placestats

Median age vs. Tertiary enrollment

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 178 countries, Median age and Tertiary enrollment rise and fall together at r = +0.73 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.35 (q = 0.033, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak positive link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of median age, 22.3 to 39.2 years, tertiary enrollment is better by 43% gross at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 28.1% gross.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.731p = 5.0e-31 · 178 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.348p = 2.1e-6 · likely range [+0.21, +0.47]
p, allowing for regions0.002standard error 0.068 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.033across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Median age · yearslink with income +0.86 · proxy
Tertiary enrollment · % grosslink with income +0.75 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Median age · years →Tertiary enrollment · % gross →14.3492.57%165%Aruba: 41 years, 14.1% grossAfghanistan: 16.9 years, 10.9% grossAngola: 16.5 years, 9.95% grossAlbania: 36.3 years, 84.1% grossAndorra: 43.2 years, 67.7% grossUnited Arab Emirates: 31.2 years, 63.7% grossArgentina: 32.1 years, 108% grossArmenia: 35.8 years, 52.8% grossAntigua and Barbuda: 35.5 years, 25.1% grossAustralia: 37.8 years, 108% grossAustria: 43.1 years, 92.6% grossAzerbaijan: 32.6 years, 41.3% grossBurundi: 15.9 years, 6.38% grossBelgium: 41.4 years, 82.1% grossBenin: 17.8 years, 10.2% grossBurkina Faso: 17.3 years, 10% grossBangladesh: 25.3 years, 23.7% grossBulgaria: 44.3 years, 69.5% grossBahrain: 32.9 years, 58.4% grossBosnia and Herzegovina: 44.9 years, 45.5% grossBelarus: 40.5 years, 70.1% grossBelize: 25.9 years, 24.8% grossBermuda: 45.1 years, 17.3% grossBrazil: 33.9 years, 69.7% grossBarbados: 38.9 years, 50.8% grossBrunei Darussalam: 31.8 years, 36.4% grossBhutan: 29.4 years, 13% grossBotswana: 22.9 years, 21.4% grossCentral African Republic: 14.3 years, 2.78% grossCanada: 40.3 years, 76.3% grossSwitzerland: 42.3 years, 73.5% grossChile: 36 years, 110% grossChina: 39.1 years, 76.9% grossCote d'Ivoire: 18.1 years, 12.3% grossCameroon: 17.8 years, 16.7% grossCongo, Dem. Rep.: 15.8 years, 6.38% grossCongo, Rep.: 18.3 years, 10.4% grossColombia: 31.6 years, 59.3% grossComoros: 20.3 years, 18.8% grossCabo Verde: 27.9 years, 24.3% grossCosta Rica: 34.1 years, 55% grossCuracao: 38.2 years, 23.1% grossCyprus: 37.8 years, 121% grossCzechia: 42.7 years, 66.7% grossGermany: 45.1 years, 76.7% grossDjibouti: 24.4 years, 5.16% grossDenmark: 41.2 years, 79% grossDominican Republic: 27.7 years, 57.7% grossAlgeria: 28.2 years, 54.4% grossEcuador: 28.4 years, 67.9% grossEgypt, Arab Rep.: 24 years, 38% grossSpain: 44.9 years, 93.8% grossEstonia: 41.9 years, 65.7% grossEthiopia: 18.7 years, 5.92% grossFinland: 42.8 years, 110% grossFiji: 27.7 years, 75% grossFrance: 41.8 years, 71.5% grossUnited Kingdom: 39.8 years, 80.4% grossGeorgia: 36.8 years, 89.5% grossGhana: 20.9 years, 21.3% grossGuinea: 18 years, 10.9% grossGambia, The: 18.2 years, 13.5% grossGreece: 45.7 years, 165% grossGrenada: 33.4 years, 100% grossGuatemala: 22.6 years, 27.3% grossGuyana: 25.6 years, 26.4% grossHong Kong SAR, China: 46.2 years, 120% grossHonduras: 23.5 years, 23.3% grossCroatia: 44.8 years, 81.2% grossHungary: 43.3 years, 60.5% grossIndonesia: 29.8 years, 44.9% grossIndia: 28.1 years, 34.4% grossIreland: 38.4 years, 77.6% grossIran, Islamic Rep.: 32.9 years, 58.7% grossIceland: 35.8 years, 76.5% grossIsrael: 29.1 years, 56.3% grossItaly: 47.5 years, 75.9% grossJamaica: 31.7 years, 26.2% grossJordan: 24.3 years, 35.9% grossJapan: 49 years, 64.5% grossKazakhstan: 29.5 years, 52.9% grossKenya: 19.5 years, 10.4% grossKyrgyz Republic: 25.1 years, 53.9% grossCambodia: 25.8 years, 21.4% grossKiribati: 22.7 years, 4.96% grossSt. Kitts and Nevis: 35.3 years, 93.9% grossKorea, Rep.: 44.5 years, 112% grossKuwait: 34.5 years, 51.9% grossLao PDR: 24.3 years, 14.9% grossLebanon: 28.3 years, 54.4% grossLiberia: 18.4 years, 10.8% grossSt. Lucia: 33.7 years, 15% grossSri Lanka: 32.8 years, 20.7% grossLesotho: 21.4 years, 9.94% grossLithuania: 42.1 years, 75.6% grossLuxembourg: 38.9 years, 22.4% grossLatvia: 43.1 years, 82.9% grossMacao SAR, China: 38.3 years, 142% grossMorocco: 29.2 years, 48.2% grossMoldova: 37.8 years, 74.7% grossMadagascar: 18.9 years, 6.15% grossMaldives: 31.1 years, 48.5% grossMexico: 28.9 years, 48.2% grossMarshall Islands: 20.7 years, 37.7% grossNorth Macedonia: 40.3 years, 55% grossMali: 15.5 years, 5.13% grossMalta: 40.3 years, 80.5% grossMyanmar: 29.5 years, 20.4% grossMontenegro: 39.3 years, 55.2% grossMongolia: 26.8 years, 69% grossMozambique: 16.3 years, 7.46% grossMauritania: 17.1 years, 5.97% grossMauritius: 36.9 years, 45.8% grossMalawi: 17.6 years, 2.71% grossMalaysia: 30.1 years, 38.5% grossNamibia: 21 years, 26.1% grossNiger: 15.3 years, 4.15% grossNigeria: 17.8 years, 9.74% grossNicaragua: 25.3 years, 30.4% grossNetherlands: 41.4 years, 86.6% grossNorway: 39.5 years, 95.5% grossNepal: 24.7 years, 21.3% grossNew Zealand: 37.3 years, 77.2% grossOman: 29.3 years, 42.2% grossPakistan: 20.3 years, 10.9% grossPanama: 29.6 years, 53.7% grossPeru: 29.5 years, 71.2% grossPhilippines: 25.3 years, 47.4% grossPalau: 37.8 years, 71.8% grossPoland: 41.3 years, 80.9% grossPuerto Rico (US): 45.3 years, 77.9% grossPortugal: 46.2 years, 77.7% grossParaguay: 26.3 years, 37.6% grossWest Bank and Gaza: 19.8 years, 44.5% grossQatar: 33.2 years, 43% grossRomania: 42.6 years, 55.2% grossRussian Federation: 39.5 years, 60.4% grossRwanda: 19.4 years, 9.41% grossSaudi Arabia: 29.2 years, 83.9% grossSudan: 18.3 years, 15.9% grossSenegal: 19.1 years, 15.3% grossSingapore: 35.1 years, 97.3% grossEl Salvador: 27 years, 32.8% grossSan Marino: 47.4 years, 57.5% grossSerbia: 43.9 years, 70.6% grossSao Tome and Principe: 19.1 years, 12.8% grossSuriname: 28.1 years, 2.57% grossSlovak Republic: 41.3 years, 54.5% grossSlovenia: 43.9 years, 80.1% grossSweden: 39.9 years, 84% grossEswatini: 22 years, 6.44% grossSint Maarten (Dutch part): 41.6 years, 7.65% grossSeychelles: 33.7 years, 14.5% grossSyrian Arab Republic: 22.2 years, 43.8% grossTurks and Caicos Islands: 38.3 years, 25.3% grossChad: 15.4 years, 4.4% grossTogo: 18.1 years, 14.9% grossThailand: 39.7 years, 49.1% grossTajikistan: 21.9 years, 35.6% grossTurkmenistan: 26.2 years, 20.4% grossTimor-Leste: 21 years, 31% grossTonga: 20.7 years, 42.9% grossTrinidad and Tobago: 36.7 years, 23.8% grossTunisia: 32.1 years, 38.1% grossTurkiye: 32.5 years, 106% grossTuvalu: 24.3 years, 19.4% grossTanzania: 17.2 years, 4.02% grossUganda: 16.5 years, 4.62% grossUkraine: 42 years, 87.2% grossUruguay: 35.8 years, 80% grossUnited States: 38 years, 79.4% grossUzbekistan: 26.9 years, 59.8% grossSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 33.9 years, 41.5% grossViet Nam: 32.4 years, 37.6% grossSamoa: 19.9 years, 16% grossSouth Africa: 28.2 years, 23.5% grossZambia: 17.5 years, 3.96% grossZimbabwe: 17.8 years, 7.75% grossABWARGBMUCAFGRCHKGMACNERSXMTCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.7315.0e-31178
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.7651.8e-35178
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3482.1e-6178
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3723.3e-7178

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 178 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.383 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.319 (without GUY) to +0.373 (without MAC). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GUY (-0.028).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific26+0.26
Europe & Central Asia50+0.27
Latin America & Caribbean32+0.12
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20+0.33
Sub-Saharan Africa41+0.56

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third60+0.49
Middle third59+0.26
Richest third59+0.29

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians102+0.45
Muslims44+0.43

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.54
Never a European colony21+0.21
Spain17+0.62
United Kingdom54+0.35

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.322 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link also shows up within countries over time (r = +0.372). It holds even when looking only at changes from one year to the next (r = +0.108). This is the strongest kind of evidence available here: it holds when each country is compared only with itself, and it is not just a product of shared trends.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.348for comparison
Within countries+0.727each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.372q = 0.000 · 183 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.108q = 0.000
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.
  • The association is much weaker in year-on-year changes than in levels, which points to shared country-specific trends.

3,719 country-years (one country in one year), 183 countries, 1990–2023, about 20 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 7% for Median age, 18% for Tertiary enrollment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.50−0.5-100+10years Tertiary enrollment trails Median age →lag -10: r = 0.381 (n = 2,334)lag -9: r = 0.395 (n = 2,471)lag -8: r = 0.403 (n = 2,622)lag -7: r = 0.407 (n = 2,757)lag -6: r = 0.407 (n = 2,909)lag -5: r = 0.401 (n = 3,051)lag -4: r = 0.395 (n = 3,192)lag -3: r = 0.391 (n = 3,327)lag -2: r = 0.384 (n = 3,455)lag -1: r = 0.381 (n = 3,593)lag +0: r = 0.372 (n = 3,719)lag +1: r = 0.360 (n = 3,724)lag +2: r = 0.352 (n = 3,660)lag +3: r = 0.338 (n = 3,580)lag +4: r = 0.327 (n = 3,516)lag +5: r = 0.316 (n = 3,456)lag +6: r = 0.299 (n = 3,392)lag +7: r = 0.287 (n = 3,331)lag +8: r = 0.272 (n = 3,286)lag +9: r = 0.255 (n = 3,240)lag +10: r = 0.235 (n = 3,146)

Same year (lag 0): +0.372. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


years
% gross		Years
Japan JPN4964.5%2023
Italy ITA47.575.9%2023
San Marino SMR47.457.5%2023, 2024
Portugal PRT46.277.7%2023
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG46.2120%2023, 2024
Greece GRC45.7165%2023
Puerto Rico (US) PRI45.377.9%2023
Germany DEU45.176.7%2023, 2024
Bermuda BMU45.117.3%2023
Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH44.945.5%2023
Spain ESP44.993.8%2023, 2024
Croatia HRV44.881.2%2023
Korea, Rep. KOR44.5112%2023, 2024
Bulgaria BGR44.369.5%2023, 2024
Slovenia SVN43.980.1%2023

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024 and Estimates and Projections of Women of Reproductive Age Who Are Married or in a Union
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Median age

Median age of the population

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated biennial

The age that splits a population in half: half are older and half are younger. The shares aged under 15 and over 65 are already on the site. All three are treated as measuring the same thing. They are readings of the same age pyramid, so they are bound to match, and their agreement is not a finding. No "better" direction is set.

Tertiary enrollment

School enrollment, tertiary (% gross)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Median age and Tertiary enrollment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Median age changes Tertiary enrollment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Median age or Tertiary enrollment