placestats

Adult obesity vs. Population 65+

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 188 countries, Adult obesity and Population 65+ rise and fall together at r = +0.05 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). There is almost no link to explain.

Comparing countries across the middle half of population 65+, 3.93% to 16.2% of population, adult obesity is worse by 1.13% of adults at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap reverses, to 7.22% of adults the other way.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.052p = 0.475 · 188 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.240p = 0.001 · likely range [-0.37, -0.10]
p, allowing for regions0.122standard error 0.133 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.034across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Adult obesity · % of adultslink with income +0.34 · moderate
Population 65+ · % of populationlink with income +0.76 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Adult obesity · % of adults →Population 65+ · % of population →2.4%73.8%1.7%30%Afghanistan: 20.6% of adults, 2.43% of populationAngola: 12.7% of adults, 2.89% of populationAlbania: 24.1% of adults, 17.6% of populationAndorra: 17.1% of adults, 16.6% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 31.6% of adults, 1.79% of populationArgentina: 37.2% of adults, 12.6% of populationArmenia: 25% of adults, 14.4% of populationAntigua and Barbuda: 34.6% of adults, 12.3% of populationAustralia: 30.6% of adults, 18.1% of populationAustria: 16.5% of adults, 21.1% of populationAzerbaijan: 27.6% of adults, 9.17% of populationBurundi: 5.18% of adults, 2.55% of populationBelgium: 20.8% of adults, 21% of populationBenin: 12.2% of adults, 3.15% of populationBurkina Faso: 7.69% of adults, 2.68% of populationBangladesh: 5.75% of adults, 6.67% of populationBulgaria: 20.3% of adults, 22.2% of populationBahrain: 34.9% of adults, 4.02% of populationBahamas, The: 48.3% of adults, 12.1% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 21% of adults, 22.9% of populationBelarus: 20.6% of adults, 18.3% of populationBelize: 43.4% of adults, 5.23% of populationBermuda: 34.1% of adults, 22.6% of populationBolivia: 29.7% of adults, 5.74% of populationBrazil: 30.1% of adults, 11.5% of populationBarbados: 39.4% of adults, 17.1% of populationBrunei Darussalam: 37.1% of adults, 7.24% of populationBhutan: 13.1% of adults, 6.63% of populationBotswana: 19.8% of adults, 4.08% of populationCentral African Republic: 10.9% of adults, 2.2% of populationCanada: 26% of adults, 20.3% of populationSwitzerland: 11.3% of adults, 20.4% of populationChile: 40.5% of adults, 14.6% of populationChina: 9.29% of adults, 14.9% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 12.8% of adults, 2.65% of populationCameroon: 16% of adults, 2.82% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 6.69% of adults, 3.08% of populationCongo, Rep.: 12.2% of adults, 3.06% of populationColombia: 24.9% of adults, 10.2% of populationComoros: 16.8% of adults, 4.45% of populationCabo Verde: 16.7% of adults, 7.15% of populationCosta Rica: 32.7% of adults, 12.8% of populationCyprus: 21.6% of adults, 14.9% of populationCzechia: 26.3% of adults, 21.2% of populationGermany: 20.6% of adults, 23.7% of populationDjibouti: 11.7% of adults, 4.97% of populationDominica: 32.5% of adults, 13.2% of populationDenmark: 14.3% of adults, 21.1% of populationDominican Republic: 30.8% of adults, 8.19% of populationAlgeria: 23.6% of adults, 6.81% of populationEcuador: 28.9% of adults, 8.6% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 43.9% of adults, 5.27% of populationSpain: 15.3% of adults, 21.6% of populationEstonia: 20.3% of adults, 21.8% of populationEthiopia: 2.92% of adults, 3.3% of populationFinland: 24.2% of adults, 24.2% of populationFiji: 39% of adults, 6.63% of populationFrance: 11.2% of adults, 22.5% of populationMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 48.6% of adults, 6.18% of populationGabon: 22.7% of adults, 4.13% of populationUnited Kingdom: 27.4% of adults, 19.7% of populationGeorgia: 35.7% of adults, 16% of populationGhana: 14.5% of adults, 3.79% of populationGuinea: 10.6% of adults, 3.47% of populationGambia, The: 12.4% of adults, 3.18% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 12.7% of adults, 3.24% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 19.2% of adults, 3.76% of populationGreece: 27.4% of adults, 24.4% of populationGrenada: 31.5% of adults, 12.6% of populationGreenland: 28.1% of adults, 11.5% of populationGuatemala: 28% of adults, 4.96% of populationGuyana: 30.1% of adults, 6.98% of populationHonduras: 31.8% of adults, 4.54% of populationCroatia: 30.8% of adults, 23.6% of populationHaiti: 11.1% of adults, 4.79% of populationHungary: 31.4% of adults, 21.2% of populationIndonesia: 11.8% of adults, 7.54% of populationIndia: 8.01% of adults, 7.38% of populationIreland: 27.9% of adults, 16.2% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 24.6% of adults, 8.58% of populationIraq: 39.7% of adults, 3.45% of populationIceland: 22.2% of adults, 16% of populationIsrael: 22.2% of adults, 12.7% of populationItaly: 14% of adults, 25.1% of populationJamaica: 35.2% of adults, 8.58% of populationJordan: 35.4% of adults, 4.75% of populationJapan: 5.9% of adults, 30% of populationKazakhstan: 21.1% of adults, 9% of populationKenya: 11.3% of adults, 3.02% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 22% of adults, 5.97% of populationCambodia: 4.92% of adults, 6.38% of populationKiribati: 45.6% of adults, 4.38% of populationSt. Kitts and Nevis: 46.7% of adults, 11.7% of populationKorea, Rep.: 8.37% of adults, 20.3% of populationKuwait: 40.4% of adults, 3.17% of populationLao PDR: 9.18% of adults, 4.81% of populationLebanon: 30.7% of adults, 10.4% of populationLiberia: 17.8% of adults, 3.33% of populationLibya: 33.7% of adults, 5.19% of populationSt. Lucia: 34.8% of adults, 9.96% of populationSri Lanka: 11.2% of adults, 12.5% of populationLesotho: 22.2% of adults, 3.88% of populationLithuania: 21.3% of adults, 20.7% of populationLuxembourg: 19% of adults, 15.8% of populationLatvia: 22.3% of adults, 22.2% of populationMorocco: 21.6% of adults, 8.45% of populationMoldova: 22.3% of adults, 16.9% of populationMadagascar: 4.51% of adults, 3.47% of populationMaldives: 17.9% of adults, 4.96% of populationMexico: 37.4% of adults, 8.52% of populationMarshall Islands: 42% of adults, 4.88% of populationNorth Macedonia: 26.8% of adults, 18.5% of populationMali: 13.3% of adults, 2.36% of populationMalta: 30.6% of adults, 20.5% of populationMyanmar: 8.13% of adults, 7.52% of populationMontenegro: 17.1% of adults, 18.3% of populationMongolia: 25.1% of adults, 5.43% of populationMozambique: 10.6% of adults, 2.73% of populationMauritania: 24.1% of adults, 3.25% of populationMauritius: 21.1% of adults, 14.1% of populationMalawi: 8% of adults, 2.59% of populationMalaysia: 23.3% of adults, 8.03% of populationNamibia: 18.3% of adults, 3.79% of populationNiger: 6.77% of adults, 2.62% of populationNigeria: 13.7% of adults, 3.07% of populationNicaragua: 34.9% of adults, 5.7% of populationNetherlands: 14.7% of adults, 20.9% of populationNorway: 20.2% of adults, 19.1% of populationNepal: 7.96% of adults, 6.62% of populationNaoero: 71.4% of adults, 3.01% of populationNew Zealand: 34% of adults, 17.6% of populationOman: 30.5% of adults, 2.69% of populationPakistan: 24.5% of adults, 4.36% of populationPanama: 37.7% of adults, 9.66% of populationPeru: 29.2% of adults, 9.47% of populationPhilippines: 9.62% of adults, 5.72% of populationPalau: 40.5% of adults, 11.8% of populationPapua New Guinea: 28% of adults, 3.59% of populationPoland: 21.8% of adults, 20.8% of populationPuerto Rico (US): 42.4% of adults, 25.3% of populationPortugal: 18.1% of adults, 24.9% of populationParaguay: 34.7% of adults, 6.72% of populationWest Bank and Gaza: 37.4% of adults, 3.85% of populationQatar: 42% of adults, 1.7% of populationRomania: 32.4% of adults, 20.1% of populationRussian Federation: 17.6% of adults, 17.8% of populationRwanda: 5.58% of adults, 4.02% of populationSaudi Arabia: 40.1% of adults, 3.06% of populationSudan: 17.8% of adults, 3.39% of populationSenegal: 11.6% of adults, 3.65% of populationSingapore: 17% of adults, 14.2% of populationSolomon Islands: 21.8% of adults, 3.67% of populationSierra Leone: 8.19% of adults, 3.28% of populationEl Salvador: 32.2% of adults, 8.31% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 14.9% of adults, 2.62% of populationSerbia: 21.8% of adults, 23.1% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 17.9% of adults, 3.94% of populationSuriname: 30.8% of adults, 8.19% of populationSlovak Republic: 26.1% of adults, 19% of populationSlovenia: 19.8% of adults, 22.2% of populationSweden: 17.5% of adults, 20.9% of populationEswatini: 29.6% of adults, 4.35% of populationSeychelles: 33.9% of adults, 8.75% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 33% of adults, 4.84% of populationChad: 7.4% of adults, 2.12% of populationTogo: 13.4% of adults, 3.48% of populationThailand: 16.4% of adults, 16% of populationTajikistan: 23.1% of adults, 4.07% of populationTurkmenistan: 22.2% of adults, 4.81% of populationTimor-Leste: 3.61% of adults, 5.23% of populationTonga: 73.8% of adults, 6.85% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 30.9% of adults, 12.9% of populationTunisia: 26.1% of adults, 9.94% of populationTurkiye: 28.8% of adults, 10.6% of populationTuvalu: 65.1% of adults, 7.04% of populationTanzania: 11.5% of adults, 3.04% of populationUganda: 9.47% of adults, 2.23% of populationUkraine: 22.8% of adults, 19% of populationUruguay: 34.9% of adults, 16.3% of populationUnited States: 41% of adults, 18.4% of populationUzbekistan: 31.2% of adults, 6.07% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 34.6% of adults, 12.3% of populationViet Nam: 2.4% of adults, 9.49% of populationVanuatu: 22.6% of adults, 4.38% of populationSamoa: 64.3% of adults, 6.07% of populationSouth Africa: 31.8% of adults, 6.89% of populationZambia: 11.6% of adults, 2% of populationZimbabwe: 14.7% of adults, 3.56% of populationBDIETHFRAITAJPNMDGNRUPRITONTUVWSM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.0520.475188
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.2030.005188
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2400.001188
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.0860.240188

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 188 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.187 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.258 (without PRI) to -0.218 (without JPN). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: JPN (+0.022).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific29-0.26
Europe & Central Asia50-0.16
Latin America & Caribbean32+0.17
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22-0.38
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.18

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third63+0.35
Middle third62-0.20
Richest third63-0.55

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians109-0.20
Muslims49-0.17

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.12
Never a European colony21-0.63
Spain20+0.40
United Kingdom63-0.03

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.261 after dropping 4 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.046, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose adult obesity moved did not tend to see their population 65+ move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.240for comparison
Within countries+0.579each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.046q = 0.665 · 196 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.080q = 0.283
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

6,860 country-years (one country in one year), 196 countries, 1990–2024, about 35 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 9% for Adult obesity, 13% for Population 65+. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Population 65+ trails Adult obesity →lag -10: r = -0.060 (n = 4,900)lag -9: r = -0.063 (n = 5,096)lag -8: r = -0.065 (n = 5,292)lag -7: r = -0.065 (n = 5,488)lag -6: r = -0.065 (n = 5,684)lag -5: r = -0.064 (n = 5,880)lag -4: r = -0.062 (n = 6,076)lag -3: r = -0.059 (n = 6,272)lag -2: r = -0.055 (n = 6,468)lag -1: r = -0.051 (n = 6,664)lag +0: r = -0.046 (n = 6,860)lag +1: r = -0.042 (n = 6,860)lag +2: r = -0.034 (n = 6,664)lag +3: r = -0.025 (n = 6,468)lag +4: r = -0.016 (n = 6,272)lag +5: r = -0.007 (n = 6,076)lag +6: r = 0.002 (n = 5,880)lag +7: r = 0.011 (n = 5,684)lag +8: r = 0.020 (n = 5,488)lag +9: r = 0.029 (n = 5,292)lag +10: r = 0.039 (n = 5,096)

Same year (lag 0): -0.046. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of adults
% of population		Years
Tonga TON73.8%6.85%2024, 2025
Naoero NRU71.4%3.01%2024, 2025
Tuvalu TUV65.1%7.04%2024, 2025
Samoa WSM64.3%6.07%2024, 2025
Micronesia, Fed. Sts. FSM48.6%6.18%2024, 2025
Bahamas, The BHS48.3%12.1%2024, 2025
St. Kitts and Nevis KNA46.7%11.7%2024, 2025
Kiribati KIR45.6%4.38%2024, 2025
Egypt, Arab Rep. EGY43.9%5.27%2024, 2025
Belize BLZ43.4%5.23%2024, 2025
Puerto Rico (US) PRI42.4%25.3%2024, 2025
Qatar QAT42%1.7%2024, 2025
Marshall Islands MHL42%4.88%2024, 2025
United States USA41%18.4%2024, 2025
Palau PLW40.5%11.8%2024, 2025

World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Adult obesity

Prevalence of obesity among adults, age-standardised

World Health Organization · via Our World in Data · CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 · updated annual

Adults with a body mass index (weight compared with height) over 30. Adjusted to one age mix, so an older country and a younger one can be compared fairly. Estimated with a statistical model from surveys. It rises with income across the poorer half of the world, then stops rising across the richer half. Adjusting for GDP assumes a straight-line link, so it cannot capture that bend.

Population 65+

Population ages 65 and above (% of total)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2024–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Adult obesity and Population 65+

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Adult obesity changes Population 65+, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Adult obesity or Population 65+