placestats

Government expense vs. Participatory democracy

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 136 countries, Government expense and Participatory democracy rise and fall together at r = +0.54 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.38, which could easily be chance (q = 0.11, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of participatory democracy, 0.164 to 0.512 points, government expense is 10.7% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 8% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.540p = 1.1e-11 · 136 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.377p = 6.5e-6 · likely range [+0.22, +0.51]
p, allowing for regions0.022standard error 0.123 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.106across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Government expense · % of GDPlink with income +0.44 · moderate
Participatory democracy · index (0-1)link with income +0.47 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Government expense · % of GDP →Participatory democracy · index (0-1) →3.77%65.6%0.0260.785Afghanistan: 39.2% of GDP, 0.051 index (0-1)Angola: 14.6% of GDP, 0.103 index (0-1)Albania: 25.4% of GDP, 0.29 index (0-1)United Arab Emirates: 3.77% of GDP, 0.031 index (0-1)Argentina: 21% of GDP, 0.429 index (0-1)Armenia: 20.9% of GDP, 0.319 index (0-1)Australia: 27.6% of GDP, 0.648 index (0-1)Austria: 46% of GDP, 0.582 index (0-1)Azerbaijan: 23% of GDP, 0.043 index (0-1)Burundi: 12.3% of GDP, 0.142 index (0-1)Belgium: 39.7% of GDP, 0.633 index (0-1)Burkina Faso: 19.6% of GDP, 0.104 index (0-1)Bangladesh: 8.32% of GDP, 0.099 index (0-1)Bulgaria: 35.8% of GDP, 0.397 index (0-1)Bahrain: 26.1% of GDP, 0.054 index (0-1)Bosnia and Herzegovina: 35.3% of GDP, 0.298 index (0-1)Belarus: 28.5% of GDP, 0.054 index (0-1)Brazil: 32.4% of GDP, 0.528 index (0-1)Barbados: 28.8% of GDP, 0.347 index (0-1)Bhutan: 24.1% of GDP, 0.349 index (0-1)Botswana: 26.5% of GDP, 0.369 index (0-1)Central African Republic: 11.7% of GDP, 0.13 index (0-1)Canada: 19.1% of GDP, 0.589 index (0-1)Switzerland: 16.1% of GDP, 0.785 index (0-1)Chile: 24.6% of GDP, 0.574 index (0-1)Cote d'Ivoire: 17.9% of GDP, 0.262 index (0-1)Cameroon: 12.4% of GDP, 0.093 index (0-1)Congo, Dem. Rep.: 12.4% of GDP, 0.2 index (0-1)Congo, Rep.: 16.1% of GDP, 0.188 index (0-1)Colombia: 33.3% of GDP, 0.467 index (0-1)Cabo Verde: 30.9% of GDP, 0.458 index (0-1)Costa Rica: 28.6% of GDP, 0.606 index (0-1)Cyprus: 38.5% of GDP, 0.49 index (0-1)Czechia: 34.4% of GDP, 0.562 index (0-1)Germany: 31.2% of GDP, 0.593 index (0-1)Denmark: 33.3% of GDP, 0.7 index (0-1)Dominican Republic: 18.1% of GDP, 0.475 index (0-1)Ecuador: 30.4% of GDP, 0.462 index (0-1)Egypt, Arab Rep.: 30.2% of GDP, 0.076 index (0-1)Spain: 34% of GDP, 0.572 index (0-1)Estonia: 37.7% of GDP, 0.621 index (0-1)Ethiopia: 6.12% of GDP, 0.128 index (0-1)Finland: 44.9% of GDP, 0.597 index (0-1)Fiji: 27.8% of GDP, 0.265 index (0-1)France: 47.3% of GDP, 0.597 index (0-1)Gabon: 14.1% of GDP, 0.24 index (0-1)United Kingdom: 41.2% of GDP, 0.533 index (0-1)Georgia: 25.2% of GDP, 0.236 index (0-1)Ghana: 22.7% of GDP, 0.361 index (0-1)Guinea-Bissau: 15.5% of GDP, 0.128 index (0-1)Equatorial Guinea: 11% of GDP, 0.041 index (0-1)Greece: 47.3% of GDP, 0.493 index (0-1)Guatemala: 13.5% of GDP, 0.421 index (0-1)Honduras: 24.4% of GDP, 0.32 index (0-1)Croatia: 38.1% of GDP, 0.459 index (0-1)Hungary: 42.4% of GDP, 0.268 index (0-1)India: 13.7% of GDP, 0.246 index (0-1)Ireland: 19.2% of GDP, 0.619 index (0-1)Iraq: 27.6% of GDP, 0.224 index (0-1)Iceland: 32% of GDP, 0.565 index (0-1)Israel: 37.3% of GDP, 0.455 index (0-1)Italy: 47.3% of GDP, 0.569 index (0-1)Jamaica: 27.5% of GDP, 0.524 index (0-1)Jordan: 25.9% of GDP, 0.132 index (0-1)Japan: 20.1% of GDP, 0.526 index (0-1)Kazakhstan: 17.4% of GDP, 0.107 index (0-1)Kenya: 27.8% of GDP, 0.335 index (0-1)Kyrgyz Republic: 23.7% of GDP, 0.163 index (0-1)Cambodia: 12.9% of GDP, 0.06 index (0-1)Korea, Rep.: 28.3% of GDP, 0.551 index (0-1)Lao PDR: 10.3% of GDP, 0.118 index (0-1)Lebanon: 6.3% of GDP, 0.222 index (0-1)Sri Lanka: 18% of GDP, 0.52 index (0-1)Lesotho: 40.2% of GDP, 0.404 index (0-1)Lithuania: 33.9% of GDP, 0.56 index (0-1)Luxembourg: 42.2% of GDP, 0.556 index (0-1)Latvia: 34.2% of GDP, 0.595 index (0-1)Morocco: 26.6% of GDP, 0.151 index (0-1)Moldova: 34.5% of GDP, 0.389 index (0-1)Madagascar: 11% of GDP, 0.217 index (0-1)Maldives: 29.5% of GDP, 0.316 index (0-1)Mexico: 22.5% of GDP, 0.337 index (0-1)North Macedonia: 33.4% of GDP, 0.354 index (0-1)Mali: 12.2% of GDP, 0.164 index (0-1)Malta: 33.7% of GDP, 0.529 index (0-1)Myanmar: 13.8% of GDP, 0.041 index (0-1)Mongolia: 31.7% of GDP, 0.281 index (0-1)Mozambique: 26% of GDP, 0.201 index (0-1)Mauritius: 29.1% of GDP, 0.481 index (0-1)Malawi: 20.2% of GDP, 0.366 index (0-1)Malaysia: 17% of GDP, 0.303 index (0-1)Namibia: 36.2% of GDP, 0.349 index (0-1)Nicaragua: 16.3% of GDP, 0.098 index (0-1)Netherlands: 40% of GDP, 0.553 index (0-1)Norway: 34.5% of GDP, 0.638 index (0-1)Nepal: 19.4% of GDP, 0.435 index (0-1)New Zealand: 35.5% of GDP, 0.581 index (0-1)Panama: 17.1% of GDP, 0.441 index (0-1)Peru: 22.8% of GDP, 0.448 index (0-1)Philippines: 16.9% of GDP, 0.261 index (0-1)Papua New Guinea: 20.3% of GDP, 0.28 index (0-1)Poland: 39.1% of GDP, 0.519 index (0-1)Portugal: 37.2% of GDP, 0.529 index (0-1)Paraguay: 18.9% of GDP, 0.342 index (0-1)Romania: 37.3% of GDP, 0.416 index (0-1)Russian Federation: 30% of GDP, 0.124 index (0-1)Rwanda: 18% of GDP, 0.13 index (0-1)Saudi Arabia: 24.2% of GDP, 0.026 index (0-1)Sudan: 9.73% of GDP, 0.051 index (0-1)Senegal: 23.6% of GDP, 0.402 index (0-1)Singapore: 17.1% of GDP, 0.121 index (0-1)Solomon Islands: 28.9% of GDP, 0.429 index (0-1)El Salvador: 27.9% of GDP, 0.159 index (0-1)Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.35% of GDP, 0.095 index (0-1)Serbia: 35.5% of GDP, 0.217 index (0-1)Slovak Republic: 39.8% of GDP, 0.508 index (0-1)Slovenia: 42.9% of GDP, 0.506 index (0-1)Sweden: 32.5% of GDP, 0.635 index (0-1)Eswatini: 24.6% of GDP, 0.11 index (0-1)Togo: 16% of GDP, 0.233 index (0-1)Thailand: 20.7% of GDP, 0.186 index (0-1)Tajikistan: 11% of GDP, 0.059 index (0-1)Timor-Leste: 52.5% of GDP, 0.462 index (0-1)Trinidad and Tobago: 33.3% of GDP, 0.505 index (0-1)Tunisia: 33.8% of GDP, 0.242 index (0-1)Turkiye: 33% of GDP, 0.165 index (0-1)Tanzania: 16.3% of GDP, 0.245 index (0-1)Uganda: 16.6% of GDP, 0.156 index (0-1)Ukraine: 65.6% of GDP, 0.252 index (0-1)Uruguay: 36.5% of GDP, 0.716 index (0-1)United States: 24.4% of GDP, 0.51 index (0-1)Uzbekistan: 22.3% of GDP, 0.082 index (0-1)Vanuatu: 26.6% of GDP, 0.323 index (0-1)South Africa: 33.4% of GDP, 0.47 index (0-1)Zambia: 25.1% of GDP, 0.348 index (0-1)Zimbabwe: 11% of GDP, 0.202 index (0-1)AFGARECANCHEFRAHUNIRLITASDNSOMUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5401.1e-11136
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5821.1e-13136
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3776.5e-6136
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4021.3e-6136

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 136 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.163 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.335 (without ARE) to +0.422 (without UKR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: UKR (+0.044).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific17+0.70
Europe & Central Asia46+0.21
Latin America & Caribbean19+0.44
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12+0.43
Sub-Saharan Africa34+0.73

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third46+0.60
Middle third45+0.10
Richest third45+0.43

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians90+0.24
Muslims28+0.25

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France14+0.40
Never a European colony16+0.01
Spain18+0.55
United Kingdom40+0.55

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.422 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.026, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose government expense moved did not tend to see their participatory democracy move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.377for comparison
Within countries+0.020each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.026q = 0.026 · 141 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.025q = 0.518
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,398 country-years (one country in one year), 141 countries, 1990–2024, about 24 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 7% for Government expense, 61% for Participatory democracy. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Participatory democracy trails Government expense →lag -10: r = 0.055 (n = 2,642)lag -9: r = 0.023 (n = 2,730)lag -8: r = 0.016 (n = 2,817)lag -7: r = 0.008 (n = 2,896)lag -6: r = 0.006 (n = 2,973)lag -5: r = 0.006 (n = 3,052)lag -4: r = 0.011 (n = 3,126)lag -3: r = 0.018 (n = 3,196)lag -2: r = 0.023 (n = 3,265)lag -1: r = 0.025 (n = 3,333)lag +0: r = 0.026 (n = 3,398)lag +1: r = 0.026 (n = 3,399)lag +2: r = 0.027 (n = 3,397)lag +3: r = 0.027 (n = 3,312)lag +4: r = 0.022 (n = 3,207)lag +5: r = 0.018 (n = 3,085)lag +6: r = 0.013 (n = 2,963)lag +7: r = 0.005 (n = 2,830)lag +8: r = -0.002 (n = 2,690)lag +9: r = -0.007 (n = 2,560)lag +10: r = -0.013 (n = 2,434)

Same year (lag 0): +0.026. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of GDP
index (0-1)		Years
Ukraine UKR65.6%0.2522023, 2025
Timor-Leste TLS52.5%0.4622022, 2025
Greece GRC47.3%0.4932023, 2025
Italy ITA47.3%0.5692023, 2025
France FRA47.3%0.5972023, 2025
Austria AUT46%0.5822023, 2025
Finland FIN44.9%0.5972023, 2025
Slovenia SVN42.9%0.5062023, 2025
Hungary HUN42.4%0.2682022, 2025
Luxembourg LUX42.2%0.5562023, 2025
United Kingdom GBR41.2%0.5332023, 2025
Lesotho LSO40.2%0.4042022, 2025
Netherlands NLD40%0.5532023, 2025
Slovak Republic SVK39.8%0.5082022, 2025
Belgium BEL39.7%0.6332022, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project

Sources

Government expense

Government expense (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Total central government spending, as a share of GDP: buying, payments to people, subsidies and interest together. From the IMF's Government Finance Statistics. It is the fuller measure of government size, but it covers fewer countries. It counts central government only, so a country with large state and local budgets looks low. About forty fewer countries report it than report government consumption. No "better" direction is set.

Participatory democracy

Participatory democracy index

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Electoral democracy plus direct participation: people's involvement in civic groups, referendums, and elected local and regional government.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Government expense and Participatory democracy

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Government expense changes Participatory democracy, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Government expense or Participatory democracy