placestats

Inflation vs. Trade openness

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 172 countries, Inflation and Trade openness rise and fall together at r = -0.21 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.18, q = 0.037, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of inflation, 1.43% to 4.61% per year, trade openness is 1.8% of GDP lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.38% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.208p = 0.006 · 172 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.178p = 0.020 · likely range [-0.32, -0.03]
p, allowing for regions0.003standard error 0.037 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.037across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Inflation · % per yearlink with income -0.22 · independent
Trade openness · % of GDPlink with income +0.41 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Inflation · % per year →Trade openness · % of GDP →-6.6%220%2.38%397%Aruba: 4.26% per year, 164% of GDPAfghanistan: -6.6% per year, 83.8% of GDPAngola: 20.2% per year, 34.6% of GDPAlbania: 2.15% per year, 79.5% of GDPUnited Arab Emirates: 1.25% per year, 199% of GDPArgentina: 220% per year, 30.4% of GDPArmenia: 3.31% per year, 102% of GDPAntigua and Barbuda: 1.37% per year, 118% of GDPAustralia: 2.87% per year, 45.9% of GDPAustria: 3.53% per year, 107% of GDPAzerbaijan: 5.62% per year, 79.8% of GDPBelgium: 2.47% per year, 153% of GDPBenin: 1.1% per year, 37.1% of GDPBurkina Faso: -0.586% per year, 65% of GDPBangladesh: 8.77% per year, 28% of GDPBulgaria: 4.58% per year, 103% of GDPBahrain: -0.138% per year, 157% of GDPBahamas, The: 0.409% per year, 79.2% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 6.11% per year, 95.1% of GDPBelarus: 6.6% per year, 112% of GDPBelize: 1.06% per year, 109% of GDPBolivia: 19.5% per year, 47% of GDPBrazil: 5.02% per year, 35.3% of GDPBrunei Darussalam: -0.303% per year, 124% of GDPBhutan: 3.56% per year, 79.4% of GDPBotswana: 2.66% per year, 69.5% of GDPCentral African Republic: 1% per year, 52.9% of GDPCanada: 2.07% per year, 63.5% of GDPSwitzerland: 0.154% per year, 147% of GDPChile: 4.21% per year, 65% of GDPChina: 0.0596% per year, 38% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 0.125% per year, 54.6% of GDPCameroon: 3.4% per year, 33.4% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 2.89% per year, 87.3% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 2.4% per year, 91.7% of GDPColombia: 5.14% per year, 35.4% of GDPComoros: 3.25% per year, 40.9% of GDPCabo Verde: 2.34% per year, 95.3% of GDPCosta Rica: -0.0737% per year, 71.5% of GDPCuracao: 2.62% per year, 155% of GDPCayman Islands: -0.625% per year, 105% of GDPCyprus: 0.127% per year, 189% of GDPCzechia: 2.46% per year, 128% of GDPGermany: 2.17% per year, 78.5% of GDPDjibouti: -0.314% per year, 206% of GDPDenmark: 1.89% per year, 129% of GDPDominican Republic: 3.87% per year, 51.5% of GDPAlgeria: 1.42% per year, 39% of GDPEcuador: 0.71% per year, 59.4% of GDPEgypt, Arab Rep.: 14.1% per year, 51.3% of GDPSpain: 2.7% per year, 69.5% of GDPEstonia: 4.83% per year, 156% of GDPEthiopia: 13.2% per year, 33.5% of GDPFinland: 0.338% per year, 83.4% of GDPFiji: -1.38% per year, 119% of GDPFrance: 0.944% per year, 67.2% of GDPMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 5.41% per year, 93.1% of GDPGabon: 1.77% per year, 84.9% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 3.88% per year, 62.5% of GDPGeorgia: 3.87% per year, 101% of GDPGhana: 14.2% per year, 69% of GDPGuinea: 3.55% per year, 104% of GDPGambia, The: 11.6% per year, 62.2% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 0.875% per year, 40.9% of GDPEquatorial Guinea: 2.92% per year, 74.9% of GDPGreece: 2.48% per year, 83.5% of GDPGuatemala: 1.49% per year, 46.5% of GDPHong Kong SAR, China: 1.44% per year, 397% of GDPHonduras: 4.6% per year, 91.5% of GDPCroatia: 3.69% per year, 101% of GDPHaiti: 28.6% per year, 15.9% of GDPHungary: 4.41% per year, 141% of GDPIndonesia: 1.91% per year, 43.4% of GDPIndia: 2.4% per year, 46.3% of GDPIreland: 2.21% per year, 240% of GDPIran, Islamic Rep.: 42.2% per year, 60.2% of GDPIraq: 0.303% per year, 77.1% of GDPIceland: 4.09% per year, 82.5% of GDPIsrael: 3.04% per year, 53% of GDPItaly: 1.53% per year, 62.5% of GDPJapan: 3.17% per year, 44.9% of GDPKazakhstan: 11.4% per year, 57.2% of GDPKenya: 4.07% per year, 37.5% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 8.21% per year, 92.4% of GDPCambodia: 2.35% per year, 136% of GDPKiribati: 2.46% per year, 102% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 2.12% per year, 86.4% of GDPKuwait: 2.36% per year, 94% of GDPLao PDR: 7.74% per year, 75.1% of GDPLebanon: 14.6% per year, 82.2% of GDPLibya: 1.84% per year, 138% of GDPSri Lanka: -4.76% per year, 41.8% of GDPLesotho: 4.27% per year, 154% of GDPLithuania: 3.79% per year, 142% of GDPLuxembourg: 2.26% per year, 350% of GDPLatvia: 3.75% per year, 130% of GDPMacao SAR, China: 0.333% per year, 139% of GDPMorocco: 0.702% per year, 93.1% of GDPMoldova: 7.76% per year, 92.7% of GDPMadagascar: 8.05% per year, 54.2% of GDPMaldives: 4.01% per year, 156% of GDPMexico: 3.81% per year, 79.9% of GDPNorth Macedonia: 4.07% per year, 133% of GDPMali: 3.28% per year, 48.8% of GDPMalta: 2.36% per year, 219% of GDPMontenegro: 3.9% per year, 106% of GDPMongolia: 8.61% per year, 131% of GDPMozambique: 4.37% per year, 97.1% of GDPMauritania: 1.55% per year, 94% of GDPMauritius: 3.67% per year, 140% of GDPMalawi: 28.4% per year, 39.4% of GDPMalaysia: 1.38% per year, 136% of GDPNamibia: 3.51% per year, 109% of GDPNiger: -4.45% per year, 33.9% of GDPNicaragua: 2.08% per year, 96.4% of GDPNetherlands: 3.26% per year, 150% of GDPNorway: 3.06% per year, 79.1% of GDPNepal: 2.65% per year, 42.6% of GDPNaoero: -0.125% per year, 165% of GDPNew Zealand: 2.84% per year, 50.7% of GDPOman: 0.968% per year, 115% of GDPPakistan: 3.55% per year, 27.2% of GDPPanama: -0.19% per year, 83.7% of GDPPeru: 1.53% per year, 51.8% of GDPPhilippines: 1.66% per year, 66.8% of GDPPalau: -0.418% per year, 106% of GDPPoland: 3.81% per year, 97% of GDPPortugal: 2.34% per year, 86.4% of GDPParaguay: 4.04% per year, 76.5% of GDPWest Bank and Gaza: 9.81% per year, 74.8% of GDPQatar: 1.27% per year, 100% of GDPRomania: 7.19% per year, 76.2% of GDPRussian Federation: 8.72% per year, 33.7% of GDPRwanda: 5.91% per year, 56.7% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 2.08% per year, 57.9% of GDPSudan: 139% per year, 2.38% of GDPSenegal: 1.46% per year, 71.1% of GDPSingapore: 0.903% per year, 320% of GDPSolomon Islands: 3.36% per year, 111% of GDPSierra Leone: 7.49% per year, 49.1% of GDPEl Salvador: 0.258% per year, 88.2% of GDPSan Marino: 2.3% per year, 341% of GDPSerbia: 3.89% per year, 113% of GDPSao Tome and Principe: 11% per year, 46.6% of GDPSuriname: 9.21% per year, 91% of GDPSlovak Republic: 4% per year, 170% of GDPSlovenia: 2.37% per year, 152% of GDPSweden: 0.68% per year, 104% of GDPEswatini: 2.6% per year, 107% of GDPSeychelles: 0.298% per year, 172% of GDPSyrian Arab Republic: 13.4% per year, 35.4% of GDPChad: -3.91% per year, 46.1% of GDPTogo: 0.433% per year, 59.9% of GDPThailand: -0.134% per year, 138% of GDPTajikistan: 6% per year, 59.1% of GDPTimor-Leste: 0.428% per year, 95.4% of GDPTonga: 5.59% per year, 77.6% of GDPTunisia: 5.15% per year, 101% of GDPTurkiye: 34.9% per year, 49.9% of GDPTanzania: 3.33% per year, 39% of GDPUganda: 3.58% per year, 50.2% of GDPUkraine: 12.7% per year, 77.2% of GDPUruguay: 4.65% per year, 49.7% of GDPUnited States: 2.95% per year, 25% of GDPUzbekistan: 8.8% per year, 57.4% of GDPViet Nam: 3.31% per year, 190% of GDPVanuatu: 0.656% per year, 73.4% of GDPSamoa: 2.21% per year, 70.6% of GDPKosovo: 3.86% per year, 118% of GDPSouth Africa: 3.21% per year, 60.9% of GDPZambia: 13.9% per year, 62.5% of GDPZimbabwe: 105% per year, 41.5% of GDPARGHKGLKALUXNERSDNSMRUSAZWE

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.2080.006172
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.2730.000172
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1780.020172
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2110.006172

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 172 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.030 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.190 (without HKG) to -0.146 (without ARG). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: ARG (+0.031).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific27-0.08
Europe & Central Asia49-0.20
Latin America & Caribbean25-0.35
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan21-0.31
Sub-Saharan Africa42-0.32

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third58-0.32
Middle third57-0.27
Richest third57-0.09

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians100-0.20
Muslims46-0.30

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.25
Never a European colony19-0.31
Spain20-0.41
United Kingdom48-0.19

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.115 after dropping 31 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 36years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.004, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose inflation moved did not tend to see their trade openness move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.178for comparison
Within countries-0.020each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.004q = 0.835 · 177 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.005q = 0.842

5,349 country-years (one country in one year), 177 countries, 1990–2025, about 30 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 95% for Inflation, 12% for Trade openness. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Trade openness trails Inflation →lag -10: r = -0.023 (n = 3,917)lag -9: r = -0.025 (n = 4,068)lag -8: r = -0.023 (n = 4,221)lag -7: r = -0.019 (n = 4,384)lag -6: r = -0.013 (n = 4,539)lag -5: r = -0.018 (n = 4,686)lag -4: r = -0.018 (n = 4,835)lag -3: r = -0.015 (n = 4,978)lag -2: r = 0.018 (n = 5,118)lag -1: r = 0.030 (n = 5,244)lag +0: r = 0.004 (n = 5,349)lag +1: r = 0.003 (n = 5,213)lag +2: r = 0.011 (n = 5,073)lag +3: r = -0.009 (n = 4,927)lag +4: r = 0.011 (n = 4,775)lag +5: r = -0.008 (n = 4,624)lag +6: r = -0.016 (n = 4,467)lag +7: r = -0.015 (n = 4,306)lag +8: r = -0.018 (n = 4,149)lag +9: r = 0.008 (n = 3,990)lag +10: r = 0.000 (n = 3,825)

Same year (lag 0): +0.004. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% per year
% of GDP		Years
Argentina ARG220%30.4%2024, 2025
Sudan SDN139%2.38%2022, 2025
Zimbabwe ZWE105%41.5%2022, 2024
Iran, Islamic Rep. IRN42.2%60.2%2025
Turkiye TUR34.9%49.9%2025
Haiti HTI28.6%15.9%2025
Malawi MWI28.4%39.4%2025
Angola AGO20.2%34.6%2025
Bolivia BOL19.5%47%2025, 2024
Lebanon LBN14.6%82.2%2025, 2024
Ghana GHA14.2%69%2025, 2024
Egypt, Arab Rep. EGY14.1%51.3%2025
Zambia ZMB13.9%62.5%2025, 2024
Syrian Arab Republic SYR13.4%35.4%2019, 2022
Ethiopia ETH13.2%33.5%2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Inflation

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Trade openness

Trade (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Inflation and Trade openness

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Inflation changes Trade openness, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Inflation or Trade openness