placestats

African ancestry vs. Population growth

Holds up after adjusting for income

A country is not a person, and ancestry is not destiny. Countries where more people have ancestors from one part of the world also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does notfollow that people with that ancestry are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. Ancestry also goes very closely with region and with history, including colonisation and the Atlantic slave trade, and with national income. So much of what looks like ancestry here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures and the region-by-region view are for. The shares are one estimate, for around the year 2000, of where people’s ancestors lived in 1500, not how anyone identifies.

Across 158 countries, African ancestry and Population growth rise and fall together at r = +0.54 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.30 (q = 0.043, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak positive link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of african ancestry, 0% to 95.9% of population, population growth is 1.44% per year higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.953% per year.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.544p = 1.6e-13 · 158 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.298p = 0.000 · likely range [+0.15, +0.43]
p, allowing for regions0.004standard error 0.066 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.043across 13,797 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

African ancestry · % of populationlink with income -0.59 · moderate
Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

African ancestry · % of population →Population growth · % per year →0%100%-1.75%4.68%Afghanistan: 0% of population, 2.77% per yearAngola: 98% of population, 3% per yearAlbania: 0% of population, -1.17% per yearUnited Arab Emirates: 0% of population, 4.68% per yearArgentina: 2% of population, 0.339% per yearArmenia: 0% of population, 1.74% per yearAustralia: 0% of population, 1.53% per yearAustria: 0% of population, 0.328% per yearAzerbaijan: 0% of population, 0.432% per yearBurundi: 100% of population, 2.41% per yearBelgium: 0% of population, 0.699% per yearBenin: 100% of population, 2.4% per yearBurkina Faso: 100% of population, 2.21% per yearBangladesh: 0% of population, 1.22% per yearBulgaria: 0% of population, -0.126% per yearBahrain: 0% of population, 0.734% per yearBosnia and Herzegovina: 0% of population, -0.766% per yearBelarus: 0% of population, -0.512% per yearBelize: 17.4% of population, 1.39% per yearBolivia: 0.907% of population, 1.35% per yearBrazil: 15.7% of population, 0.383% per yearBhutan: 0% of population, 0.65% per yearBotswana: 98.5% of population, 1.61% per yearCentral African Republic: 99.4% of population, 3.37% per yearCanada: 1.53% of population, 0.939% per yearSwitzerland: 0% of population, 0.96% per yearChile: 1.4% of population, 0.48% per yearChina: 0% of population, -0.17% per yearCote d'Ivoire: 99.3% of population, 2.4% per yearCameroon: 100% of population, 2.56% per yearCongo, Dem. Rep.: 99.5% of population, 3.2% per yearCongo, Rep.: 100% of population, 2.36% per yearColombia: 17.3% of population, 1.01% per yearComoros: 100% of population, 1.85% per yearCabo Verde: 58.6% of population, 0.466% per yearCosta Rica: 8.91% of population, 0.448% per yearCyprus: 0% of population, 0.914% per yearCzechia: 0% of population, -0.167% per yearGermany: 0% of population, -0.0304% per yearDenmark: 0% of population, 0.537% per yearDominican Republic: 44.4% of population, 0.81% per yearAlgeria: 0% of population, 1.32% per yearEcuador: 6.97% of population, 0.848% per yearEgypt, Arab Rep.: 5.5% of population, 1.56% per yearSpain: 0% of population, 1.03% per yearEstonia: 0% of population, -0.428% per yearEthiopia: 100% of population, 2.55% per yearFinland: 0% of population, 0.471% per yearFiji: 0% of population, 0.469% per yearFrance: 0% of population, 0.246% per yearGabon: 99% of population, 2.11% per yearUnited Kingdom: 1.8% of population, 0.297% per yearGeorgia: 0% of population, 3.18% per yearGhana: 100% of population, 1.83% per yearGuinea: 100% of population, 2.31% per yearGambia, The: 99.5% of population, 2.23% per yearGuinea-Bissau: 96.5% of population, 2.16% per yearEquatorial Guinea: 94.3% of population, 2.4% per yearGreece: 0% of population, 0.0848% per yearGuatemala: 4.14% of population, 1.52% per yearGuyana: 39% of population, 0.588% per yearHong Kong SAR, China: 0% of population, -0.335% per yearHonduras: 2% of population, 1.65% per yearCroatia: 0% of population, 0.258% per yearHaiti: 97.5% of population, 1.13% per yearHungary: 0% of population, -0.501% per yearIndonesia: 0% of population, 0.785% per yearIndia: 0% of population, 0.887% per yearIreland: 0% of population, 1.63% per yearIran, Islamic Rep.: 0% of population, 0.924% per yearIraq: 0% of population, 2.1% per yearIsrael: 0.982% of population, 1.2% per yearItaly: 0% of population, -0.0629% per yearJamaica: 89% of population, -0.0739% per yearJordan: 0% of population, -0.279% per yearJapan: 0% of population, -0.492% per yearKazakhstan: 0% of population, 1.21% per yearKenya: 100% of population, 1.93% per yearKyrgyz Republic: 0% of population, 1.66% per yearCambodia: 0% of population, 1.18% per yearKorea, Rep.: 0% of population, -0.129% per yearKuwait: 0% of population, -0.655% per yearLao PDR: 0% of population, 1.32% per yearLebanon: 0% of population, 0.746% per yearLiberia: 100% of population, 2.09% per yearLibya: 3.5% of population, 1.04% per yearSri Lanka: 0% of population, -0.733% per yearLesotho: 100% of population, 1.1% per yearLithuania: 0% of population, 0.0172% per yearLuxembourg: 0% of population, 1.46% per yearLatvia: 0% of population, -0.988% per yearMorocco: 1% of population, 0.914% per yearMoldova: 0% of population, -1.75% per yearMadagascar: 99.4% of population, 2.4% per yearMexico: 6.7% of population, 0.826% per yearNorth Macedonia: 0% of population, -0.189% per yearMali: 99.1% of population, 2.9% per yearMalta: 0% of population, 1.89% per yearMyanmar: 0% of population, 0.641% per yearMongolia: 0% of population, 1.25% per yearMozambique: 100% of population, 2.85% per yearMauritania: 100% of population, 2.78% per yearMauritius: 13% of population, -0.164% per yearMalawi: 100% of population, 2.56% per yearMalaysia: 0% of population, 1.17% per yearNamibia: 89.2% of population, 2.05% per yearNiger: 98.1% of population, 3.22% per yearNigeria: 100% of population, 2.06% per yearNicaragua: 9% of population, 1.31% per yearNetherlands: 0.75% of population, 0.522% per yearNorway: 0% of population, 0.69% per yearNepal: 0% of population, -0.111% per yearNew Zealand: 0% of population, 0.654% per yearOman: 1.25% of population, 3.96% per yearPakistan: 0% of population, 1.56% per yearPanama: 13% of population, 1.22% per yearPeru: 5.72% of population, 1.04% per yearPhilippines: 0% of population, 0.811% per yearPapua New Guinea: 0% of population, 1.75% per yearPoland: 0% of population, -0.338% per yearPuerto Rico (US): 15.8% of population, -0.554% per yearPortugal: 0.61% of population, 1.03% per yearParaguay: 1% of population, 1.2% per yearQatar: 15.1% of population, 3.92% per yearRomania: 0% of population, -0.166% per yearRussian Federation: 0% of population, -0.109% per yearRwanda: 100% of population, 2.17% per yearSaudi Arabia: 1.5% of population, 4.63% per yearSudan: 98.8% of population, 2.38% per yearSenegal: 98.2% of population, 2.3% per yearSingapore: 0% of population, 1.22% per yearSierra Leone: 100% of population, 2.04% per yearEl Salvador: 0% of population, 0.43% per yearSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 98.9% of population, 3.34% per yearSlovak Republic: 0% of population, -0.152% per yearSlovenia: 0% of population, 0.168% per yearSweden: 0% of population, 0.254% per yearEswatini: 96.4% of population, 1.07% per yearSyrian Arab Republic: 0% of population, 3.77% per yearChad: 100% of population, 3.41% per yearTogo: 100% of population, 2.18% per yearThailand: 0% of population, -0.0672% per yearTajikistan: 0% of population, 1.83% per yearTurkmenistan: 0% of population, 1.65% per yearTimor-Leste: 0% of population, 1.27% per yearTrinidad and Tobago: 46% of population, -0.0416% per yearTunisia: 0% of population, 0.58% per yearTurkiye: 0% of population, 0.42% per yearTanzania: 100% of population, 2.86% per yearUganda: 100% of population, 2.7% per yearUkraine: 0% of population, 2.92% per yearUruguay: 4% of population, -0.0561% per yearUnited States: 9.64% of population, 0.522% per yearUzbekistan: 0% of population, 1.88% per yearViet Nam: 0% of population, 0.603% per yearSouth Africa: 78.7% of population, 1.15% per yearZambia: 99% of population, 2.77% per yearZimbabwe: 99% of population, 1.88% per yearALBARECAFJAMLSOLVAMDAOMNSAUSOMTCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5441.6e-13158
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5651.1e-14158
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2980.000158
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3497.7e-6158

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 158 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.246 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.282 (without NPL) to +0.329 (without SYR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SYR (+0.032).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
Europe & Central Asia45+0.03
Latin America & Caribbean23-0.44
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20+0.24
Sub-Saharan Africa44+0.55

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third53+0.41
Middle third52+0.20
Richest third53+0.04

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians92+0.31
Muslims45+0.32

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24+0.30
Never a European colony21+0.15
Spain19+0.69
United Kingdom46+0.28

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.320 after dropping 2 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of population
% per year		Years
Uganda UGA100%2.7%2000, 2025
Tanzania TZA100%2.86%2000, 2025
Togo TGO100%2.18%2000, 2025
Chad TCD100%3.41%2000, 2025
Sierra Leone SLE100%2.04%2000, 2025
Rwanda RWA100%2.17%2000, 2025
Nigeria NGA100%2.06%2000, 2025
Malawi MWI100%2.56%2000, 2025
Mauritania MRT100%2.78%2000, 2025
Mozambique MOZ100%2.85%2000, 2025
Lesotho LSO100%1.1%2000, 2025
Liberia LBR100%2.09%2000, 2025
Kenya KEN100%1.93%2000, 2025
Guinea GIN100%2.31%2000, 2025
Ghana GHA100%1.83%2000, 2025

Putterman, L. and Weil, D. N. (2010), 'Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality', Quarterly Journal of Economics 125(4); World Migration Matrix version 1.1 (2009).
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

African ancestry

Sub-Saharan African ancestry (share of the population)

Louis Putterman and David N. Weil, Brown University · No licence stated; used with citation · updated one edition (version 1.1, 2009)

The estimated share of today's population whose ancestors in the year 1500 lived in sub-Saharan Africa. This is the closest thing to race shares that can be compared across countries: national censuses each use their own race and ethnic categories, and most countries record none. It is about where people's ancestors lived, not how anyone identifies, and it is one estimate for around the year 2000, built from history, migration records and genetic studies. Every country's six ancestry shares add up to 100%, so they are linked to each other by arithmetic. No "better" direction is set.

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2000–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 13,797 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore African ancestry and Population growth

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that African ancestry changes Population growth, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with African ancestry or Population growth