placestats

Age at childbearing vs. Interpersonal trust

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 107 countries, Age at childbearing and Interpersonal trust rise and fall together at r = +0.51 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.25, which could easily be chance (q = 0.39, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of interpersonal trust, 12.9% to 31.6% of respondents, age at childbearing is 1 years higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.478 years.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.510p = 2.0e-8 · 107 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.251p = 0.010 · likely range [+0.06, +0.42]
p, allowing for regions0.060standard error 0.108 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.388across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Age at childbearing · yearslink with income +0.44 · moderate
Interpersonal trust · % of respondentslink with income +0.66 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Age at childbearing · years →Interpersonal trust · % of respondents →25.933.42.14%73.9%Albania: 29.1 years, 2.77% of respondentsAndorra: 32.5 years, 25.5% of respondentsArgentina: 29.1 years, 19.2% of respondentsArmenia: 27.8 years, 17.5% of respondentsAustralia: 31.4 years, 48.5% of respondentsAustria: 31.2 years, 49.8% of respondentsAzerbaijan: 25.9 years, 26.3% of respondentsBelgium: 31 years, 35.7% of respondentsBurkina Faso: 29.2 years, 13.8% of respondentsBangladesh: 26 years, 12.9% of respondentsBulgaria: 27.9 years, 17.1% of respondentsBosnia and Herzegovina: 29 years, 9.64% of respondentsBelarus: 28.7 years, 40% of respondentsBolivia: 28.1 years, 8.51% of respondentsBrazil: 27.8 years, 6.52% of respondentsCanada: 31.4 years, 46.7% of respondentsSwitzerland: 32.3 years, 58.5% of respondentsChile: 31.2 years, 12.9% of respondentsChina: 29 years, 63.5% of respondentsColombia: 26.6 years, 4.54% of respondentsCyprus: 31.7 years, 6.6% of respondentsCzechia: 30.4 years, 27.3% of respondentsGermany: 31.5 years, 41.6% of respondentsDenmark: 31.6 years, 73.9% of respondentsAlgeria: 31.5 years, 17.2% of respondentsEcuador: 27.4 years, 5.75% of respondentsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 28 years, 7.33% of respondentsSpain: 32.5 years, 41% of respondentsEstonia: 31 years, 33.9% of respondentsEthiopia: 29.1 years, 11.9% of respondentsFinland: 31.5 years, 68.4% of respondentsFrance: 31.6 years, 26.3% of respondentsUnited Kingdom: 30.9 years, 43.3% of respondentsGeorgia: 28.5 years, 9.02% of respondentsGhana: 29.5 years, 5.03% of respondentsGreece: 32 years, 8.45% of respondentsGuatemala: 27.3 years, 18% of respondentsHong Kong SAR, China: 32.9 years, 36.4% of respondentsCroatia: 30.7 years, 13.6% of respondentsHaiti: 29.6 years, 21.3% of respondentsHungary: 30 years, 27.2% of respondentsIndonesia: 28.9 years, 4.64% of respondentsIndia: 27.5 years, 16.9% of respondentsIreland: 32.7 years, 37.3% of respondentsIran, Islamic Rep.: 28.8 years, 14.8% of respondentsIraq: 28.6 years, 11% of respondentsIceland: 30.8 years, 62.3% of respondentsItaly: 32.3 years, 26.6% of respondentsJordan: 29.8 years, 15.9% of respondentsJapan: 31.9 years, 33.7% of respondentsKazakhstan: 29 years, 22.8% of respondentsKenya: 28.2 years, 9.48% of respondentsKyrgyz Republic: 28.5 years, 12.8% of respondentsKorea, Rep.: 33.4 years, 32.9% of respondentsKuwait: 30.3 years, 28.5% of respondentsLebanon: 29.2 years, 9.92% of respondentsLibya: 31.9 years, 9.11% of respondentsLithuania: 30.3 years, 31.7% of respondentsLuxembourg: 32.3 years, 31.4% of respondentsLatvia: 30.3 years, 22.2% of respondentsMacao SAR, China: 32.1 years, 41.4% of respondentsMorocco: 29.9 years, 16.5% of respondentsMoldova: 28 years, 14.1% of respondentsMaldives: 30.2 years, 21.1% of respondentsMexico: 26.8 years, 10.5% of respondentsNorth Macedonia: 29 years, 15.1% of respondentsMali: 28.9 years, 14.9% of respondentsMalta: 30.9 years, 21.3% of respondentsMyanmar: 28.8 years, 15.1% of respondentsMontenegro: 30.2 years, 21.7% of respondentsMongolia: 29.3 years, 26% of respondentsMalaysia: 31 years, 19.6% of respondentsNigeria: 29.2 years, 13% of respondentsNicaragua: 26 years, 4.25% of respondentsNetherlands: 31.8 years, 57% of respondentsNorway: 31.6 years, 72.1% of respondentsNew Zealand: 30.6 years, 56.6% of respondentsPakistan: 28.9 years, 23.3% of respondentsPeru: 28.8 years, 4.16% of respondentsPhilippines: 29 years, 5.33% of respondentsPoland: 29.9 years, 24.1% of respondentsPuerto Rico (US): 27.8 years, 17.7% of respondentsPortugal: 31.7 years, 16.9% of respondentsWest Bank and Gaza: 28.6 years, 15.8% of respondentsQatar: 30.4 years, 21.4% of respondentsRomania: 28.1 years, 12.1% of respondentsRussian Federation: 28.9 years, 22.9% of respondentsRwanda: 30.6 years, 16.6% of respondentsSingapore: 32.3 years, 34.4% of respondentsSerbia: 29.5 years, 16.3% of respondentsSlovak Republic: 28.9 years, 21.6% of respondentsSlovenia: 30.4 years, 25.3% of respondentsSweden: 31.6 years, 62.8% of respondentsThailand: 28.3 years, 28.9% of respondentsTajikistan: 26.5 years, 20.6% of respondentsTrinidad and Tobago: 27.8 years, 3.2% of respondentsTunisia: 31.3 years, 13.8% of respondentsTurkiye: 29.2 years, 14% of respondentsUkraine: 28.1 years, 28.3% of respondentsUruguay: 29.2 years, 14.5% of respondentsUnited States: 29.9 years, 37% of respondentsUzbekistan: 27 years, 33.6% of respondentsViet Nam: 27.2 years, 27.7% of respondentsKosovo: 29.7 years, 10.5% of respondentsSouth Africa: 28.3 years, 23.3% of respondentsZambia: 28.4 years, 10.8% of respondentsZimbabwe: 28.1 years, 2.14% of respondentsAZEBGDCHNCOLCYPDNKFINGRCLBYNICNORUZB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5102.0e-8107
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5161.3e-8107
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2510.010107
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1320.177107

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 107 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.260 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.230 (without TTO) to +0.276 (without CHN). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: CHN (+0.026).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions
  • much weaker within income groups than across them (mostly a gap between richer and poorer countries)

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific15-0.29
Europe & Central Asia49+0.03
Latin America & Caribbean14+0.48
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan14+0.05

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third36-0.12
Middle third35+0.06
Richest third36+0.15

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians62+0.40
Muslims29-0.24

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Never a European colony15+0.03
Spain12+0.35
United Kingdom25+0.16

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.277 after dropping 6 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


years
% of respondents		Years
Korea, Rep. KOR33.432.9%2023, 2022
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG32.936.4%2023, 2022
Ireland IRL32.737.3%2023, 2010
Spain ESP32.541%2023, 2022
Andorra AND32.525.5%2023, 2022
Luxembourg LUX32.331.4%2023, 2010
Italy ITA32.326.6%2023, 2022
Switzerland CHE32.358.5%2023, 2022
Singapore SGP32.334.4%2023, 2022
Macao SAR, China MAC32.141.4%2023, 2022
Greece GRC328.45%2023, 2022
Japan JPN31.933.7%2023, 2022
Libya LBY31.99.11%2023, 2022
Netherlands NLD31.857%2023, 2022
Portugal PRT31.716.9%2023, 2022

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024 and Estimates and Projections of Women of Reproductive Age Who Are Married or in a Union
Haerpfer, C. et al., World Values Survey; EVS, European Values Study

Sources

Age at childbearing

Mean age of mothers at childbearing

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated biennial

The average age of women giving birth in the year, based on how many births women of each age have. Later childbearing goes with fewer births, but not one for one. A country can have late but plentiful births, or early but few. No "better" direction is set.

Interpersonal trust

Share agreeing that most people can be trusted

World Values Survey Association and European Values Study · via Our World in Data · Free for non-commercial use with attribution · updated irregular (survey waves, roughly every 5 years)

The share who answer "most people can be trusted" rather than "you can't be too careful". Trust in other people is the classic measure of social ties (social capital). It is only loosely linked to national income. That makes it one of the few measures here where adjusting for GDP is a real test, not a foregone result. The survey runs in waves, not every year. So data for each country are sparse and uneven, and two readings for a country may be five or more years apart.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Age at childbearing and Interpersonal trust

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Age at childbearing changes Interpersonal trust, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Age at childbearing or Interpersonal trust