Official ideology, strength vs. Political stability
Holds up after adjusting for income
Across 169 countries, Official ideology, strength and Political stability rise and fall together at r = -0.24 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.22, q = 0.032, allowing for the many pairs tested).
Comparing countries across the middle half of official ideology, strength, -1.33 to 0.443 points, political stability is worse by 0.287 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.207 points.
Link before adjusting (r)-0.236p = 0.002 · 169 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.221p = 0.004 · likely range [-0.36, -0.07]
p, allowing for regions0.002standard error 0.044 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.032across 17,292 pairs
How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.
Official ideology, strength · score (higher = more)link with income -0.13 · independent
Political stability · index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5)link with income +0.56 · moderate
“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.
Every country as a dot
best-fit line line after adjusting
Four ways to measure the link
Method
r
p
Countries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted
-0.236
0.002
169
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted
-0.232
0.002
169
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income
-0.221
0.004
169
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income
-0.198
0.010
169
The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 169 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.014 (a minus sign means it grew).
How solid is it?
Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.239 (without LAO) to -0.198 (without IRN). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: IRN (+0.023).
Within each region
Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.
n
r
East Asia & Pacific
21
-0.25
Europe & Central Asia
49
-0.33
Latin America & Caribbean
23
-0.07
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
22
-0.15
Sub-Saharan Africa
46
-0.27
By income third
If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.
n
r
Poorest third
57
-0.25
Middle third
56
-0.08
Richest third
56
-0.38
By largest religious group
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
Christians
99
-0.20
Muslims
49
-0.10
By last European coloniser
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
France
25
-0.13
Never a European colony
21
-0.43
Spain
19
-0.26
United Kingdom
49
-0.15
By official ideology
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
Nationalist
25
-0.34
No strong official ideology
117
-0.08
By party system
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
A few parties banned
26
-0.05
No parties banned
122
-0.21
Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.190 after dropping 3 countries.
Two series, one country
Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.
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Over time, within countries
Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 28years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.
Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.033, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose official ideology, strength moved did not tend to see their political stability move with it.
Across countries (adjusted)-0.221for comparison
Within countries-0.029each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.033q = 0.790 · 176 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.035q = 0.345
4,377 country-years (one country in one year), 176 countries, 1996–2023, about 25 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 10% for Official ideology, strength, 13% for Political stability. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.
Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.
With one measure years behind the other
Same year (lag 0): -0.033. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.
This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.
The data
score (higher = more)
index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5)
Years
Afghanistan AFG
3.28
-2.21
2023, 2024
Eswatini SWZ
3.19
-0.733
2023, 2024
Iran, Islamic Rep. IRN
2.73
-1.58
2023, 2024
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG
2.44
0.631
2023, 2024
Belarus BLR
2.17
-0.377
2023, 2024
Turkmenistan TKM
2.09
0.246
2023, 2024
India IND
2.08
-0.786
2023, 2024
Viet Nam VNM
2.02
0.00567
2023, 2024
China CHN
2.02
-0.153
2023, 2024
Lao PDR LAO
1.8
0.558
2023, 2024
Nicaragua NIC
1.78
-0.0694
2023, 2024
Russian Federation RUS
1.76
-0.903
2023, 2024
Bangladesh BGD
1.67
-1.46
2023, 2024
Turkiye TUR
1.64
-0.971
2023, 2024
Syrian Arab Republic SYR
1.53
-2.37
2023, 2024
Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset v16, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project; Lindberg, S. I. et al., Varieties of Party Identity and Organization (V-Party) Dataset. Read from the V-Dem Institute's vdemdata package. Kaufmann, D. and A. Kraay, Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank
How far the government justifies itself with an official ideology
V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · CC BY-SA 4.0 · updated annual (V-Dem); V-Party per election, to 2019
To what extent does the government promote a set of official beliefs, such as socialism, nationalism or a religion, to justify its rule? Experts answer from 0 ("not at all") to 4 ("almost exclusively"), and V-Dem turns the answers into a score of about -4 to +4. Which ideology it is appears in the "official ideology" label. V-Dem's coding of this question runs to 2023.
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism (estimate)
World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual
How this was computed
Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2020–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 17,292 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated V-Dem v16; V-Party v2. How the country data works · explore Official ideology, strength and Political stability
This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Official ideology, strength changes Political stability, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.
More links with Official ideology, strength or Political stability