placestats

Agricultural land vs. Migrant share of population

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 195 countries, Agricultural land and Migrant share of population rise and fall together at r = -0.34 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.22, q = 0.0029, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of migrant share of population, 1.55% to 14.2% of population, agricultural land is 6.38% of land area lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.85% of land area.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.342p = 9.5e-7 · 195 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.224p = 0.002 · likely range [-0.35, -0.09]
p, allowing for regions0.028standard error 0.078 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.003across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Agricultural land · % of land arealink with income -0.29 · independent
Migrant share of population · % of populationlink with income +0.73 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Agricultural land · % of land area →Migrant share of population · % of population →0.445%86.5%0.1%76.7%Aruba: 11.1% of land area, 68% of populationAfghanistan: 58.4% of land area, 0.2% of populationAngola: 36.9% of land area, 1.8% of populationAlbania: 38.1% of land area, 1.7% of populationAndorra: 39.9% of land area, 59.1% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 5.52% of land area, 74% of populationArgentina: 42.4% of land area, 4.3% of populationArmenia: 58.6% of land area, 9.2% of populationAntigua and Barbuda: 20.5% of land area, 32.5% of populationAustralia: 47.2% of land area, 30.4% of populationAustria: 31.5% of land area, 25.5% of populationAzerbaijan: 57.8% of land area, 2.1% of populationBurundi: 83.9% of land area, 2.8% of populationBelgium: 44.4% of land area, 20% of populationBenin: 41.8% of land area, 2.9% of populationBurkina Faso: 53.4% of land area, 3.1% of populationBangladesh: 72.3% of land area, 1.7% of populationBulgaria: 46.1% of land area, 4.4% of populationBahrain: 10.1% of land area, 52.3% of populationBahamas, The: 1.3% of land area, 16.8% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 21.7% of land area, 1.1% of populationBelarus: 39.6% of land area, 11.6% of populationBelize: 7.98% of land area, 16.5% of populationBermuda: 5.56% of land area, 31.2% of populationBolivia: 35.8% of land area, 1.5% of populationBrazil: 28.3% of land area, 0.7% of populationBarbados: 23.3% of land area, 12.5% of populationBrunei Darussalam: 2.54% of land area, 25.9% of populationBhutan: 13.8% of land area, 7% of populationBotswana: 45.6% of land area, 4.6% of populationCentral African Republic: 9.1% of land area, 1.8% of populationCanada: 6.47% of land area, 22.2% of populationSwitzerland: 37.8% of land area, 31.1% of populationChile: 14.4% of land area, 7.8% of populationChina: 55.4% of land area, 0.1% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 86.5% of land area, 9% of populationCameroon: 20.9% of land area, 2.2% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 15.5% of land area, 1% of populationCongo, Rep.: 31.2% of land area, 6.1% of populationColombia: 36.5% of land area, 5.8% of populationComoros: 71.5% of land area, 1.4% of populationCabo Verde: 19.6% of land area, 3.1% of populationCosta Rica: 33.1% of land area, 12.2% of populationCayman Islands: 11.3% of land area, 42.9% of populationCyprus: 14% of land area, 14.9% of populationCzechia: 45.8% of land area, 9.5% of populationGermany: 47.5% of land area, 19.8% of populationDjibouti: 73.5% of land area, 10.8% of populationDominica: 33.3% of land area, 12.7% of populationDenmark: 65.5% of land area, 14.2% of populationDominican Republic: 55.4% of land area, 6.5% of populationAlgeria: 17.4% of land area, 0.6% of populationEcuador: 21.5% of land area, 4.1% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 4.08% of land area, 1% of populationSpain: 49.6% of land area, 18.5% of populationEstonia: 23.1% of land area, 14.9% of populationEthiopia: 34.1% of land area, 0.9% of populationFinland: 7.44% of land area, 9.2% of populationFiji: 17.1% of land area, 1.5% of populationFrance: 52.5% of land area, 13.8% of populationFaroe Islands: 70.1% of land area, 14.6% of populationMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 7.14% of land area, 2.6% of populationGabon: 8.36% of land area, 17.7% of populationUnited Kingdom: 70.3% of land area, 17.1% of populationGeorgia: 34.1% of land area, 2.1% of populationGhana: 55.4% of land area, 1.5% of populationGuinea: 73.2% of land area, 0.8% of populationGambia, The: 62.6% of land area, 8.6% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 29.9% of land area, 0.7% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 3.73% of land area, 13.2% of populationGreece: 41.7% of land area, 14.2% of populationGrenada: 23.5% of land area, 6.3% of populationGreenland: 0.592% of land area, 10.4% of populationGuatemala: 43% of land area, 0.5% of populationGuyana: 3.41% of land area, 6.5% of populationHong Kong SAR, China: 3.81% of land area, 41.3% of populationHonduras: 32% of land area, 0.4% of populationCroatia: 26.6% of land area, 13.6% of populationHaiti: 65.1% of land area, 0.2% of populationHungary: 55.7% of land area, 7.1% of populationIndonesia: 29.1% of land area, 0.2% of populationIndia: 60.1% of land area, 0.3% of populationIreland: 60.8% of land area, 23.1% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 29% of land area, 4.2% of populationIraq: 21.8% of land area, 0.8% of populationIceland: 16.2% of land area, 25.1% of populationIsrael: 24.8% of land area, 22.3% of populationItaly: 44.3% of land area, 11% of populationJamaica: 38.5% of land area, 0.8% of populationJordan: 11.5% of land area, 45.7% of populationJapan: 12.6% of land area, 2.8% of populationKazakhstan: 79.4% of land area, 10.1% of populationKenya: 49.5% of land area, 1.8% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 54% of land area, 2.7% of populationCambodia: 34.9% of land area, 0.5% of populationKiribati: 42% of land area, 2.5% of populationSt. Kitts and Nevis: 23.1% of land area, 17% of populationKorea, Rep.: 16.1% of land area, 3.5% of populationKuwait: 8.42% of land area, 67.3% of populationLao PDR: 9.91% of land area, 0.7% of populationLebanon: 65.9% of land area, 24.5% of populationLiberia: 20% of land area, 1.3% of populationLibya: 8.72% of land area, 12.2% of populationSt. Lucia: 16.3% of land area, 4.5% of populationSri Lanka: 48.6% of land area, 0.2% of populationLesotho: 77.8% of land area, 0.6% of populationLithuania: 45.9% of land area, 6.1% of populationLuxembourg: 51.7% of land area, 51.2% of populationLatvia: 31.7% of land area, 11.8% of populationMorocco: 66.7% of land area, 0.3% of populationMoldova: 74.1% of land area, 6.2% of populationMadagascar: 70.3% of land area, 0.1% of populationMaldives: 19.8% of land area, 14.2% of populationMexico: 50.7% of land area, 1.3% of populationMarshall Islands: 38.9% of land area, 8.8% of populationNorth Macedonia: 49.6% of land area, 8.3% of populationMali: 35.5% of land area, 2.2% of populationMalta: 25.9% of land area, 37% of populationMyanmar: 19.9% of land area, 0.1% of populationMontenegro: 19.6% of land area, 14.4% of populationMongolia: 69% of land area, 0.6% of populationMozambique: 52.8% of land area, 1% of populationMauritania: 38.5% of land area, 3.8% of populationMauritius: 43% of land area, 2.3% of populationMalawi: 64.2% of land area, 0.9% of populationMalaysia: 26.1% of land area, 10.7% of populationNamibia: 47.1% of land area, 3.8% of populationNiger: 36.8% of land area, 1.7% of populationNigeria: 76.2% of land area, 0.6% of populationNicaragua: 42.3% of land area, 0.6% of populationNetherlands: 53.5% of land area, 16.2% of populationNorway: 2.7% of land area, 18.2% of populationNepal: 26.1% of land area, 1.6% of populationNaoero: 20% of land area, 21.3% of populationNew Zealand: 36.9% of land area, 28.2% of populationOman: 4.76% of land area, 43.2% of populationPakistan: 46.7% of land area, 1.7% of populationPanama: 29.5% of land area, 10.6% of populationPeru: 19.1% of land area, 5.4% of populationPhilippines: 42.7% of land area, 0.1% of populationPalau: 9.35% of land area, 29.5% of populationPapua New Guinea: 3.1% of land area, 0.3% of populationPoland: 47.6% of land area, 4.5% of populationPuerto Rico (US): 19% of land area, 6.9% of populationPortugal: 43.3% of land area, 10.8% of populationParaguay: 54.1% of land area, 2.6% of populationWest Bank and Gaza: 64.9% of land area, 5% of populationQatar: 6.44% of land area, 76.7% of populationRomania: 55.3% of land area, 3.4% of populationRussian Federation: 13.2% of land area, 5.3% of populationRwanda: 76.3% of land area, 3.6% of populationSaudi Arabia: 80.8% of land area, 40.3% of populationSudan: 60.3% of land area, 4.8% of populationSenegal: 49.4% of land area, 1.5% of populationSingapore: 0.919% of land area, 48.7% of populationSolomon Islands: 3.9% of land area, 0.3% of populationSierra Leone: 54.7% of land area, 0.6% of populationEl Salvador: 57.7% of land area, 0.7% of populationSan Marino: 38.3% of land area, 17.4% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 70.3% of land area, 0.4% of populationSerbia: 40.4% of land area, 10.6% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 44.8% of land area, 0.8% of populationSuriname: 0.445% of land area, 8.2% of populationSlovak Republic: 38% of land area, 5.9% of populationSlovenia: 30.4% of land area, 14.9% of populationSweden: 7.32% of land area, 21.4% of populationEswatini: 69.5% of land area, 2.7% of populationSeychelles: 3.37% of land area, 10.2% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 74.1% of land area, 3.6% of populationTurks and Caicos Islands: 1.05% of land area, 61.1% of populationChad: 40% of land area, 6.3% of populationTogo: 70.2% of land area, 3% of populationThailand: 43.8% of land area, 4.4% of populationTajikistan: 27.9% of land area, 2.6% of populationTurkmenistan: 84.2% of land area, 2.6% of populationTimor-Leste: 23% of land area, 0.6% of populationTonga: 48.6% of land area, 3.4% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 10.5% of land area, 7.5% of populationTunisia: 62.4% of land area, 0.5% of populationTurkiye: 50.1% of land area, 8.1% of populationTuvalu: 60% of land area, 2.6% of populationTanzania: 44.6% of land area, 0.7% of populationUganda: 71.9% of land area, 4.1% of populationUkraine: 71.3% of land area, 13.4% of populationUruguay: 81.4% of land area, 4.7% of populationUnited States: 46.1% of land area, 15.2% of populationUzbekistan: 58.1% of land area, 3.2% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 17.9% of land area, 4.8% of populationVirgin Islands (U.S.): 9.43% of land area, 66.9% of populationViet Nam: 39.2% of land area, 0.3% of populationVanuatu: 15.3% of land area, 1% of populationSamoa: 17.6% of land area, 1.8% of populationSouth Africa: 79.4% of land area, 4.1% of populationZambia: 32.1% of land area, 1.2% of populationZimbabwe: 41.8% of land area, 2.6% of populationANDAREBDIEGYKWTLSOLUXPNGQATSAUSLBTKM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3429.5e-7195
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.2972.5e-5195
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2240.002195
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1330.064195

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 195 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.118 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.247 (without SAU) to -0.205 (without TCA). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SAU (-0.023).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific30-0.35
Europe & Central Asia52+0.03
Latin America & Caribbean36-0.32
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22-0.11
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.24

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third65+0.27
Middle third65-0.31
Richest third65-0.35

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians111-0.11
Muslims49-0.28

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.14
Never a European colony21-0.08
Spain20-0.72
United Kingdom63-0.14

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.096 after dropping 16 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 31years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = -0.163) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = —). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.224for comparison
Within countries-0.165each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.163q = 0.020 · 206 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,411 country-years (one country in one year), 206 countries, 1990–2020, about 7 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 3% for Agricultural land, 2% for Migrant share of population. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Migrant share of population trails Agricultural land →lag -10: r = -0.114 (n = 1,030)lag -9: r = -0.123 (n = 1,020)lag -8: r = -0.132 (n = 1,233)lag -7: r = -0.135 (n = 1,233)lag -6: r = -0.137 (n = 1,234)lag -5: r = -0.137 (n = 1,234)lag -4: r = -0.128 (n = 1,224)lag -3: r = -0.147 (n = 1,437)lag -2: r = -0.142 (n = 1,433)lag -1: r = -0.161 (n = 1,415)lag +0: r = -0.163 (n = 1,411)lag +1: r = -0.144 (n = 1,437)lag +2: r = -0.136 (n = 1,437)lag +3: r = -0.134 (n = 1,434)lag +4: r = -0.145 (n = 1,415)lag +5: r = -0.141 (n = 1,411)lag +6: r = -0.108 (n = 1,224)lag +7: r = -0.096 (n = 1,224)lag +8: r = -0.079 (n = 1,220)lag +9: r = -0.082 (n = 1,201)lag +10: r = -0.081 (n = 1,197)

Same year (lag 0): -0.163. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of land area
% of population		Years
Cote d'Ivoire CIV86.5%9%2023, 2024
Turkmenistan TKM84.2%2.6%2023, 2024
Burundi BDI83.9%2.8%2023, 2024
Uruguay URY81.4%4.7%2023, 2024
Saudi Arabia SAU80.8%40.3%2023, 2024
South Africa ZAF79.4%4.1%2023, 2024
Kazakhstan KAZ79.4%10.1%2023, 2024
Lesotho LSO77.8%0.6%2023, 2024
Rwanda RWA76.3%3.6%2023, 2024
Nigeria NGA76.2%0.6%2023, 2024
Moldova MDA74.1%6.2%2023, 2024
Syrian Arab Republic SYR74.1%3.6%2023, 2024
Djibouti DJI73.5%10.8%2023, 2024
Guinea GIN73.2%0.8%2023, 2024
Bangladesh BGD72.3%1.7%2023, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Agricultural land

Agricultural land (% of land area)

Food and Agriculture Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Migrant share of population

International migrant stock (% of population)

UN Population Division, International Migrant Stock · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

People living outside the country they were born in, as a share of the population. It counts people at one moment, while the net migration already on the site counts moves over a year. Published every five years until 2020, and for 2024.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2023–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Agricultural land and Migrant share of population

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Agricultural land changes Migrant share of population, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Agricultural land or Migrant share of population