placestats

Adolescent fertility vs. Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 142 countries, Adolescent fertility and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion rise and fall together at r = -0.31 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.34, q = 0.033, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, 31.4% to 58.5% of unintended pregnancies, adolescent fertility is better by 19.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 13.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.307p = 0.000 · 142 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.340p = 3.6e-5 · likely range [-0.48, -0.19]
p, allowing for regions0.070standard error 0.155 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.033across 14,952 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Adolescent fertility · births per 1,000 women aged 15-19link with income -0.81 · proxy
Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancieslink with income +0.12 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Adolescent fertility · births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 →Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancies →0.53216119.7%86.1%Angola: 139 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 28.1% of unintended pregnanciesAlbania: 12.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 59.2% of unintended pregnanciesArgentina: 25.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesArmenia: 12.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 81.8% of unintended pregnanciesAustralia: 6.42 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesAzerbaijan: 34.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 77.6% of unintended pregnanciesBurundi: 52.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesBelgium: 3.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 37.1% of unintended pregnanciesBenin: 76.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 36.9% of unintended pregnanciesBurkina Faso: 85.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 40.6% of unintended pregnanciesBangladesh: 70.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 60.1% of unintended pregnanciesBulgaria: 38 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 35.7% of unintended pregnanciesBosnia and Herzegovina: 10.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 57.3% of unintended pregnanciesBelarus: 8.17 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 56% of unintended pregnanciesBelize: 55.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 45.2% of unintended pregnanciesBolivia: 64.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 36.3% of unintended pregnanciesBrazil: 41.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesBarbados: 45 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 58% of unintended pregnanciesBhutan: 8.71 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 67.9% of unintended pregnanciesBotswana: 53.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesCentral African Republic: 161 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 30% of unintended pregnanciesCanada: 4.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesSwitzerland: 1.48 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 25.5% of unintended pregnanciesChile: 5.61 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 52.5% of unintended pregnanciesChina: 5.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 77.9% of unintended pregnanciesCote d'Ivoire: 90.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 36.7% of unintended pregnanciesCameroon: 105 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 40.7% of unintended pregnanciesCongo, Dem. Rep.: 105 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 27.9% of unintended pregnanciesCongo, Rep.: 108 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 42.6% of unintended pregnanciesColombia: 58.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 43.2% of unintended pregnanciesComoros: 53.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 32.4% of unintended pregnanciesCabo Verde: 37.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 48.6% of unintended pregnanciesCosta Rica: 24.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 41% of unintended pregnanciesCzechia: 5.75 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 19.7% of unintended pregnanciesGermany: 5.24 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 27.1% of unintended pregnanciesDjibouti: 19.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 41.4% of unintended pregnanciesDenmark: 1.06 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 38.9% of unintended pregnanciesDominican Republic: 50.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 44% of unintended pregnanciesEcuador: 54.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 35.1% of unintended pregnanciesSpain: 4.85 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesEstonia: 4.67 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 41.7% of unintended pregnanciesEthiopia: 68.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 31% of unintended pregnanciesFinland: 2.99 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesFrance: 3.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 49.5% of unintended pregnanciesGabon: 89.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesUnited Kingdom: 7.82 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 36.2% of unintended pregnanciesGeorgia: 19.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 86.1% of unintended pregnanciesGhana: 57.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 35.9% of unintended pregnanciesGuinea: 117 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 38.1% of unintended pregnanciesGambia, The: 56.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 31.1% of unintended pregnanciesGuinea-Bissau: 80.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 58.5% of unintended pregnanciesGreece: 6.85 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 45.8% of unintended pregnanciesGuatemala: 67.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesGuyana: 68.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 47.5% of unintended pregnanciesHong Kong SAR, China: 1.15 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 46.1% of unintended pregnanciesHonduras: 81.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 30.6% of unintended pregnanciesCroatia: 6.31 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 49.9% of unintended pregnanciesHaiti: 49.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 35.5% of unintended pregnanciesHungary: 17.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 49.4% of unintended pregnanciesIndonesia: 25.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 63% of unintended pregnanciesIndia: 13 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 77.1% of unintended pregnanciesIceland: 3.07 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 39.1% of unintended pregnanciesItaly: 2.87 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 67.1% of unintended pregnanciesJamaica: 36.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 43.9% of unintended pregnanciesJapan: 1.63 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesKazakhstan: 17.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 82.1% of unintended pregnanciesKenya: 54.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 38% of unintended pregnanciesKyrgyz Republic: 27.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 79.2% of unintended pregnanciesCambodia: 47.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 65.3% of unintended pregnanciesKorea, Rep.: 0.532 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 61.9% of unintended pregnanciesLao PDR: 81.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 68.3% of unintended pregnanciesLiberia: 125 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 40.4% of unintended pregnanciesSt. Lucia: 27.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 54.6% of unintended pregnanciesSri Lanka: 14.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 72.3% of unintended pregnanciesLesotho: 69.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 23.9% of unintended pregnanciesLithuania: 5.52 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 27.7% of unintended pregnanciesLatvia: 7.25 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 30.2% of unintended pregnanciesMoldova: 22.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 70.6% of unintended pregnanciesMadagascar: 129 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 62.8% of unintended pregnanciesMaldives: 5.03 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 70.5% of unintended pregnanciesMexico: 59.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 50.9% of unintended pregnanciesNorth Macedonia: 12.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 63.4% of unintended pregnanciesMali: 136 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 33.5% of unintended pregnanciesMyanmar: 33.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 74.2% of unintended pregnanciesMontenegro: 8.71 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 54.2% of unintended pregnanciesMongolia: 19 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 65.7% of unintended pregnanciesMozambique: 152 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 46.7% of unintended pregnanciesMauritania: 87.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 25.4% of unintended pregnanciesMalawi: 113 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 27.4% of unintended pregnanciesNamibia: 65.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 27.9% of unintended pregnanciesNiger: 142 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 31.3% of unintended pregnanciesNigeria: 84 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 48.2% of unintended pregnanciesNicaragua: 93.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 27.5% of unintended pregnanciesNetherlands: 1.75 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 40.8% of unintended pregnanciesNorway: 1.28 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 31.7% of unintended pregnanciesNepal: 66.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 69.4% of unintended pregnanciesNew Zealand: 10.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 29.3% of unintended pregnanciesPakistan: 39.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 60.9% of unintended pregnanciesPanama: 55.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 41.3% of unintended pregnanciesPeru: 42.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 47.5% of unintended pregnanciesPhilippines: 31.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 50.5% of unintended pregnanciesPapua New Guinea: 53.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 46.3% of unintended pregnanciesPoland: 5.85 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesPuerto Rico (US): 13.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 58.3% of unintended pregnanciesPortugal: 6.57 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 32.4% of unintended pregnanciesParaguay: 70.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 51% of unintended pregnanciesRomania: 32.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 71.2% of unintended pregnanciesRussian Federation: 12.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 71.8% of unintended pregnanciesRwanda: 30.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 28.7% of unintended pregnanciesSenegal: 59.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 25.1% of unintended pregnanciesSingapore: 2.21 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 27.5% of unintended pregnanciesSolomon Islands: 49.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 28% of unintended pregnanciesSierra Leone: 91.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 51.5% of unintended pregnanciesEl Salvador: 53.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 41.5% of unintended pregnanciesSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 115 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 29.2% of unintended pregnanciesSerbia: 13.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 60.8% of unintended pregnanciesSao Tome and Principe: 85.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 29.6% of unintended pregnanciesSuriname: 46.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 46.5% of unintended pregnanciesSlovak Republic: 24.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesSlovenia: 3.38 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 24.4% of unintended pregnanciesSweden: 1.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 48.3% of unintended pregnanciesEswatini: 68.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 26.5% of unintended pregnanciesChad: 132 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 29.5% of unintended pregnanciesTogo: 76.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesThailand: 25 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 64.4% of unintended pregnanciesTajikistan: 39.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 71% of unintended pregnanciesTurkmenistan: 20.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 83.4% of unintended pregnanciesTimor-Leste: 26.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 67.8% of unintended pregnanciesTonga: 25.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 52% of unintended pregnanciesTrinidad and Tobago: 36 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 58% of unintended pregnanciesTanzania: 113 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 35.9% of unintended pregnanciesUganda: 105 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 29.7% of unintended pregnanciesUkraine: 10.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 75.9% of unintended pregnanciesUruguay: 25.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 27.6% of unintended pregnanciesUnited States: 12.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 34.2% of unintended pregnanciesUzbekistan: 34.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 80.2% of unintended pregnanciesViet Nam: 33.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 74.5% of unintended pregnanciesVanuatu: 65.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 45.4% of unintended pregnanciesSamoa: 43.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 64.5% of unintended pregnanciesSouth Africa: 51.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesZambia: 115 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 28.2% of unintended pregnanciesZimbabwe: 95.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesAGOARMCAFCHNCZEFINGEOLAOMDGMOZNERSVN

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3070.000142
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.2280.006142
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.3403.6e-5142
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2340.005142

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 142 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.033 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.368 (without BDI) to -0.325 (without IND). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BDI (-0.028).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions
  • much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference)

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific21-0.02
Europe & Central Asia43+0.11
Latin America & Caribbean26-0.37
Sub-Saharan Africa42+0.11

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third48-0.24
Middle third47-0.66
Richest third47+0.09

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96-0.22
Muslims27-0.29

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.09
Never a European colony16-0.29
Spain17-0.31
United Kingdom38-0.50

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.336 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


births per 1,000 women aged 15-19
% of unintended pregnancies		Years
Central African Republic CAF16130%2024, 2019
Mozambique MOZ15246.7%2024, 2019
Niger NER14231.3%2024, 2019
Angola AGO13928.1%2024, 2019
Mali MLI13633.5%2024, 2019
Chad TCD13229.5%2024, 2019
Madagascar MDG12962.8%2024, 2019
Liberia LBR12540.4%2024, 2019
Guinea GIN11738.1%2024, 2019
Zambia ZMB11528.2%2024, 2019
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM11529.2%2024, 2019
Malawi MWI11327.4%2024, 2019
Tanzania TZA11335.9%2024, 2019
Congo, Rep. COG10842.6%2024, 2019
Cameroon CMR10540.7%2024, 2019

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Bearak, J. M., Popinchalk, A., Beavin, C. et al. (2022), 'Country-specific estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence: a global comparative analysis of levels in 2015-2019', BMJ Global Health 7(3), e007151. Guttmacher Institute. Supplementary appendix, tables A3-A5.

Sources

Adolescent fertility

Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19)

UN Population Division, World Population Prospects · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Share of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion (model estimate, 2015-2019)

Guttmacher Institute (Bearak et al. 2022, BMJ Global Health) · CC BY-NC 4.0 · updated one edition (2015-2019 estimates, published 2022)

Of the unintended pregnancies in the abortion rate's model, the share that ended in abortion, averaged over 2015-2019 (Guttmacher Institute). The rest ended in a birth or a miscarriage. Like the other two, it is an estimate with a range. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2019–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Adolescent fertility and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Adolescent fertility changes Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Adolescent fertility or Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion