placestats

Health spending vs. Out of school, primary

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 177 countries, Health spending and Out of school, primary rise and fall together at r = -0.20 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.13, q = 0.050, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed.

Comparing countries across the middle half of health spending, 4.44% to 8.82% of GDP, out of school, primary is better by 2.89% of primary-age children at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.7% of primary-age children.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.198p = 0.008 · 177 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.133p = 0.079 · likely range [-0.28, +0.02]
p, allowing for regions0.005standard error 0.031 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.050across 13,797 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Health spending · % of GDPlink with income +0.29 · independent
Out of school, primary · % of primary-age childrenlink with income -0.45 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Health spending · % of GDP →Out of school, primary · % of primary-age children →1.33%27.1%0.00387%65.6%Angola: 2.55% of GDP, 36.8% of primary-age childrenAlbania: 7.05% of GDP, 0.488% of primary-age childrenAndorra: 7.7% of GDP, 2.41% of primary-age childrenUnited Arab Emirates: 4.97% of GDP, 0.00387% of primary-age childrenArgentina: 10.3% of GDP, 0.735% of primary-age childrenArmenia: 9.32% of GDP, 1.08% of primary-age childrenAntigua and Barbuda: 3.91% of GDP, 1.71% of primary-age childrenAustralia: 10.4% of GDP, 0.124% of primary-age childrenAustria: 11.8% of GDP, 1.43% of primary-age childrenAzerbaijan: 4.27% of GDP, 0.0266% of primary-age childrenBurundi: 9.09% of GDP, 26.5% of primary-age childrenBelgium: 10.8% of GDP, 1.66% of primary-age childrenBenin: 3.34% of GDP, 9.61% of primary-age childrenBurkina Faso: 7.8% of GDP, 34.3% of primary-age childrenBangladesh: 2.17% of GDP, 5.86% of primary-age childrenBulgaria: 7.92% of GDP, 5.9% of primary-age childrenBahrain: 4% of GDP, 4.75% of primary-age childrenBahamas, The: 6.3% of GDP, 15.9% of primary-age childrenBosnia and Herzegovina: 8.92% of GDP, 2.1% of primary-age childrenBelarus: 7.08% of GDP, 4.49% of primary-age childrenBelize: 4.15% of GDP, 10.7% of primary-age childrenBolivia: 6.92% of GDP, 9.25% of primary-age childrenBrazil: 9.73% of GDP, 2.19% of primary-age childrenBarbados: 5.4% of GDP, 17.6% of primary-age childrenBrunei Darussalam: 2.23% of GDP, 3.61% of primary-age childrenBhutan: 4.42% of GDP, 10.5% of primary-age childrenBotswana: 6.26% of GDP, 0.535% of primary-age childrenCentral African Republic: 10.7% of GDP, 37.9% of primary-age childrenCanada: 11.3% of GDP, 4.99% of primary-age childrenSwitzerland: 11.7% of GDP, 0.143% of primary-age childrenChile: 10.5% of GDP, 2.12% of primary-age childrenCote d'Ivoire: 3.43% of GDP, 12.6% of primary-age childrenCameroon: 4.55% of GDP, 3.76% of primary-age childrenCongo, Rep.: 3.3% of GDP, 17.1% of primary-age childrenColombia: 8.14% of GDP, 7.32% of primary-age childrenComoros: 6.55% of GDP, 20.6% of primary-age childrenCabo Verde: 5.85% of GDP, 41.8% of primary-age childrenCosta Rica: 6.87% of GDP, 4.49% of primary-age childrenCyprus: 8.12% of GDP, 0.425% of primary-age childrenCzechia: 8.51% of GDP, 0.809% of primary-age childrenGermany: 12.3% of GDP, 0.274% of primary-age childrenDominica: 5.01% of GDP, 3.95% of primary-age childrenDenmark: 9.39% of GDP, 0.893% of primary-age childrenDominican Republic: 4.6% of GDP, 4.93% of primary-age childrenAlgeria: 4.35% of GDP, 1.57% of primary-age childrenEcuador: 7.56% of GDP, 4.72% of primary-age childrenEgypt, Arab Rep.: 4.88% of GDP, 3.51% of primary-age childrenSpain: 9.22% of GDP, 1.24% of primary-age childrenEstonia: 7.84% of GDP, 3.39% of primary-age childrenEthiopia: 2.8% of GDP, 22.5% of primary-age childrenFinland: 10.5% of GDP, 1.77% of primary-age childrenFiji: 3.62% of GDP, 2.39% of primary-age childrenFrance: 11.5% of GDP, 0.204% of primary-age childrenMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 12.9% of GDP, 23.1% of primary-age childrenGabon: 3.13% of GDP, 28.8% of primary-age childrenUnited Kingdom: 11.1% of GDP, 0.0698% of primary-age childrenGeorgia: 6.86% of GDP, 6.17% of primary-age childrenGhana: 2.95% of GDP, 4.77% of primary-age childrenGuinea: 3.69% of GDP, 14.7% of primary-age childrenGambia, The: 2.89% of GDP, 16.9% of primary-age childrenGuinea-Bissau: 8.82% of GDP, 30.5% of primary-age childrenEquatorial Guinea: 3.5% of GDP, 65.6% of primary-age childrenGreece: 8.39% of GDP, 0.11% of primary-age childrenGrenada: 4.65% of GDP, 4.94% of primary-age childrenGuatemala: 6.8% of GDP, 8.43% of primary-age childrenGuyana: 2.47% of GDP, 18% of primary-age childrenHonduras: 7.71% of GDP, 26.6% of primary-age childrenCroatia: 7.15% of GDP, 1.81% of primary-age childrenHungary: 6.37% of GDP, 2.81% of primary-age childrenIndonesia: 2.7% of GDP, 0.877% of primary-age childrenIndia: 3.34% of GDP, 0.119% of primary-age childrenIreland: 6.85% of GDP, 1.81% of primary-age childrenIran, Islamic Rep.: 6.03% of GDP, 0.103% of primary-age childrenIceland: 8.98% of GDP, 1.82% of primary-age childrenIsrael: 7.1% of GDP, 2.66% of primary-age childrenItaly: 8.44% of GDP, 2.06% of primary-age childrenJamaica: 7.6% of GDP, 4.34% of primary-age childrenJordan: 7.66% of GDP, 1.89% of primary-age childrenJapan: 10.7% of GDP, 0.0684% of primary-age childrenKazakhstan: 3.77% of GDP, 7.91% of primary-age childrenKenya: 4.35% of GDP, 32.9% of primary-age childrenKyrgyz Republic: 4.5% of GDP, 2.96% of primary-age childrenCambodia: 4.62% of GDP, 3.69% of primary-age childrenKiribati: 10.9% of GDP, 8.71% of primary-age childrenKorea, Rep.: 8.68% of GDP, 0.0557% of primary-age childrenKuwait: 4.96% of GDP, 7.47% of primary-age childrenLao PDR: 1.33% of GDP, 10.4% of primary-age childrenLebanon: 5.57% of GDP, 22.5% of primary-age childrenLiberia: 13% of GDP, 38.3% of primary-age childrenSt. Lucia: 4.73% of GDP, 7.01% of primary-age childrenSri Lanka: 3.68% of GDP, 9.14% of primary-age childrenLesotho: 12.6% of GDP, 32.2% of primary-age childrenLithuania: 7.6% of GDP, 0.13% of primary-age childrenLuxembourg: 5.89% of GDP, 0.256% of primary-age childrenLatvia: 7.28% of GDP, 2.74% of primary-age childrenMorocco: 6.06% of GDP, 0.471% of primary-age childrenMoldova: 6.74% of GDP, 0.463% of primary-age childrenMadagascar: 3.43% of GDP, 3.4% of primary-age childrenMaldives: 9.25% of GDP, 0.946% of primary-age childrenMexico: 5.5% of GDP, 0.363% of primary-age childrenMarshall Islands: 13.4% of GDP, 1.48% of primary-age childrenNorth Macedonia: 7.43% of GDP, 3.79% of primary-age childrenMali: 3.81% of GDP, 34% of primary-age childrenMalta: 8.84% of GDP, 2.64% of primary-age childrenMyanmar: 4.46% of GDP, 1.41% of primary-age childrenMontenegro: 9.65% of GDP, 0.218% of primary-age childrenMongolia: 6.07% of GDP, 8.56% of primary-age childrenMozambique: 8.5% of GDP, 1% of primary-age childrenMauritania: 4.34% of GDP, 11.3% of primary-age childrenMauritius: 5.57% of GDP, 0.785% of primary-age childrenMalawi: 6.53% of GDP, 2.09% of primary-age childrenMalaysia: 3.96% of GDP, 12% of primary-age childrenNamibia: 9.48% of GDP, 0.865% of primary-age childrenNiger: 4.05% of GDP, 40.4% of primary-age childrenNigeria: 4.19% of GDP, 24.3% of primary-age childrenNicaragua: 8.3% of GDP, 6.66% of primary-age childrenNetherlands: 10% of GDP, 0.519% of primary-age childrenNorway: 9.43% of GDP, 1.38% of primary-age childrenNepal: 6.16% of GDP, 0.762% of primary-age childrenNaoero: 18.2% of GDP, 6.6% of primary-age childrenNew Zealand: 10.1% of GDP, 2.62% of primary-age childrenOman: 3.49% of GDP, 5.76% of primary-age childrenPakistan: 2.52% of GDP, 17.9% of primary-age childrenPanama: 8.33% of GDP, 7.7% of primary-age childrenPeru: 5.64% of GDP, 0.156% of primary-age childrenPhilippines: 5.1% of GDP, 11.6% of primary-age childrenPalau: 10.9% of GDP, 1.33% of primary-age childrenPapua New Guinea: 2.87% of GDP, 4% of primary-age childrenPoland: 8.06% of GDP, 0.0917% of primary-age childrenPortugal: 10.2% of GDP, 0.508% of primary-age childrenParaguay: 8.36% of GDP, 13.3% of primary-age childrenWest Bank and Gaza: 10.7% of GDP, 9.56% of primary-age childrenQatar: 2.52% of GDP, 4.62% of primary-age childrenRomania: 5.71% of GDP, 15.6% of primary-age childrenRussian Federation: 7.04% of GDP, 4.94% of primary-age childrenRwanda: 5.13% of GDP, 0.97% of primary-age childrenSaudi Arabia: 5.69% of GDP, 0.527% of primary-age childrenSudan: 2.85% of GDP, 43.8% of primary-age childrenSenegal: 4.32% of GDP, 24.5% of primary-age childrenSingapore: 4.49% of GDP, 0.212% of primary-age childrenSolomon Islands: 5.36% of GDP, 30.1% of primary-age childrenSierra Leone: 4.72% of GDP, 0.888% of primary-age childrenEl Salvador: 9.29% of GDP, 8.66% of primary-age childrenSan Marino: 6.61% of GDP, 6.13% of primary-age childrenSerbia: 8.03% of GDP, 3.33% of primary-age childrenSao Tome and Principe: 5.77% of GDP, 2.88% of primary-age childrenSuriname: 5.41% of GDP, 16.2% of primary-age childrenSlovak Republic: 7.35% of GDP, 1.06% of primary-age childrenSlovenia: 9.88% of GDP, 1.45% of primary-age childrenSweden: 11.2% of GDP, 0.57% of primary-age childrenEswatini: 7.5% of GDP, 3.83% of primary-age childrenSeychelles: 4.48% of GDP, 6.8% of primary-age childrenSyrian Arab Republic: 2.71% of GDP, 21.8% of primary-age childrenChad: 5% of GDP, 24.8% of primary-age childrenTogo: 6.11% of GDP, 0.639% of primary-age childrenThailand: 4.54% of GDP, 0.817% of primary-age childrenTajikistan: 7.44% of GDP, 4.15% of primary-age childrenTurkmenistan: 5.5% of GDP, 4.31% of primary-age childrenTimor-Leste: 9.6% of GDP, 6.88% of primary-age childrenTonga: 7.36% of GDP, 2.28% of primary-age childrenTrinidad and Tobago: 7.53% of GDP, 7.16% of primary-age childrenTunisia: 7.99% of GDP, 1.09% of primary-age childrenTurkiye: 4.28% of GDP, 0.603% of primary-age childrenTuvalu: 27.1% of GDP, 0.537% of primary-age childrenTanzania: 3.05% of GDP, 16.4% of primary-age childrenUganda: 4.24% of GDP, 4.12% of primary-age childrenUkraine: 8.2% of GDP, 12.9% of primary-age childrenUruguay: 9.02% of GDP, 0.0355% of primary-age childrenUnited States: 16.7% of GDP, 3.98% of primary-age childrenUzbekistan: 6.74% of GDP, 0.655% of primary-age childrenSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 4.44% of GDP, 0.59% of primary-age childrenViet Nam: 4.56% of GDP, 1.73% of primary-age childrenVanuatu: 4.12% of GDP, 2.53% of primary-age childrenSamoa: 6.78% of GDP, 1.81% of primary-age childrenSouth Africa: 8.91% of GDP, 6.06% of primary-age childrenZambia: 5.98% of GDP, 3.51% of primary-age childrenZimbabwe: 2.93% of GDP, 10.5% of primary-age childrenAGOBRNGNQIDNINDLBRNRUSDNTUVUSA

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.1980.008177
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.3241.1e-5177
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1330.079177
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2220.003177

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 177 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.066 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.163 (without LBR) to -0.098 (without TUV). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: TUV (+0.035).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific28-0.14
Europe & Central Asia50-0.31
Latin America & Caribbean29-0.21
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan18-0.48
Sub-Saharan Africa44+0.00

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third59-0.10
Middle third59-0.25
Richest third59-0.46

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians106-0.08
Muslims44-0.30

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.08
Never a European colony19+0.25
Spain20-0.31
United Kingdom59-0.18

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.322 after dropping 23 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 25years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.052, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose health spending moved did not tend to see their out of school, primary move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.133for comparison
Within countries-0.016each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.052q = 0.563 · 176 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.008q = 0.853

2,984 country-years (one country in one year), 176 countries, 2000–2024, about 17 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 14% for Health spending, 19% for Out of school, primary. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Out of school, primary trails Health spending →lag -10: r = 0.042 (n = 2,057)lag -9: r = 0.046 (n = 2,143)lag -8: r = 0.032 (n = 2,244)lag -7: r = 0.053 (n = 2,325)lag -6: r = 0.074 (n = 2,444)lag -5: r = 0.074 (n = 2,537)lag -4: r = 0.064 (n = 2,636)lag -3: r = 0.047 (n = 2,740)lag -2: r = 0.029 (n = 2,839)lag -1: r = 0.036 (n = 2,930)lag +0: r = 0.052 (n = 2,984)lag +1: r = 0.052 (n = 2,991)lag +2: r = 0.071 (n = 2,896)lag +3: r = 0.084 (n = 2,786)lag +4: r = 0.094 (n = 2,672)lag +5: r = 0.083 (n = 2,553)lag +6: r = 0.057 (n = 2,434)lag +7: r = 0.055 (n = 2,308)lag +8: r = 0.048 (n = 2,177)lag +9: r = 0.050 (n = 2,045)lag +10: r = 0.073 (n = 1,925)

Same year (lag 0): +0.052. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of GDP
% of primary-age children		Years
Tuvalu TUV27.1%0.537%2023, 2024
Naoero NRU18.2%6.6%2023, 2025
United States USA16.7%3.98%2023, 2022
Marshall Islands MHL13.4%1.48%2023, 2024
Liberia LBR13%38.3%2023, 2022
Micronesia, Fed. Sts. FSM12.9%23.1%2023, 2024
Lesotho LSO12.6%32.2%2023, 2024
Germany DEU12.3%0.274%2024
Austria AUT11.8%1.43%2024
Switzerland CHE11.7%0.143%2023, 2024
France FRA11.5%0.204%2024
Canada CAN11.3%4.99%2024, 2023
Sweden SWE11.2%0.57%2024
United Kingdom GBR11.1%0.0698%2024, 2023
Kiribati KIR10.9%8.71%2023, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Health spending

Current health expenditure (% of GDP)

World Health Organization Global Health Expenditure Database · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Out of school, primary

Children out of school (% of primary school age)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Children of primary-school age not enrolled at any level. Treated as measuring the same thing as gross primary enrolment, which is on the site. They are two ways of asking whether children are in school, so their agreement is not a finding.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 13,797 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Health spending and Out of school, primary

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Health spending changes Out of school, primary, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Health spending or Out of school, primary