Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion vs. Women's political empowerment
Holds up after adjusting for income
Across 137 countries, Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion and Women's political empowerment rise and fall together at r = -0.17 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.29, q = 0.031, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.
Comparing countries across the middle half of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, 31.1% to 58.5% of unintended pregnancies, women's political empowerment is worse by 0.0399 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.0587 points.
Link before adjusting (r)-0.165p = 0.054 · 137 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.294p = 0.001 · likely range [-0.44, -0.13]
p, allowing for regions0.002standard error 0.057 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.031across 14,952 pairs
How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.
Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancieslink with income +0.12 · independent
Women's political empowerment · index (0-1)link with income +0.54 · moderate
“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.
Every country as a dot
best-fit line line after adjusting
Four ways to measure the link
| Method | r | p | Countries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (Pearson), not adjusted | -0.165 | 0.054 | 137 |
| By rank (Spearman), not adjusted | -0.133 | 0.122 | 137 |
| Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income | -0.294 | 0.001 | 137 |
| By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income | -0.279 | 0.001 | 137 |
The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 137 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.129 (a minus sign means it grew).
How solid is it?
Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.329 (without SWZ) to -0.260 (without TKM). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SWZ (-0.035).
Fragile: this link may not hold up.
- direction is not consistent across regions
Within each region
Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| East Asia & Pacific | 19 | -0.36 | |
| Europe & Central Asia | 43 | -0.32 | |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 23 | +0.15 | |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 42 | +0.06 |
By income third
If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Poorest third | 46 | -0.30 | |
| Middle third | 45 | -0.18 | |
| Richest third | 46 | -0.46 |
By largest religious group
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Christians | 91 | +0.02 | |
| Muslims | 27 | -0.37 |
By last european coloniser
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 21 | -0.12 | |
| Never a European colony | 16 | -0.39 | |
| Spain | 17 | +0.07 | |
| United Kingdom | 34 | -0.36 |
Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.285 after dropping 2 countries.
Two series, one country
Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.
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Over time, within countries
Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.
Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.
The data
% of unintended pregnancies | index (0-1) | Years | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia GEO | 86.1% | 0.816 | 2019, 2025 |
| Turkmenistan TKM | 83.4% | 0.437 | 2019, 2025 |
| Kazakhstan KAZ | 82.1% | 0.682 | 2019, 2025 |
| Armenia ARM | 81.8% | 0.875 | 2019, 2025 |
| Uzbekistan UZB | 80.2% | 0.643 | 2019, 2025 |
| Kyrgyz Republic KGZ | 79.2% | 0.733 | 2019, 2025 |
| China CHN | 77.9% | 0.587 | 2019, 2025 |
| Azerbaijan AZE | 77.6% | 0.649 | 2019, 2025 |
| India IND | 77.1% | 0.658 | 2019, 2025 |
| Ukraine UKR | 75.9% | 0.888 | 2019, 2025 |
| Viet Nam VNM | 74.5% | 0.808 | 2019, 2025 |
| Myanmar MMR | 74.2% | 0.33 | 2019, 2025 |
| Sri Lanka LKA | 72.3% | 0.742 | 2019, 2025 |
| Russian Federation RUS | 71.8% | 0.546 | 2019, 2025 |
| Romania ROU | 71.2% | 0.872 | 2019, 2025 |
Bearak, J. M., Popinchalk, A., Beavin, C. et al. (2022), 'Country-specific estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence: a global comparative analysis of levels in 2015-2019', BMJ Global Health 7(3), e007151. Guttmacher Institute. Supplementary appendix, tables A3-A5.
Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
Sources
Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion
Share of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion (model estimate, 2015-2019)
Guttmacher Institute (Bearak et al. 2022, BMJ Global Health) · CC BY-NC 4.0 · updated one edition (2015-2019 estimates, published 2022)
Of the unintended pregnancies in the abortion rate's model, the share that ended in abortion, averaged over 2015-2019 (Guttmacher Institute). The rest ended in a birth or a miscarriage. Like the other two, it is an estimate with a range. No "better" direction is set.
Women's political empowerment
Women's political empowerment index
V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual
Women's civil liberties, their part in civic groups, and their political representation. It is built from its own set of questions, not from the parts of the democracy indices, so it is not tagged as measuring the same thing. Still, read its links with them carefully. Whether women take part in politics is partly built into whether real political participation exists at all. So a strong link with general democracy measures is closer to definitional (true by how the terms are defined) than to a finding about the world.
How this was computed
Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2019–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion and Women's political empowerment
This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion changes Women's political empowerment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.
More links with Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion or Women's political empowerment
- Governance score vs Women's political empowerment before +0.82 → after adjusting +0.77
- Voice and accountability vs Women's political empowerment before +0.81 → after adjusting +0.76
- Electoral democracy vs Women's political empowerment before +0.81 → after adjusting +0.76
- Freedom of association vs Women's political empowerment before +0.77 → after adjusting +0.75
- Civil liberties (FH) vs Women's political empowerment before -0.80 → after adjusting -0.74
- Political civil liberties vs Women's political empowerment before +0.76 → after adjusting +0.74
- Participatory democracy vs Women's political empowerment before +0.79 → after adjusting +0.74
- Civil society participation vs Women's political empowerment before +0.73 → after adjusting +0.73