placestats

Suicide rate vs. Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 141 countries, Suicide rate and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion rise and fall together at r = -0.13 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.19, q = 0.014, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, 31.3% to 58.5% of unintended pregnancies, suicide rate is better by 1.28 per 100,000 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.74 per 100,000.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.131p = 0.121 · 141 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.188p = 0.026 · likely range [-0.34, -0.02]
p, allowing for regions0.024standard error 0.063 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.014across 14,952 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Suicide rate · per 100,000link with income +0.23 · independent
Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancieslink with income +0.12 · independent

Neither of these is closely tied to national income, so adjusting for income is a real test here, not a formality.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Suicide rate · per 100,000 →Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancies →0.8628.719.7%86.1%Angola: 8.11 per 100,000, 28.1% of unintended pregnanciesAlbania: 2.75 per 100,000, 59.2% of unintended pregnanciesArgentina: 7.94 per 100,000, 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesArmenia: 2.46 per 100,000, 81.8% of unintended pregnanciesAustralia: 13.1 per 100,000, 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesAzerbaijan: 1.56 per 100,000, 77.6% of unintended pregnanciesBurundi: 7.65 per 100,000, 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesBelgium: 18.4 per 100,000, 37.1% of unintended pregnanciesBenin: 7.12 per 100,000, 36.9% of unintended pregnanciesBurkina Faso: 8.5 per 100,000, 40.6% of unintended pregnanciesBangladesh: 2.81 per 100,000, 60.1% of unintended pregnanciesBulgaria: 9.51 per 100,000, 35.7% of unintended pregnanciesBosnia and Herzegovina: 8.97 per 100,000, 57.3% of unintended pregnanciesBelarus: 15.6 per 100,000, 56% of unintended pregnanciesBelize: 4.18 per 100,000, 45.2% of unintended pregnanciesBolivia: 4.2 per 100,000, 36.3% of unintended pregnanciesBrazil: 7.59 per 100,000, 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesBarbados: 3.5 per 100,000, 58% of unintended pregnanciesBhutan: 4.9 per 100,000, 67.9% of unintended pregnanciesBotswana: 8.35 per 100,000, 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesCentral African Republic: 9.19 per 100,000, 30% of unintended pregnanciesCanada: 9.44 per 100,000, 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesSwitzerland: 14 per 100,000, 25.5% of unintended pregnanciesChile: 7.69 per 100,000, 52.5% of unintended pregnanciesChina: 8.95 per 100,000, 77.9% of unintended pregnanciesCote d'Ivoire: 7.39 per 100,000, 36.7% of unintended pregnanciesCameroon: 8.5 per 100,000, 40.7% of unintended pregnanciesCongo, Dem. Rep.: 8.77 per 100,000, 27.9% of unintended pregnanciesCongo, Rep.: 6.71 per 100,000, 42.6% of unintended pregnanciesColombia: 4.96 per 100,000, 43.2% of unintended pregnanciesComoros: 6 per 100,000, 32.4% of unintended pregnanciesCabo Verde: 14.9 per 100,000, 48.6% of unintended pregnanciesCosta Rica: 8.06 per 100,000, 41% of unintended pregnanciesCzechia: 13.3 per 100,000, 19.7% of unintended pregnanciesGermany: 12.9 per 100,000, 27.1% of unintended pregnanciesDjibouti: 7.96 per 100,000, 41.4% of unintended pregnanciesDenmark: 10.5 per 100,000, 38.9% of unintended pregnanciesDominican Republic: 4.2 per 100,000, 44% of unintended pregnanciesEcuador: 7.56 per 100,000, 35.1% of unintended pregnanciesSpain: 8.72 per 100,000, 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesEstonia: 14.9 per 100,000, 41.7% of unintended pregnanciesEthiopia: 6.07 per 100,000, 31% of unintended pregnanciesFinland: 14.6 per 100,000, 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesFrance: 16.6 per 100,000, 49.5% of unintended pregnanciesGabon: 7.3 per 100,000, 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesUnited Kingdom: 9.55 per 100,000, 36.2% of unintended pregnanciesGeorgia: 5.1 per 100,000, 86.1% of unintended pregnanciesGhana: 5.32 per 100,000, 35.9% of unintended pregnanciesGuinea: 4.82 per 100,000, 38.1% of unintended pregnanciesGambia, The: 4.81 per 100,000, 31.1% of unintended pregnanciesGuinea-Bissau: 7.67 per 100,000, 58.5% of unintended pregnanciesGreece: 4.68 per 100,000, 45.8% of unintended pregnanciesGuatemala: 4.94 per 100,000, 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesGuyana: 24.8 per 100,000, 47.5% of unintended pregnanciesHonduras: 2.97 per 100,000, 30.6% of unintended pregnanciesCroatia: 15.7 per 100,000, 49.9% of unintended pregnanciesHaiti: 7.81 per 100,000, 35.5% of unintended pregnanciesHungary: 16.4 per 100,000, 49.4% of unintended pregnanciesIndonesia: 1.2 per 100,000, 63% of unintended pregnanciesIndia: 12.6 per 100,000, 77.1% of unintended pregnanciesIceland: 11.9 per 100,000, 39.1% of unintended pregnanciesItaly: 6.99 per 100,000, 67.1% of unintended pregnanciesJamaica: 1.69 per 100,000, 43.9% of unintended pregnanciesJapan: 17.4 per 100,000, 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesKazakhstan: 14.6 per 100,000, 82.1% of unintended pregnanciesKenya: 4.58 per 100,000, 38% of unintended pregnanciesKyrgyz Republic: 6.8 per 100,000, 79.2% of unintended pregnanciesCambodia: 4.5 per 100,000, 65.3% of unintended pregnanciesKorea, Rep.: 27.5 per 100,000, 61.9% of unintended pregnanciesLao PDR: 4.58 per 100,000, 68.3% of unintended pregnanciesLiberia: 5.97 per 100,000, 40.4% of unintended pregnanciesSt. Lucia: 5.27 per 100,000, 54.6% of unintended pregnanciesSri Lanka: 14.7 per 100,000, 72.3% of unintended pregnanciesLesotho: 28.7 per 100,000, 23.9% of unintended pregnanciesLithuania: 22.1 per 100,000, 27.7% of unintended pregnanciesLatvia: 15.2 per 100,000, 30.2% of unintended pregnanciesMoldova: 14.1 per 100,000, 70.6% of unintended pregnanciesMadagascar: 6.09 per 100,000, 62.8% of unintended pregnanciesMaldives: 1.47 per 100,000, 70.5% of unintended pregnanciesMexico: 6.95 per 100,000, 50.9% of unintended pregnanciesNorth Macedonia: 5.78 per 100,000, 63.4% of unintended pregnanciesMali: 4.16 per 100,000, 33.5% of unintended pregnanciesMyanmar: 2.89 per 100,000, 74.2% of unintended pregnanciesMontenegro: 11.3 per 100,000, 54.2% of unintended pregnanciesMongolia: 18.5 per 100,000, 65.7% of unintended pregnanciesMozambique: 10.6 per 100,000, 46.7% of unintended pregnanciesMauritania: 2.71 per 100,000, 25.4% of unintended pregnanciesMalawi: 7.57 per 100,000, 27.4% of unintended pregnanciesNamibia: 8.59 per 100,000, 27.9% of unintended pregnanciesNiger: 4.48 per 100,000, 31.3% of unintended pregnanciesNigeria: 4.99 per 100,000, 48.2% of unintended pregnanciesNicaragua: 4.24 per 100,000, 27.5% of unintended pregnanciesNetherlands: 11.5 per 100,000, 40.8% of unintended pregnanciesNorway: 13.2 per 100,000, 31.7% of unintended pregnanciesNepal: 10.1 per 100,000, 69.4% of unintended pregnanciesNew Zealand: 11.9 per 100,000, 29.3% of unintended pregnanciesPakistan: 5.64 per 100,000, 60.9% of unintended pregnanciesPanama: 3.29 per 100,000, 41.3% of unintended pregnanciesPeru: 1.54 per 100,000, 47.5% of unintended pregnanciesPhilippines: 3.49 per 100,000, 50.5% of unintended pregnanciesPapua New Guinea: 1.82 per 100,000, 46.3% of unintended pregnanciesPoland: 13.7 per 100,000, 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesPuerto Rico (US): 5.42 per 100,000, 58.3% of unintended pregnanciesPortugal: 11.5 per 100,000, 32.4% of unintended pregnanciesParaguay: 6.36 per 100,000, 51% of unintended pregnanciesRomania: 9.62 per 100,000, 71.2% of unintended pregnanciesRussian Federation: 21.4 per 100,000, 71.8% of unintended pregnanciesRwanda: 8.68 per 100,000, 28.7% of unintended pregnanciesSenegal: 6.76 per 100,000, 25.1% of unintended pregnanciesSingapore: 8.1 per 100,000, 27.5% of unintended pregnanciesSolomon Islands: 19.6 per 100,000, 28% of unintended pregnanciesSierra Leone: 6.14 per 100,000, 51.5% of unintended pregnanciesEl Salvador: 7.63 per 100,000, 41.5% of unintended pregnanciesSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 7.96 per 100,000, 29.2% of unintended pregnanciesSerbia: 15.1 per 100,000, 60.8% of unintended pregnanciesSao Tome and Principe: 0.86 per 100,000, 29.6% of unintended pregnanciesSuriname: 22.3 per 100,000, 46.5% of unintended pregnanciesSlovak Republic: 9.91 per 100,000, 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesSlovenia: 18.9 per 100,000, 24.4% of unintended pregnanciesSweden: 13.8 per 100,000, 48.3% of unintended pregnanciesEswatini: 27.2 per 100,000, 26.5% of unintended pregnanciesChad: 5.21 per 100,000, 29.5% of unintended pregnanciesTogo: 9.34 per 100,000, 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesThailand: 16.6 per 100,000, 64.4% of unintended pregnanciesTajikistan: 2.43 per 100,000, 71% of unintended pregnanciesTurkmenistan: 6.83 per 100,000, 83.4% of unintended pregnanciesTimor-Leste: 3.56 per 100,000, 67.8% of unintended pregnanciesTonga: 4.73 per 100,000, 52% of unintended pregnanciesTrinidad and Tobago: 13.3 per 100,000, 58% of unintended pregnanciesTanzania: 5.1 per 100,000, 35.9% of unintended pregnanciesUganda: 5.5 per 100,000, 29.7% of unintended pregnanciesUkraine: 21.2 per 100,000, 75.9% of unintended pregnanciesUruguay: 24.8 per 100,000, 27.6% of unintended pregnanciesUnited States: 15.6 per 100,000, 34.2% of unintended pregnanciesUzbekistan: 8.34 per 100,000, 80.2% of unintended pregnanciesViet Nam: 7.3 per 100,000, 74.5% of unintended pregnanciesVanuatu: 15.7 per 100,000, 45.4% of unintended pregnanciesSamoa: 12 per 100,000, 64.5% of unintended pregnanciesSouth Africa: 22.3 per 100,000, 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesZambia: 7.13 per 100,000, 28.2% of unintended pregnanciesZimbabwe: 17.3 per 100,000, 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesARMAZEGEOHNDKORLSOMRTRUSSTPSWZUKRURY

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.1310.121141
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.1640.052141
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1880.026141
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2320.006141

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 141 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.057 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.219 (without UKR) to -0.166 (without LSO). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: UKR (-0.031).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific20-0.20
Europe & Central Asia43-0.15
Latin America & Caribbean26-0.35
Sub-Saharan Africa42-0.17

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third47-0.22
Middle third47-0.04
Richest third47-0.04

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96-0.18
Muslims27+0.10

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.04
Never a European colony16-0.54
Spain17-0.54
United Kingdom38-0.35

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.167 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


per 100,000
% of unintended pregnancies		Years
Lesotho LSO28.723.9%2021, 2019
Korea, Rep. KOR27.561.9%2021, 2019
Eswatini SWZ27.226.5%2021, 2019
Guyana GUY24.847.5%2021, 2019
Uruguay URY24.827.6%2021, 2019
South Africa ZAF22.336.6%2021, 2019
Suriname SUR22.346.5%2021, 2019
Lithuania LTU22.127.7%2021, 2019
Russian Federation RUS21.471.8%2021, 2019
Ukraine UKR21.275.9%2021, 2019
Solomon Islands SLB19.628%2021, 2019
Slovenia SVN18.924.4%2021, 2019
Mongolia MNG18.565.7%2021, 2019
Belgium BEL18.437.1%2021, 2019
Japan JPN17.430.1%2021, 2019

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Bearak, J. M., Popinchalk, A., Beavin, C. et al. (2022), 'Country-specific estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence: a global comparative analysis of levels in 2015-2019', BMJ Global Health 7(3), e007151. Guttmacher Institute. Supplementary appendix, tables A3-A5.

Sources

Suicide rate

Suicide mortality rate (per 100,000 population)

World Health Organization Global Health Observatory · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Estimates from a statistical model. Differences between countries partly reflect how deaths are registered, and how deaths of unclear intent are recorded. Those recording habits are linked to both religion and income.

Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Share of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion (model estimate, 2015-2019)

Guttmacher Institute (Bearak et al. 2022, BMJ Global Health) · CC BY-NC 4.0 · updated one edition (2015-2019 estimates, published 2022)

Of the unintended pregnancies in the abortion rate's model, the share that ended in abortion, averaged over 2015-2019 (Guttmacher Institute). The rest ended in a birth or a miscarriage. Like the other two, it is an estimate with a range. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2019–2021. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Suicide rate and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Suicide rate changes Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Suicide rate or Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion