Do Alcohol consumption and HDI go together across countries?

Across 182 countries the link before adjusting for anything is r = +0.51, on a scale from -1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). A version that uses only each country's rank gives +0.53.

Does the link hold within countries over time, not just across countries?

Comparing each country only with itself across 2000-2020, and setting aside what happened worldwide in each year, the link is +0.210 (183 countries, 3,746 country-years). Using year-to-year changes, it is +0.094.

Does Alcohol consumption cause HDI?

This analysis cannot answer that. It shows only that the two go together. A link between two country measures, adjusted or not, does not show that either one changes the other. Country figures also say nothing about individual people.

Alcohol consumption vs. HDI

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 182 countries, Alcohol consumption and HDI rise and fall together at r = +0.51 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.15, which could easily be chance (q = 0.26, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of hdi, 0.624 to 0.861 points, alcohol consumption is 3.15 litres per adult per year higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2.64 litres per adult per year.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.512p = 1.5e-13 · 182 countries

After adjusting for national income+0.146p = 0.050 · likely range [-0.00, +0.29]

p, allowing for regions0.026standard error 0.050 · 7 regions

Check for luck (q)0.255across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Alcohol consumption · litres per adult per yearlink with income +0.51 · moderate

HDI · index, 0 to 1link with income +0.96 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

Method	r	p	Countries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted	+0.512	1.5e-13	182
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted	+0.530	1.4e-14	182
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income	+0.146	0.050	182
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income	+0.186	0.012	182

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 182 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.366 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.119 (without BRN) to +0.173 (without BFA). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BFA (+0.028).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

	n	r
East Asia & Pacific	27	+0.11
Europe & Central Asia	49	+0.09
Latin America & Caribbean	31	+0.32
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan	21	+0.22
Sub-Saharan Africa	46	+0.16

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

	n	r
Poorest third	61	-0.13
Middle third	60	+0.10
Richest third	61	+0.40

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

	n	r
Christians	108	+0.05
Muslims	48	-0.10

By last european coloniser

	n	r
France	25	-0.13
Never a European colony	21	+0.13
Spain	20	+0.19
United Kingdom	63	+0.24

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.146 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 21years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link also shows up within countries over time (r = +0.210). It holds even when looking only at changes from one year to the next (r = +0.094). This is the strongest kind of evidence available here: it holds when each country is compared only with itself, and it is not just a product of shared trends.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.146for comparison

Within countries+0.049each country vs itself

…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.210q = 0.001 · 183 countries

Year-on-year changes+0.094q = 0.008

Read with care.

Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,746 country-years (one country in one year), 183 countries, 2000–2020, about 21 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 4% for Alcohol consumption, 4% for HDI. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

Same year (lag 0): +0.210. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data

	litres per adult per year	index, 0 to 1	Years
Romania ROU	16.8	0.845	2020, 2023
Georgia GEO	14.4	0.844	2020, 2023
Latvia LVA	12.9	0.889	2020, 2023
Lithuania LTU	12.1	0.895	2020, 2023
Czechia CZE	12	0.915	2020, 2023
Germany DEU	11.8	0.959	2020, 2023
Poland POL	11.7	0.906	2020, 2023
Belarus BLR	11.6	0.824	2020, 2023
Bulgaria BGR	11.6	0.845	2020, 2023
Austria AUT	11.5	0.93	2020, 2023
Uganda UGA	11.3	0.582	2020, 2023
Burkina Faso BFA	11.3	0.459	2020, 2023
Moldova MDA	11.1	0.785	2020, 2023
Tanzania TZA	10.9	0.555	2020, 2023
Luxembourg LUX	10.8	0.922	2020, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025

Sources

Alcohol consumption

Total alcohol consumption per capita (litres of pure alcohol, age 15+)

World Health Organization Global Health Observatory · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Recorded drinking plus an estimate of unrecorded drinking, per person aged fifteen and over. Ends in 2020. No "better" direction is set, and the reason is the strongest fact about this measure on the site. Of everything here, it is what most separates countries by their largest religion. Alcohol is forbidden in Islam, so a low figure in a Muslim-majority country is religious practice showing up in a health statistic. Calling that end "best" would make this site score religious practice, which it refuses to do everywhere else. Every measure of attendance, prayer, marriage and belief here has no "better" direction for exactly that reason. This is the same fact arriving through a different column. The World Health Organization is right that alcohol carries a real burden of disease, and the site does not dispute it. It declines to turn that into a score for a country, when the thing being scored would largely be how many of its people are Muslim.

HDI

Human Development Index

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

The geometric mean (a kind of average that multiplies the parts together) of three parts: income per person (GNI per capita), life expectancy, and schooling (expected years and average years). All four inputs are on this site, and each is flagged. So a link between the HDI and any of them is shown for what it is: the index matching a part of itself. For the same reason it is kept out of this site's own topic scores. Those already contain its parts, and adding it would count each twice. It is the most-cited development index there is. It is here mostly so its parts can be read separately.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2019–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Alcohol consumption and HDI

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Alcohol consumption changes HDI, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.