placestats

Government expense vs. Suicide rate

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 145 countries, Government expense and Suicide rate rise and fall together at r = +0.37 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.33, q = 0.029, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of government expense, 18% to 33.9% of GDP, suicide rate is worse by 3.09 per 100,000 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2.92 per 100,000.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.371p = 4.4e-6 · 145 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.332p = 4.8e-5 · likely range [+0.18, +0.47]
p, allowing for regions0.002standard error 0.062 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.029across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Government expense · % of GDPlink with income +0.44 · moderate
Suicide rate · per 100,000link with income +0.23 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Government expense · % of GDP →Suicide rate · per 100,000 →3.77%83.7%0.4128.7Afghanistan: 39.2% of GDP, 3.6 per 100,000Angola: 14.6% of GDP, 8.11 per 100,000Albania: 25.4% of GDP, 2.75 per 100,000United Arab Emirates: 3.77% of GDP, 1.71 per 100,000Argentina: 21% of GDP, 7.94 per 100,000Armenia: 20.9% of GDP, 2.46 per 100,000Australia: 27.6% of GDP, 13.1 per 100,000Austria: 46% of GDP, 14.5 per 100,000Azerbaijan: 23% of GDP, 1.56 per 100,000Burundi: 12.3% of GDP, 7.65 per 100,000Belgium: 39.7% of GDP, 18.4 per 100,000Burkina Faso: 19.6% of GDP, 8.5 per 100,000Bangladesh: 8.32% of GDP, 2.81 per 100,000Bulgaria: 35.8% of GDP, 9.51 per 100,000Bahrain: 26.1% of GDP, 4.66 per 100,000Bahamas, The: 20.3% of GDP, 3.25 per 100,000Bosnia and Herzegovina: 35.3% of GDP, 8.97 per 100,000Belarus: 28.5% of GDP, 15.6 per 100,000Belize: 22.3% of GDP, 4.18 per 100,000Brazil: 32.4% of GDP, 7.59 per 100,000Barbados: 28.8% of GDP, 3.5 per 100,000Bhutan: 24.1% of GDP, 4.9 per 100,000Botswana: 26.5% of GDP, 8.35 per 100,000Central African Republic: 11.7% of GDP, 9.19 per 100,000Canada: 19.1% of GDP, 9.44 per 100,000Switzerland: 16.1% of GDP, 14 per 100,000Chile: 24.6% of GDP, 7.69 per 100,000Cote d'Ivoire: 17.9% of GDP, 7.39 per 100,000Cameroon: 12.4% of GDP, 8.5 per 100,000Congo, Dem. Rep.: 12.4% of GDP, 8.77 per 100,000Congo, Rep.: 16.1% of GDP, 6.71 per 100,000Colombia: 33.3% of GDP, 4.96 per 100,000Cabo Verde: 30.9% of GDP, 14.9 per 100,000Costa Rica: 28.6% of GDP, 8.06 per 100,000Cyprus: 38.5% of GDP, 3.02 per 100,000Czechia: 34.4% of GDP, 13.3 per 100,000Germany: 31.2% of GDP, 12.9 per 100,000Denmark: 33.3% of GDP, 10.5 per 100,000Dominican Republic: 18.1% of GDP, 4.2 per 100,000Ecuador: 30.4% of GDP, 7.56 per 100,000Egypt, Arab Rep.: 30.2% of GDP, 0.63 per 100,000Spain: 34% of GDP, 8.72 per 100,000Estonia: 37.7% of GDP, 14.9 per 100,000Ethiopia: 6.12% of GDP, 6.07 per 100,000Finland: 44.9% of GDP, 14.6 per 100,000Fiji: 27.8% of GDP, 8.27 per 100,000France: 47.3% of GDP, 16.6 per 100,000Micronesia, Fed. Sts.: 23.4% of GDP, 19.8 per 100,000Gabon: 14.1% of GDP, 7.3 per 100,000United Kingdom: 41.2% of GDP, 9.55 per 100,000Georgia: 25.2% of GDP, 5.1 per 100,000Ghana: 22.7% of GDP, 5.32 per 100,000Guinea-Bissau: 15.5% of GDP, 7.67 per 100,000Equatorial Guinea: 11% of GDP, 7.03 per 100,000Greece: 47.3% of GDP, 4.68 per 100,000Guatemala: 13.5% of GDP, 4.94 per 100,000Honduras: 24.4% of GDP, 2.97 per 100,000Croatia: 38.1% of GDP, 15.7 per 100,000Hungary: 42.4% of GDP, 16.4 per 100,000India: 13.7% of GDP, 12.6 per 100,000Ireland: 19.2% of GDP, 8.55 per 100,000Iraq: 27.6% of GDP, 2.97 per 100,000Iceland: 32% of GDP, 11.9 per 100,000Israel: 37.3% of GDP, 4.37 per 100,000Italy: 47.3% of GDP, 6.99 per 100,000Jamaica: 27.5% of GDP, 1.69 per 100,000Jordan: 25.9% of GDP, 0.6 per 100,000Japan: 20.1% of GDP, 17.4 per 100,000Kazakhstan: 17.4% of GDP, 14.6 per 100,000Kenya: 27.8% of GDP, 4.58 per 100,000Kyrgyz Republic: 23.7% of GDP, 6.8 per 100,000Cambodia: 12.9% of GDP, 4.5 per 100,000Kiribati: 83.7% of GDP, 17.5 per 100,000Korea, Rep.: 28.3% of GDP, 27.5 per 100,000Lao PDR: 10.3% of GDP, 4.58 per 100,000Lebanon: 6.3% of GDP, 0.7 per 100,000St. Lucia: 17.6% of GDP, 5.27 per 100,000Sri Lanka: 18% of GDP, 14.7 per 100,000Lesotho: 40.2% of GDP, 28.7 per 100,000Lithuania: 33.9% of GDP, 22.1 per 100,000Luxembourg: 42.2% of GDP, 8.22 per 100,000Latvia: 34.2% of GDP, 15.2 per 100,000Morocco: 26.6% of GDP, 2.91 per 100,000Moldova: 34.5% of GDP, 14.1 per 100,000Madagascar: 11% of GDP, 6.09 per 100,000Maldives: 29.5% of GDP, 1.47 per 100,000Mexico: 22.5% of GDP, 6.95 per 100,000North Macedonia: 33.4% of GDP, 5.78 per 100,000Mali: 12.2% of GDP, 4.16 per 100,000Malta: 33.7% of GDP, 6.47 per 100,000Myanmar: 13.8% of GDP, 2.89 per 100,000Mongolia: 31.7% of GDP, 18.5 per 100,000Mozambique: 26% of GDP, 10.6 per 100,000Mauritius: 29.1% of GDP, 10.5 per 100,000Malawi: 20.2% of GDP, 7.57 per 100,000Malaysia: 17% of GDP, 5.65 per 100,000Namibia: 36.2% of GDP, 8.59 per 100,000Nicaragua: 16.3% of GDP, 4.24 per 100,000Netherlands: 40% of GDP, 11.5 per 100,000Norway: 34.5% of GDP, 13.2 per 100,000Nepal: 19.4% of GDP, 10.1 per 100,000New Zealand: 35.5% of GDP, 11.9 per 100,000Panama: 17.1% of GDP, 3.29 per 100,000Peru: 22.8% of GDP, 1.54 per 100,000Philippines: 16.9% of GDP, 3.49 per 100,000Papua New Guinea: 20.3% of GDP, 1.82 per 100,000Poland: 39.1% of GDP, 13.7 per 100,000Portugal: 37.2% of GDP, 11.5 per 100,000Paraguay: 18.9% of GDP, 6.36 per 100,000West Bank and Gaza: 26.2% of GDP, 0.65 per 100,000Romania: 37.3% of GDP, 9.62 per 100,000Russian Federation: 30% of GDP, 21.4 per 100,000Rwanda: 18% of GDP, 8.68 per 100,000Saudi Arabia: 24.2% of GDP, 0.95 per 100,000Sudan: 9.73% of GDP, 3.16 per 100,000Senegal: 23.6% of GDP, 6.76 per 100,000Singapore: 17.1% of GDP, 8.1 per 100,000Solomon Islands: 28.9% of GDP, 19.6 per 100,000El Salvador: 27.9% of GDP, 7.63 per 100,000Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.35% of GDP, 7.96 per 100,000Serbia: 35.5% of GDP, 15.1 per 100,000Slovak Republic: 39.8% of GDP, 9.91 per 100,000Slovenia: 42.9% of GDP, 18.9 per 100,000Sweden: 32.5% of GDP, 13.8 per 100,000Eswatini: 24.6% of GDP, 27.2 per 100,000Togo: 16% of GDP, 9.34 per 100,000Thailand: 20.7% of GDP, 16.6 per 100,000Tajikistan: 11% of GDP, 2.43 per 100,000Timor-Leste: 52.5% of GDP, 3.56 per 100,000Tonga: 34.7% of GDP, 4.73 per 100,000Trinidad and Tobago: 33.3% of GDP, 13.3 per 100,000Tunisia: 33.8% of GDP, 1.84 per 100,000Turkiye: 33% of GDP, 2.69 per 100,000Tanzania: 16.3% of GDP, 5.1 per 100,000Uganda: 16.6% of GDP, 5.5 per 100,000Ukraine: 65.6% of GDP, 21.2 per 100,000Uruguay: 36.5% of GDP, 24.8 per 100,000United States: 24.4% of GDP, 15.6 per 100,000Uzbekistan: 22.3% of GDP, 8.34 per 100,000St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 24.7% of GDP, 0.41 per 100,000Vanuatu: 26.6% of GDP, 15.7 per 100,000Samoa: 26.7% of GDP, 12 per 100,000South Africa: 33.4% of GDP, 22.3 per 100,000Zambia: 25.1% of GDP, 7.13 per 100,000Zimbabwe: 11% of GDP, 17.3 per 100,000AREBGDGRCKIRKORLBNLSOSWZTLSUKRZWE

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.3714.4e-6145
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.3646.8e-6145
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3324.8e-5145
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2910.000145

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 145 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.039 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.300 (without UKR) to +0.357 (without TLS). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: UKR (-0.032).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific21+0.33
Europe & Central Asia46+0.34
Latin America & Caribbean23+0.53
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan13+0.59
Sub-Saharan Africa34+0.50

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third49+0.34
Middle third48+0.40
Richest third48+0.23

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians98+0.37
Muslims29-0.08

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France14+0.07
Never a European colony16+0.03
Spain19+0.46
United Kingdom47+0.30

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.244 after dropping 5 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 22years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.105, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose government expense moved did not tend to see their suicide rate move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.332for comparison
Within countries+0.014each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.105q = 0.142 · 149 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.036q = 0.414
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

2,589 country-years (one country in one year), 149 countries, 2000–2021, about 17 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 9% for Government expense, 9% for Suicide rate. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Suicide rate trails Government expense →lag -10: r = 0.019 (n = 1,769)lag -9: r = 0.047 (n = 1,883)lag -8: r = 0.024 (n = 1,996)lag -7: r = 0.018 (n = 2,099)lag -6: r = 0.013 (n = 2,201)lag -5: r = 0.017 (n = 2,305)lag -4: r = 0.027 (n = 2,405)lag -3: r = 0.028 (n = 2,511)lag -2: r = 0.050 (n = 2,611)lag -1: r = 0.080 (n = 2,611)lag +0: r = 0.105 (n = 2,589)lag +1: r = 0.015 (n = 2,551)lag +2: r = 0.010 (n = 2,511)lag +3: r = 0.012 (n = 2,453)lag +4: r = 0.012 (n = 2,382)lag +5: r = 0.012 (n = 2,321)lag +6: r = 0.008 (n = 2,260)lag +7: r = 0.006 (n = 2,187)lag +8: r = 0.008 (n = 2,120)lag +9: r = 0.003 (n = 2,056)lag +10: r = 0.059 (n = 1,990)

Same year (lag 0): +0.105. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of GDP
per 100,000		Years
Kiribati KIR83.7%17.52023, 2021
Ukraine UKR65.6%21.22023, 2021
Timor-Leste TLS52.5%3.562022, 2021
Greece GRC47.3%4.682023, 2021
Italy ITA47.3%6.992023, 2021
France FRA47.3%16.62023, 2021
Austria AUT46%14.52023, 2021
Finland FIN44.9%14.62023, 2021
Slovenia SVN42.9%18.92023, 2021
Hungary HUN42.4%16.42022, 2021
Luxembourg LUX42.2%8.222023, 2021
United Kingdom GBR41.2%9.552023, 2021
Lesotho LSO40.2%28.72022, 2021
Netherlands NLD40%11.52023, 2021
Slovak Republic SVK39.8%9.912022, 2021

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Government expense

Government expense (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Total central government spending, as a share of GDP: buying, payments to people, subsidies and interest together. From the IMF's Government Finance Statistics. It is the fuller measure of government size, but it covers fewer countries. It counts central government only, so a country with large state and local budgets looks low. About forty fewer countries report it than report government consumption. No "better" direction is set.

Suicide rate

Suicide mortality rate (per 100,000 population)

World Health Organization Global Health Observatory · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Estimates from a statistical model. Differences between countries partly reflect how deaths are registered, and how deaths of unclear intent are recorded. Those recording habits are linked to both religion and income.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Government expense and Suicide rate

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Government expense changes Suicide rate, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Government expense or Suicide rate