placestats

Adult literacy vs. Out of school, primary

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 129 countries, Adult literacy and Out of school, primary rise and fall together at r = -0.55 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.37 (q = 0.043, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak negative link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of adult literacy, 76.5% to 97.9% of adults, out of school, primary is better by 6.94% of primary-age children at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 5.9% of primary-age children.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.547p = 2.0e-11 · 129 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.373p = 1.4e-5 · likely range [-0.51, -0.21]
p, allowing for regions0.004standard error 0.073 · 6 regions
Check for luck (q)0.043across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Adult literacy · % of adultslink with income +0.73 · high
Out of school, primary · % of primary-age childrenlink with income -0.45 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Adult literacy · % of adults →Out of school, primary · % of primary-age children →30.6%100%0.00387%41.8%Aruba: 96.8% of adults, 1.76% of primary-age childrenAngola: 68.2% of adults, 36.8% of primary-age childrenAlbania: 97.7% of adults, 0.488% of primary-age childrenUnited Arab Emirates: 98.8% of adults, 0.00387% of primary-age childrenArgentina: 99.1% of adults, 0.735% of primary-age childrenArmenia: 99.8% of adults, 1.08% of primary-age childrenAzerbaijan: 99.8% of adults, 0.0266% of primary-age childrenBurundi: 71.3% of adults, 26.5% of primary-age childrenBenin: 51.4% of adults, 9.61% of primary-age childrenBurkina Faso: 41.6% of adults, 34.3% of primary-age childrenBangladesh: 79% of adults, 5.86% of primary-age childrenBulgaria: 98.3% of adults, 5.9% of primary-age childrenBahrain: 97.8% of adults, 4.75% of primary-age childrenBosnia and Herzegovina: 97% of adults, 2.1% of primary-age childrenBelarus: 99.9% of adults, 4.49% of primary-age childrenBelize: 87.9% of adults, 10.7% of primary-age childrenBolivia: 96.7% of adults, 9.25% of primary-age childrenBrazil: 94.7% of adults, 2.19% of primary-age childrenBrunei Darussalam: 96.1% of adults, 3.61% of primary-age childrenBhutan: 64.9% of adults, 10.5% of primary-age childrenCentral African Republic: 42.4% of adults, 37.9% of primary-age childrenChile: 96.4% of adults, 2.12% of primary-age childrenCote d'Ivoire: 50% of adults, 12.6% of primary-age childrenCameroon: 72.6% of adults, 3.76% of primary-age childrenColombia: 95.3% of adults, 7.32% of primary-age childrenComoros: 75.6% of adults, 20.6% of primary-age childrenCabo Verde: 88.5% of adults, 41.8% of primary-age childrenCosta Rica: 97.4% of adults, 4.49% of primary-age childrenCayman Islands: 98.9% of adults, 5.17% of primary-age childrenCyprus: 98.7% of adults, 0.425% of primary-age childrenDominican Republic: 94% of adults, 4.93% of primary-age childrenEcuador: 93.5% of adults, 4.72% of primary-age childrenEgypt, Arab Rep.: 79.5% of adults, 3.51% of primary-age childrenSpain: 99.7% of adults, 1.24% of primary-age childrenEstonia: 99.9% of adults, 3.39% of primary-age childrenEthiopia: 60.5% of adults, 22.5% of primary-age childrenGabon: 88.9% of adults, 28.8% of primary-age childrenGeorgia: 99.7% of adults, 6.17% of primary-age childrenGhana: 76.5% of adults, 4.77% of primary-age childrenGuinea: 39.6% of adults, 14.7% of primary-age childrenGambia, The: 51.6% of adults, 16.9% of primary-age childrenGuinea-Bissau: 63.9% of adults, 30.5% of primary-age childrenGuatemala: 82.1% of adults, 8.43% of primary-age childrenGuyana: 85.6% of adults, 18% of primary-age childrenHonduras: 88.3% of adults, 26.6% of primary-age childrenIndonesia: 96% of adults, 0.877% of primary-age childrenIndia: 78.2% of adults, 0.119% of primary-age childrenIran, Islamic Rep.: 88.9% of adults, 0.103% of primary-age childrenItaly: 99.3% of adults, 2.06% of primary-age childrenJordan: 94.4% of adults, 1.89% of primary-age childrenCambodia: 71.9% of adults, 3.69% of primary-age childrenKiribati: 98.6% of adults, 8.71% of primary-age childrenKuwait: 96.5% of adults, 7.47% of primary-age childrenLao PDR: 75.6% of adults, 10.4% of primary-age childrenLebanon: 92% of adults, 22.5% of primary-age childrenLiberia: 59.4% of adults, 38.3% of primary-age childrenSri Lanka: 92.7% of adults, 9.14% of primary-age childrenLesotho: 90.4% of adults, 32.2% of primary-age childrenLithuania: 99.8% of adults, 0.13% of primary-age childrenLatvia: 99.9% of adults, 2.74% of primary-age childrenMacao SAR, China: 96.5% of adults, 10.8% of primary-age childrenMorocco: 64.3% of adults, 0.471% of primary-age childrenMoldova: 99.4% of adults, 0.463% of primary-age childrenMadagascar: 74.7% of adults, 3.4% of primary-age childrenMaldives: 98.2% of adults, 0.946% of primary-age childrenMexico: 95.6% of adults, 0.363% of primary-age childrenMarshall Islands: 95.8% of adults, 1.48% of primary-age childrenMali: 35.6% of adults, 34% of primary-age childrenMalta: 93.3% of adults, 2.64% of primary-age childrenMyanmar: 93.5% of adults, 1.41% of primary-age childrenMontenegro: 98.5% of adults, 0.218% of primary-age childrenMongolia: 98.6% of adults, 8.56% of primary-age childrenMozambique: 61.7% of adults, 1% of primary-age childrenMauritania: 59.5% of adults, 11.3% of primary-age childrenMauritius: 94.3% of adults, 0.785% of primary-age childrenMalawi: 70.2% of adults, 2.09% of primary-age childrenMalaysia: 95.8% of adults, 12% of primary-age childrenNamibia: 87.6% of adults, 0.865% of primary-age childrenNiger: 35.6% of adults, 40.4% of primary-age childrenNigeria: 70.4% of adults, 24.3% of primary-age childrenNicaragua: 87.3% of adults, 6.66% of primary-age childrenNepal: 68.7% of adults, 0.762% of primary-age childrenNaoero: 96.6% of adults, 6.6% of primary-age childrenOman: 97.3% of adults, 5.76% of primary-age childrenPakistan: 58.9% of adults, 17.9% of primary-age childrenPanama: 96.2% of adults, 7.7% of primary-age childrenPeru: 93.7% of adults, 0.156% of primary-age childrenPhilippines: 98.5% of adults, 11.6% of primary-age childrenPalau: 99.8% of adults, 1.33% of primary-age childrenPapua New Guinea: 87% of adults, 4% of primary-age childrenPuerto Rico (US): 92.4% of adults, 13.3% of primary-age childrenPortugal: 94.5% of adults, 0.508% of primary-age childrenParaguay: 94.9% of adults, 13.3% of primary-age childrenWest Bank and Gaza: 97.9% of adults, 9.56% of primary-age childrenQatar: 97.8% of adults, 4.62% of primary-age childrenRomania: 99.2% of adults, 15.6% of primary-age childrenRussian Federation: 99.9% of adults, 4.94% of primary-age childrenRwanda: 78.8% of adults, 0.97% of primary-age childrenSaudi Arabia: 97.9% of adults, 0.527% of primary-age childrenSenegal: 50.4% of adults, 24.5% of primary-age childrenSingapore: 97.7% of adults, 0.212% of primary-age childrenSierra Leone: 43.6% of adults, 0.888% of primary-age childrenEl Salvador: 89.8% of adults, 8.66% of primary-age childrenSan Marino: 99.9% of adults, 6.13% of primary-age childrenSerbia: 99.3% of adults, 3.33% of primary-age childrenSao Tome and Principe: 87.4% of adults, 2.88% of primary-age childrenSuriname: 92.9% of adults, 16.2% of primary-age childrenEswatini: 90.8% of adults, 3.83% of primary-age childrenSeychelles: 93.9% of adults, 6.8% of primary-age childrenSyrian Arab Republic: 94.4% of adults, 21.8% of primary-age childrenChad: 30.6% of adults, 24.8% of primary-age childrenTogo: 72.6% of adults, 0.639% of primary-age childrenThailand: 91.1% of adults, 0.817% of primary-age childrenTurkmenistan: 99.9% of adults, 4.31% of primary-age childrenTimor-Leste: 69.4% of adults, 6.88% of primary-age childrenTonga: 99.5% of adults, 2.28% of primary-age childrenTunisia: 86.3% of adults, 1.09% of primary-age childrenTurkiye: 97.3% of adults, 0.603% of primary-age childrenTuvalu: 100% of adults, 0.537% of primary-age childrenTanzania: 78.2% of adults, 16.4% of primary-age childrenUganda: 77% of adults, 4.12% of primary-age childrenUruguay: 98.9% of adults, 0.0355% of primary-age childrenUzbekistan: 100% of adults, 0.655% of primary-age childrenViet Nam: 96.1% of adults, 1.73% of primary-age childrenVanuatu: 88% of adults, 2.53% of primary-age childrenSamoa: 98% of adults, 1.81% of primary-age childrenSouth Africa: 91.2% of adults, 6.06% of primary-age childrenZambia: 71.8% of adults, 3.51% of primary-age childrenZimbabwe: 93.2% of adults, 10.5% of primary-age childrenAZECAFCPVGABGINLSOLTUMLIMOZNERSLETUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5472.0e-11129
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.4481.0e-7129
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.3731.4e-5129
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2920.001129

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 129 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.174 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.410 (without LSO) to -0.341 (without NER). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: LSO (-0.037).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific22-0.19
Europe & Central Asia23+0.23
Latin America & Caribbean23-0.53
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan16+0.17
Sub-Saharan Africa39-0.31

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third43-0.38
Middle third43-0.26
Richest third43-0.43

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians70-0.29
Muslims39-0.31

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.34
Never a European colony14-0.19
Spain18+0.41
United Kingdom40-0.21

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.336 after dropping 15 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.262, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose adult literacy moved did not tend to see their out of school, primary move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.373for comparison
Within countries-0.474each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.262q = 0.056 · 57 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.004q = 0.981
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.
  • The association is much weaker in year-on-year changes than in levels, which points to shared country-specific trends.

520 country-years (one country in one year), 57 countries, 1990–2024, about 9 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 5% for Adult literacy, 22% for Out of school, primary. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.40−0.4-100+10years Out of school, primary trails Adult literacy →lag -10: r = -0.299 (n = 357)lag -9: r = -0.218 (n = 391)lag -8: r = -0.310 (n = 416)lag -7: r = -0.397 (n = 433)lag -6: r = -0.342 (n = 444)lag -5: r = -0.340 (n = 451)lag -4: r = -0.395 (n = 461)lag -3: r = -0.306 (n = 453)lag -2: r = -0.304 (n = 476)lag -1: r = -0.253 (n = 525)lag +0: r = -0.262 (n = 520)lag +1: r = -0.227 (n = 522)lag +2: r = -0.249 (n = 504)lag +3: r = -0.153 (n = 466)lag +4: r = -0.163 (n = 416)lag +5: r = -0.208 (n = 396)lag +6: r = -0.180 (n = 372)lag +7: r = -0.204 (n = 335)lag +8: r = -0.237 (n = 298)lag +9: r = -0.180 (n = 267)lag +10: r = -0.300 (n = 216)

Same year (lag 0): -0.262. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.40 at lag -7) is higher than the same-year one by 0.13. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


% of adults
% of primary-age children		Years
Uzbekistan UZB100%0.655%2022, 2025
Tuvalu TUV100%0.537%2022, 2024
Russian Federation RUS99.9%4.94%2021, 2023
San Marino SMR99.9%6.13%2022, 2024
Turkmenistan TKM99.9%4.31%2022, 2024
Latvia LVA99.9%2.74%2011, 2024
Estonia EST99.9%3.39%2011, 2024
Belarus BLR99.9%4.49%2019, 2024
Palau PLW99.8%1.33%2020, 2024
Armenia ARM99.8%1.08%2023, 2024
Lithuania LTU99.8%0.13%2011, 2024
Azerbaijan AZE99.8%0.0266%2023, 2024
Spain ESP99.7%1.24%2021, 2024
Georgia GEO99.7%6.17%2024
Tonga TON99.5%2.28%2023, 2022

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Adult literacy

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Reported only in census or survey years for most countries, so the data are sparse and uneven rather than yearly.

Out of school, primary

Children out of school (% of primary school age)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Children of primary-school age not enrolled at any level. Treated as measuring the same thing as gross primary enrolment, which is on the site. They are two ways of asking whether children are in school, so their agreement is not a finding.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 6 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Adult literacy and Out of school, primary

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Adult literacy changes Out of school, primary, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Adult literacy or Out of school, primary