony15+0.65
Spain12+0.73
United Kingdom23+0.01

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.262 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


1 if any conflict, else 0
% of respondents		Years
South Africa ZAF169%2025, 2014
Ukraine UKR129.1%2025, 2022
Turkiye TUR139.5%2025, 2022
Thailand THA138.1%2025, 2022
Rwanda RWA178.2%2025, 2014
Russian Federation RUS116.3%2025, 2022
West Bank and Gaza PSE158.5%2025, 2014
Philippines PHL181.8%2025, 2022
Pakistan PAK160.9%2025, 2022
Nigeria NGA190.3%2025, 2022
Myanmar MMR143.5%2025, 2022
Mali MLI173.9%2025, 2010
Mexico MEX160.6%2025, 2022
Lebanon LBN153.3%2025, 2022
Kenya KEN184.6%2025, 2022

Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Georeferenced Event Dataset; rate per population from Our World in Data
Haerpfer, C. et al., World Values Survey; EVS, European Values Study

Sources

Armed conflict present

Whether an armed conflict is taking place in the country

Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

One if any armed conflict took place on the country's territory that year, and zero if not. That makes it the site's first true yes-or-no measure. A link with a yes-or-no measure is a fair one: it compares the countries at war with the countries not at war. It answers a different question from the death rate: whether a country has a war at all, not how many people die. The two are treated as measuring the same thing, so their pair reads as two views of one thing, not as a finding. It is kept out of the crime score. A yes-or-no flag averaged into a combined score beside a rate would count the same conflicts twice.

Religious attendance

Share attending religious services frequently

World Values Survey Association and European Values Study · via Our World in Data · Free for non-commercial use with attribution · updated irregular (survey waves, roughly every 5 years)

The share who attend religious services at least once a month. This measures taking part, not belief or belonging to a religion. Those are three different things, and they can differ sharply. A country can be almost entirely religious by belonging and yet rarely attend anything. No "better" direction is set, and none could be defended. Attendance describes how people live. It does not show whether a country is doing well, and calling either end the good one would be a claim this site has no basis for. The survey runs in waves, not every year, so data for each country are sparse and uneven.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Armed conflict present and Religious attendance

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Armed conflict present changes Religious attendance, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Armed conflict present or Religious attendance