Do Health coverage index and Refugees originating go together across countries?

Across 184 countries the link before adjusting for anything is r = -0.16, on a scale from -1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). A version that uses only each country's rank gives -0.50.

Does the link hold within countries over time, not just across countries?

Comparing each country only with itself across 2000-2023, and setting aside what happened worldwide in each year, the link is -0.068 (190 countries, 4,372 country-years). Using year-to-year changes, it is -0.018.

Does Health coverage index cause Refugees originating?

This analysis cannot answer that. It shows only that the two go together. A link between two country measures, adjusted or not, does not show that either one changes the other. Country figures also say nothing about individual people.

Health coverage index vs. Refugees originating

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 184 countries, Health coverage index and Refugees originating rise and fall together at r = -0.16 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) flips the link to +0.13 (q = 0.034, allowing for the many pairs tested). The first figure pointed the other way only as richer and poorer countries differ. Caution: correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed.

Comparing countries across the middle half of refugees originating, 2.33 to 147 per 100,000 people, health coverage index is worse by 0.139 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap reverses, to 0.0586 points the other way.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.155p = 0.035 · 184 countries

After adjusting for national income+0.129p = 0.082 · likely range [-0.02, +0.27]

p, allowing for regions0.223standard error 0.095 · 7 regions

Check for luck (q)0.034across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Health coverage index · index, 0 to 100link with income +0.88 · proxy

Refugees originating · per 100,000 peoplelink with income -0.49 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

Method	r	p	Countries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted	-0.155	0.035	184
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted	-0.497	6.9e-13	184
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income	+0.129	0.082	184
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income	-0.192	0.009	184

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 184 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.027 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.033 (without SYR) to +0.150 (without AFG). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SYR (-0.096).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.

correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed
sign flips once outliers are trimmed
direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

	n	r
East Asia & Pacific	29	-0.14
Europe & Central Asia	48	+0.12
Latin America & Caribbean	31	-0.14
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan	22	+0.21
Sub-Saharan Africa	46	+0.00

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

	n	r
Poorest third	62	+0.17
Middle third	61	+0.12
Richest third	61	-0.19

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

	n	r
Christians	107	+0.12
Muslims	49	+0.24

By last european coloniser

	n	r
France	25	+0.53
Never a European colony	21	-0.23
Spain	20	+0.23
United Kingdom	63	-0.20

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.116 after dropping 28 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 24years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.068, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose health coverage index moved did not tend to see their refugees originating move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.129for comparison

Within countries-0.047each country vs itself

…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.068q = 0.239 · 190 countries

Year-on-year changes-0.018q = 0.319

Read with care.

Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

4,372 country-years (one country in one year), 190 countries, 2000–2023, about 23 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 40% for Health coverage index, 8% for Refugees originating. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

Same year (lag 0): -0.068. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.15 at lag -8) is higher than the same-year one by 0.08. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data

	index, 0 to 100	per 100,000 people	Years
Canada CAN	92	0.778	2023, 2024
Iceland ISL	90	0	2023, 2024
New Zealand NZL	89	0.997	2023, 2024
Norway NOR	89	0.395	2023, 2024
Australia AUS	89	0.116	2023, 2024
United States USA	88	1.16	2023, 2024
Singapore SGP	88	0.772	2023, 2024
Korea, Rep. KOR	88	0.275	2023, 2024
United Kingdom GBR	88	0.603	2023, 2024
Germany DEU	87	0.412	2023, 2024
Switzerland CHE	87	0.056	2023, 2024
Japan JPN	86	0.0444	2023, 2024
Finland FIN	86	0.089	2023, 2024
Belgium BEL	86	0.792	2023, 2024
Uruguay URY	85	3.87	2023, 2024

World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory
UNHCR Refugee Data Finder; rate per population from Our World in Data

Sources

Health coverage index

Universal health coverage service coverage index

World Health Organization · via Our World in Data · CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 · updated annual

Fourteen "tracer" measures of basic health services, combined by WHO into one index. They include vaccination, care during pregnancy, treatment of tuberculosis and HIV, and hospital beds and staff. Several of those measures are on the site on their own. So a link with any of them is partly the index matching a part of itself.

Refugees originating

Refugees originating from the country, per 100,000 people

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

People recognised as refugees abroad, compared with the population of the country they left. It is zero for most of the world and in the thousands for a dozen countries at war. So it is put on a log scale (which squeezes very large values together) wherever it is used for adjusting, and its links lean on those few countries. The "leave one out" check shows by how much. It has a "better" direction and sits under governance. But it is an outcome of governance, not a measure of it, so it is kept out of the governance score.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2023–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Health coverage index and Refugees originating

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Health coverage index changes Refugees originating, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.