Voice and accountability vs. Women's age at first marriage (census-based)
Fades after adjusting for income
Across 174 countries, Voice and accountability and Women's age at first marriage (census-based) rise and fall together at r = +0.65 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.39, which could easily be chance (q = 0.21, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.
Comparing countries across the middle half of women's age at first marriage (census-based), 21.9 to 27.9 years, voice and accountability is better by 0.982 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.682 points.
Link before adjusting (r)+0.647p = 5.7e-22 · 174 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.390p = 1.1e-7 · likely range [+0.26, +0.51]
p, allowing for regions0.020standard error 0.124 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.210across 14,952 pairs
How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.
Voice and accountability · index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5)link with income +0.58 · moderate
Women's age at first marriage (census-based) · yearslink with income +0.75 · high
“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.
Every country as a dot
best-fit line line after adjusting
Four ways to measure the link
| Method | r | p | Countries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (Pearson), not adjusted | +0.647 | 5.7e-22 | 174 |
| By rank (Spearman), not adjusted | +0.622 | 5.2e-20 | 174 |
| Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income | +0.390 | 1.1e-7 | 174 |
| By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income | +0.315 | 2.5e-5 | 174 |
The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 174 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.256 (a minus sign means it grew).
How solid is it?
Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.379 (without BLR) to +0.424 (without BRB). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BRB (+0.034).
Within each region
Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| East Asia & Pacific | 26 | +0.63 | |
| Europe & Central Asia | 49 | +0.52 | |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 31 | +0.14 | |
| Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan | 17 | +0.28 | |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 42 | +0.35 |
By income third
If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Poorest third | 58 | +0.25 | |
| Middle third | 58 | +0.11 | |
| Richest third | 58 | +0.59 |
By largest religious group
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Christians | 105 | +0.40 | |
| Muslims | 42 | +0.05 |
By last european coloniser
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 22 | +0.09 | |
| Never a European colony | 20 | +0.39 | |
| Spain | 20 | +0.63 | |
| United Kingdom | 50 | +0.16 |
Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.390 after dropping 0 countries.
Two series, one country
Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.
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Over time, within countries
Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 24years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.
Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.133, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose voice and accountability moved did not tend to see their women's age at first marriage (census-based) move with it.
Across countries (adjusted)+0.390for comparison
Within countries-0.025each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.133q = 0.329 · 87 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.063q = 0.553
Read with care.
- Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
735 country-years (one country in one year), 87 countries, 1996–2019, about 8 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 9% for Voice and accountability, 3% for Women's age at first marriage (census-based). The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.
Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.
With one measure years behind the other
Same year (lag 0): -0.133. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.
The largest value on this curve (-0.21 at lag -1) is higher than the same-year one by 0.07. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.
The data
index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5) | years | Years | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway NOR | 1.93 | 32.1 | 2024, 2018 |
| Denmark DNK | 1.89 | 31.9 | 2024, 2018 |
| Finland FIN | 1.85 | 30.7 | 2024, 2018 |
| Sweden SWE | 1.73 | 31 | 2024, 2018 |
| Luxembourg LUX | 1.67 | 30.7 | 2024, 2018 |
| Netherlands NLD | 1.65 | 32.4 | 2024, 2018 |
| Switzerland CHE | 1.64 | 30.9 | 2024, 2017 |
| Ireland IRL | 1.64 | 32.4 | 2024, 2016 |
| Germany DEU | 1.6 | 31.7 | 2024, 2018 |
| Australia AUS | 1.51 | 29.9 | 2024, 2016 |
| Canada CAN | 1.5 | 27.2 | 2024, 2016 |
| Belgium BEL | 1.5 | 26.3 | 2024, 2011 |
| Iceland ISL | 1.42 | 32.4 | 2024, 2018 |
| Estonia EST | 1.41 | 33.6 | 2024, 2018 |
| Austria AUT | 1.41 | 27.1 | 2024, 2011 |
Kaufmann, D. and A. Kraay, Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank
World Bank Gender Statistics, from UN Population Division, World Marriage Data
Sources
Women's age at first marriage (census-based)
Age at first marriage, female
World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual
The average age at which women first marry. It is worked out from census and survey counts of how many women in each age group have never married, by the UN Population Division (World Marriage Data), so it covers far more countries than registered marriages do. Most countries have a figure only every few years, and the series ends in 2019. No "better" direction is set.
How this was computed
Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Voice and accountability and Women's age at first marriage (census-based)
This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Voice and accountability changes Women's age at first marriage (census-based), or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.
More links with Voice and accountability or Women's age at first marriage (census-based)
- Married by 18 vs Women's age at first marriage (census-based) before -0.74 → after adjusting -0.61
- Political stability vs Voice and accountability before +0.72 → after adjusting +0.57
- Muslim share vs Voice and accountability before -0.54 → after adjusting -0.52
- Out-of-pocket health spending vs Voice and accountability before -0.55 → after adjusting -0.45
- Researchers vs Voice and accountability before +0.67 → after adjusting +0.45
- Rule of law vs Women's age at first marriage (census-based) before +0.73 → after adjusting +0.44
- Population 65+ vs Voice and accountability before +0.66 → after adjusting +0.43
- Gender score vs Voice and accountability before +0.52 → after adjusting +0.43