placestats

Government expense vs. Women's political empowerment

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 136 countries, Government expense and Women's political empowerment rise and fall together at r = +0.51 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.34, which could easily be chance (q = 0.16, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of women's political empowerment, 0.658 to 0.878 points, government expense is 7.26% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 5.12% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.510p = 2.4e-10 · 136 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.337p = 6.5e-5 · likely range [+0.18, +0.48]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.061 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.157across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Government expense · % of GDPlink with income +0.44 · moderate
Women's political empowerment · index (0-1)link with income +0.54 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Government expense · % of GDP →Women's political empowerment · index (0-1) →3.77%65.6%0.0280.954Afghanistan: 39.2% of GDP, 0.028 index (0-1)Angola: 14.6% of GDP, 0.77 index (0-1)Albania: 25.4% of GDP, 0.893 index (0-1)United Arab Emirates: 3.77% of GDP, 0.614 index (0-1)Argentina: 21% of GDP, 0.832 index (0-1)Armenia: 20.9% of GDP, 0.875 index (0-1)Australia: 27.6% of GDP, 0.906 index (0-1)Austria: 46% of GDP, 0.905 index (0-1)Azerbaijan: 23% of GDP, 0.649 index (0-1)Burundi: 12.3% of GDP, 0.653 index (0-1)Belgium: 39.7% of GDP, 0.952 index (0-1)Burkina Faso: 19.6% of GDP, 0.602 index (0-1)Bangladesh: 8.32% of GDP, 0.537 index (0-1)Bulgaria: 35.8% of GDP, 0.907 index (0-1)Bahrain: 26.1% of GDP, 0.568 index (0-1)Bosnia and Herzegovina: 35.3% of GDP, 0.821 index (0-1)Belarus: 28.5% of GDP, 0.657 index (0-1)Brazil: 32.4% of GDP, 0.818 index (0-1)Barbados: 28.8% of GDP, 0.895 index (0-1)Bhutan: 24.1% of GDP, 0.675 index (0-1)Botswana: 26.5% of GDP, 0.699 index (0-1)Central African Republic: 11.7% of GDP, 0.556 index (0-1)Canada: 19.1% of GDP, 0.872 index (0-1)Switzerland: 16.1% of GDP, 0.93 index (0-1)Chile: 24.6% of GDP, 0.913 index (0-1)Cote d'Ivoire: 17.9% of GDP, 0.696 index (0-1)Cameroon: 12.4% of GDP, 0.76 index (0-1)Congo, Dem. Rep.: 12.4% of GDP, 0.55 index (0-1)Congo, Rep.: 16.1% of GDP, 0.466 index (0-1)Colombia: 33.3% of GDP, 0.777 index (0-1)Cabo Verde: 30.9% of GDP, 0.855 index (0-1)Costa Rica: 28.6% of GDP, 0.907 index (0-1)Cyprus: 38.5% of GDP, 0.856 index (0-1)Czechia: 34.4% of GDP, 0.93 index (0-1)Germany: 31.2% of GDP, 0.942 index (0-1)Denmark: 33.3% of GDP, 0.954 index (0-1)Dominican Republic: 18.1% of GDP, 0.825 index (0-1)Ecuador: 30.4% of GDP, 0.79 index (0-1)Egypt, Arab Rep.: 30.2% of GDP, 0.547 index (0-1)Spain: 34% of GDP, 0.943 index (0-1)Estonia: 37.7% of GDP, 0.941 index (0-1)Ethiopia: 6.12% of GDP, 0.691 index (0-1)Finland: 44.9% of GDP, 0.932 index (0-1)Fiji: 27.8% of GDP, 0.644 index (0-1)France: 47.3% of GDP, 0.929 index (0-1)Gabon: 14.1% of GDP, 0.798 index (0-1)United Kingdom: 41.2% of GDP, 0.838 index (0-1)Georgia: 25.2% of GDP, 0.816 index (0-1)Ghana: 22.7% of GDP, 0.767 index (0-1)Guinea-Bissau: 15.5% of GDP, 0.502 index (0-1)Equatorial Guinea: 11% of GDP, 0.449 index (0-1)Greece: 47.3% of GDP, 0.896 index (0-1)Guatemala: 13.5% of GDP, 0.722 index (0-1)Honduras: 24.4% of GDP, 0.789 index (0-1)Croatia: 38.1% of GDP, 0.913 index (0-1)Hungary: 42.4% of GDP, 0.818 index (0-1)India: 13.7% of GDP, 0.658 index (0-1)Ireland: 19.2% of GDP, 0.927 index (0-1)Iraq: 27.6% of GDP, 0.555 index (0-1)Iceland: 32% of GDP, 0.883 index (0-1)Israel: 37.3% of GDP, 0.862 index (0-1)Italy: 47.3% of GDP, 0.929 index (0-1)Jamaica: 27.5% of GDP, 0.929 index (0-1)Jordan: 25.9% of GDP, 0.669 index (0-1)Japan: 20.1% of GDP, 0.844 index (0-1)Kazakhstan: 17.4% of GDP, 0.682 index (0-1)Kenya: 27.8% of GDP, 0.804 index (0-1)Kyrgyz Republic: 23.7% of GDP, 0.733 index (0-1)Cambodia: 12.9% of GDP, 0.534 index (0-1)Korea, Rep.: 28.3% of GDP, 0.878 index (0-1)Lao PDR: 10.3% of GDP, 0.508 index (0-1)Lebanon: 6.3% of GDP, 0.608 index (0-1)Sri Lanka: 18% of GDP, 0.742 index (0-1)Lesotho: 40.2% of GDP, 0.809 index (0-1)Lithuania: 33.9% of GDP, 0.926 index (0-1)Luxembourg: 42.2% of GDP, 0.896 index (0-1)Latvia: 34.2% of GDP, 0.95 index (0-1)Morocco: 26.6% of GDP, 0.712 index (0-1)Moldova: 34.5% of GDP, 0.898 index (0-1)Madagascar: 11% of GDP, 0.704 index (0-1)Maldives: 29.5% of GDP, 0.532 index (0-1)Mexico: 22.5% of GDP, 0.801 index (0-1)North Macedonia: 33.4% of GDP, 0.824 index (0-1)Mali: 12.2% of GDP, 0.706 index (0-1)Malta: 33.7% of GDP, 0.917 index (0-1)Myanmar: 13.8% of GDP, 0.33 index (0-1)Mongolia: 31.7% of GDP, 0.806 index (0-1)Mozambique: 26% of GDP, 0.725 index (0-1)Mauritius: 29.1% of GDP, 0.814 index (0-1)Malawi: 20.2% of GDP, 0.755 index (0-1)Malaysia: 17% of GDP, 0.772 index (0-1)Namibia: 36.2% of GDP, 0.855 index (0-1)Nicaragua: 16.3% of GDP, 0.531 index (0-1)Netherlands: 40% of GDP, 0.903 index (0-1)Norway: 34.5% of GDP, 0.926 index (0-1)Nepal: 19.4% of GDP, 0.792 index (0-1)New Zealand: 35.5% of GDP, 0.937 index (0-1)Panama: 17.1% of GDP, 0.742 index (0-1)Peru: 22.8% of GDP, 0.775 index (0-1)Philippines: 16.9% of GDP, 0.81 index (0-1)Papua New Guinea: 20.3% of GDP, 0.48 index (0-1)Poland: 39.1% of GDP, 0.878 index (0-1)Portugal: 37.2% of GDP, 0.811 index (0-1)Paraguay: 18.9% of GDP, 0.669 index (0-1)Romania: 37.3% of GDP, 0.872 index (0-1)Russian Federation: 30% of GDP, 0.546 index (0-1)Rwanda: 18% of GDP, 0.626 index (0-1)Saudi Arabia: 24.2% of GDP, 0.347 index (0-1)Sudan: 9.73% of GDP, 0.219 index (0-1)Senegal: 23.6% of GDP, 0.855 index (0-1)Singapore: 17.1% of GDP, 0.785 index (0-1)Solomon Islands: 28.9% of GDP, 0.675 index (0-1)El Salvador: 27.9% of GDP, 0.587 index (0-1)Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.35% of GDP, 0.337 index (0-1)Serbia: 35.5% of GDP, 0.864 index (0-1)Slovak Republic: 39.8% of GDP, 0.878 index (0-1)Slovenia: 42.9% of GDP, 0.94 index (0-1)Sweden: 32.5% of GDP, 0.923 index (0-1)Eswatini: 24.6% of GDP, 0.391 index (0-1)Togo: 16% of GDP, 0.692 index (0-1)Thailand: 20.7% of GDP, 0.688 index (0-1)Tajikistan: 11% of GDP, 0.431 index (0-1)Timor-Leste: 52.5% of GDP, 0.768 index (0-1)Trinidad and Tobago: 33.3% of GDP, 0.874 index (0-1)Tunisia: 33.8% of GDP, 0.765 index (0-1)Turkiye: 33% of GDP, 0.558 index (0-1)Tanzania: 16.3% of GDP, 0.834 index (0-1)Uganda: 16.6% of GDP, 0.636 index (0-1)Ukraine: 65.6% of GDP, 0.888 index (0-1)Uruguay: 36.5% of GDP, 0.875 index (0-1)United States: 24.4% of GDP, 0.829 index (0-1)Uzbekistan: 22.3% of GDP, 0.643 index (0-1)Vanuatu: 26.6% of GDP, 0.715 index (0-1)South Africa: 33.4% of GDP, 0.83 index (0-1)Zambia: 25.1% of GDP, 0.791 index (0-1)Zimbabwe: 11% of GDP, 0.727 index (0-1)AFGCHEETHFRAIRLITAMMRSDNSOMTLSUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5102.4e-10136
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.6217.0e-16136
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3376.5e-5136
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4456.5e-8136

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 136 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.173 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.310 (without ARE) to +0.441 (without AFG). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: AFG (+0.104).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific17+0.71
Europe & Central Asia46+0.40
Latin America & Caribbean19+0.43
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12+0.11
Sub-Saharan Africa34+0.46

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third46+0.24
Middle third45+0.32
Richest third45+0.49

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians90+0.34
Muslims28+0.00

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France14+0.41
Never a European colony16-0.41
Spain18+0.47
United Kingdom40+0.49

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.439 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.032, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose government expense moved did not tend to see their women's political empowerment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.337for comparison
Within countries-0.022each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.032q = 0.731 · 141 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.035q = 0.441
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,398 country-years (one country in one year), 141 countries, 1990–2024, about 24 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 10% for Government expense, 61% for Women's political empowerment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Women's political empowerment trails Government expense →lag -10: r = 0.054 (n = 2,638)lag -9: r = 0.025 (n = 2,726)lag -8: r = 0.014 (n = 2,813)lag -7: r = 0.002 (n = 2,894)lag -6: r = 0.009 (n = 2,971)lag -5: r = 0.010 (n = 3,050)lag -4: r = -0.001 (n = 3,124)lag -3: r = -0.010 (n = 3,194)lag -2: r = -0.014 (n = 3,264)lag -1: r = -0.017 (n = 3,333)lag +0: r = -0.032 (n = 3,398)lag +1: r = -0.048 (n = 3,399)lag +2: r = -0.049 (n = 3,397)lag +3: r = -0.039 (n = 3,312)lag +4: r = -0.036 (n = 3,207)lag +5: r = -0.026 (n = 3,085)lag +6: r = 0.003 (n = 2,963)lag +7: r = 0.028 (n = 2,830)lag +8: r = 0.035 (n = 2,690)lag +9: r = 0.051 (n = 2,560)lag +10: r = 0.067 (n = 2,434)

Same year (lag 0): -0.032. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of GDP
index (0-1)		Years
Ukraine UKR65.6%0.8882023, 2025
Timor-Leste TLS52.5%0.7682022, 2025
Greece GRC47.3%0.8962023, 2025
Italy ITA47.3%0.9292023, 2025
France FRA47.3%0.9292023, 2025
Austria AUT46%0.9052023, 2025
Finland FIN44.9%0.9322023, 2025
Slovenia SVN42.9%0.942023, 2025
Hungary HUN42.4%0.8182022, 2025
Luxembourg LUX42.2%0.8962023, 2025
United Kingdom GBR41.2%0.8382023, 2025
Lesotho LSO40.2%0.8092022, 2025
Netherlands NLD40%0.9032023, 2025
Slovak Republic SVK39.8%0.8782022, 2025
Belgium BEL39.7%0.9522022, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project

Sources

Government expense

Government expense (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Total central government spending, as a share of GDP: buying, payments to people, subsidies and interest together. From the IMF's Government Finance Statistics. It is the fuller measure of government size, but it covers fewer countries. It counts central government only, so a country with large state and local budgets looks low. About forty fewer countries report it than report government consumption. No "better" direction is set.

Women's political empowerment

Women's political empowerment index

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Women's civil liberties, their part in civic groups, and their political representation. It is built from its own set of questions, not from the parts of the democracy indices, so it is not tagged as measuring the same thing. Still, read its links with them carefully. Whether women take part in politics is partly built into whether real political participation exists at all. So a strong link with general democracy measures is closer to definitional (true by how the terms are defined) than to a finding about the world.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Government expense and Women's political empowerment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Government expense changes Women's political empowerment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Government expense or Women's political empowerment