placestats

Government expense vs. Male labor participation

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 144 countries, Government expense and Male labor participation rise and fall together at r = -0.36 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.37, q = 0.022, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of government expense, 17.9% to 33.8% of GDP, male labor participation is 4.17% of men 15+ lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.69% of men 15+.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.363p = 8.0e-6 · 144 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.368p = 6.3e-6 · likely range [-0.50, -0.22]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.063 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.022across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Government expense · % of GDPlink with income +0.44 · moderate
Male labor participation · % of men 15+link with income -0.06 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Government expense · % of GDP →Male labor participation · % of men 15+ →3.77%65.6%47.2%91.5%Afghanistan: 39.2% of GDP, 69.8% of men 15+Angola: 14.6% of GDP, 77.5% of men 15+Albania: 25.4% of GDP, 70.2% of men 15+United Arab Emirates: 3.77% of GDP, 91.5% of men 15+Argentina: 21% of GDP, 71.7% of men 15+Armenia: 20.9% of GDP, 69.5% of men 15+Australia: 27.6% of GDP, 70.7% of men 15+Austria: 46% of GDP, 65.4% of men 15+Azerbaijan: 23% of GDP, 66% of men 15+Burundi: 12.3% of GDP, 77% of men 15+Belgium: 39.7% of GDP, 59% of men 15+Burkina Faso: 19.6% of GDP, 76.1% of men 15+Bangladesh: 8.32% of GDP, 80.4% of men 15+Bulgaria: 35.8% of GDP, 62.4% of men 15+Bahrain: 26.1% of GDP, 85.9% of men 15+Bahamas, The: 20.3% of GDP, 77.2% of men 15+Bosnia and Herzegovina: 35.3% of GDP, 60% of men 15+Belarus: 28.5% of GDP, 69.9% of men 15+Belize: 22.3% of GDP, 71.6% of men 15+Brazil: 32.4% of GDP, 73.4% of men 15+Barbados: 28.8% of GDP, 68.7% of men 15+Bhutan: 24.1% of GDP, 71.8% of men 15+Botswana: 26.5% of GDP, 74% of men 15+Central African Republic: 11.7% of GDP, 82.8% of men 15+Canada: 19.1% of GDP, 68.9% of men 15+Switzerland: 16.1% of GDP, 71.4% of men 15+Chile: 24.6% of GDP, 71.9% of men 15+Cote d'Ivoire: 17.9% of GDP, 74.4% of men 15+Cameroon: 12.4% of GDP, 73.9% of men 15+Congo, Dem. Rep.: 12.4% of GDP, 66.8% of men 15+Congo, Rep.: 16.1% of GDP, 70.1% of men 15+Colombia: 33.3% of GDP, 75.7% of men 15+Cabo Verde: 30.9% of GDP, 63.4% of men 15+Costa Rica: 28.6% of GDP, 69.8% of men 15+Cyprus: 38.5% of GDP, 72.7% of men 15+Czechia: 34.4% of GDP, 67.5% of men 15+Germany: 31.2% of GDP, 66.1% of men 15+Denmark: 33.3% of GDP, 69.2% of men 15+Dominican Republic: 18.1% of GDP, 76.4% of men 15+Ecuador: 30.4% of GDP, 76.9% of men 15+Egypt, Arab Rep.: 30.2% of GDP, 70.5% of men 15+Spain: 34% of GDP, 62.2% of men 15+Estonia: 37.7% of GDP, 69.8% of men 15+Ethiopia: 6.12% of GDP, 78.6% of men 15+Finland: 44.9% of GDP, 63% of men 15+Fiji: 27.8% of GDP, 76.5% of men 15+France: 47.3% of GDP, 59.5% of men 15+Gabon: 14.1% of GDP, 60.1% of men 15+United Kingdom: 41.2% of GDP, 65.6% of men 15+Georgia: 25.2% of GDP, 73.5% of men 15+Ghana: 22.7% of GDP, 61.8% of men 15+Guinea-Bissau: 15.5% of GDP, 69.6% of men 15+Equatorial Guinea: 11% of GDP, 67.2% of men 15+Greece: 47.3% of GDP, 59.9% of men 15+Guatemala: 13.5% of GDP, 81.7% of men 15+Honduras: 24.4% of GDP, 73.5% of men 15+Croatia: 38.1% of GDP, 57.4% of men 15+Hungary: 42.4% of GDP, 67.5% of men 15+India: 13.7% of GDP, 77.6% of men 15+Ireland: 19.2% of GDP, 70.1% of men 15+Iraq: 27.6% of GDP, 72.6% of men 15+Iceland: 32% of GDP, 79.6% of men 15+Israel: 37.3% of GDP, 68.8% of men 15+Italy: 47.3% of GDP, 58.3% of men 15+Jamaica: 27.5% of GDP, 76.3% of men 15+Jordan: 25.9% of GDP, 62.5% of men 15+Japan: 20.1% of GDP, 71.5% of men 15+Kazakhstan: 17.4% of GDP, 73.4% of men 15+Kenya: 27.8% of GDP, 71.8% of men 15+Kyrgyz Republic: 23.7% of GDP, 71.4% of men 15+Cambodia: 12.9% of GDP, 87.8% of men 15+Korea, Rep.: 28.3% of GDP, 72% of men 15+Lao PDR: 10.3% of GDP, 70.6% of men 15+Lebanon: 6.3% of GDP, 66.7% of men 15+St. Lucia: 17.6% of GDP, 74.8% of men 15+Sri Lanka: 18% of GDP, 67.8% of men 15+Lesotho: 40.2% of GDP, 66.9% of men 15+Lithuania: 33.9% of GDP, 69% of men 15+Luxembourg: 42.2% of GDP, 65.5% of men 15+Latvia: 34.2% of GDP, 66.8% of men 15+Macao SAR, China: 19.6% of GDP, 73.6% of men 15+Morocco: 26.6% of GDP, 68.1% of men 15+Moldova: 34.5% of GDP, 72.2% of men 15+Madagascar: 11% of GDP, 88.1% of men 15+Maldives: 29.5% of GDP, 76.4% of men 15+Mexico: 22.5% of GDP, 77.1% of men 15+North Macedonia: 33.4% of GDP, 61.8% of men 15+Mali: 12.2% of GDP, 81% of men 15+Malta: 33.7% of GDP, 71.5% of men 15+Myanmar: 13.8% of GDP, 69.7% of men 15+Mongolia: 31.7% of GDP, 68.2% of men 15+Mozambique: 26% of GDP, 80.5% of men 15+Mauritius: 29.1% of GDP, 69.7% of men 15+Malawi: 20.2% of GDP, 67.3% of men 15+Malaysia: 17% of GDP, 79.2% of men 15+Namibia: 36.2% of GDP, 63% of men 15+Nicaragua: 16.3% of GDP, 81.8% of men 15+Netherlands: 40% of GDP, 71.9% of men 15+Norway: 34.5% of GDP, 69.1% of men 15+Nepal: 19.4% of GDP, 52.9% of men 15+New Zealand: 35.5% of GDP, 74.7% of men 15+Panama: 17.1% of GDP, 77.9% of men 15+Peru: 22.8% of GDP, 80.9% of men 15+Philippines: 16.9% of GDP, 72.5% of men 15+Papua New Guinea: 20.3% of GDP, 53.3% of men 15+Poland: 39.1% of GDP, 65.6% of men 15+Portugal: 37.2% of GDP, 62.1% of men 15+Paraguay: 18.9% of GDP, 81.6% of men 15+West Bank and Gaza: 26.2% of GDP, 72.1% of men 15+Romania: 37.3% of GDP, 61.7% of men 15+Russian Federation: 30% of GDP, 69% of men 15+Rwanda: 18% of GDP, 70.6% of men 15+Saudi Arabia: 24.2% of GDP, 83.3% of men 15+Sudan: 9.73% of GDP, 61.6% of men 15+Senegal: 23.6% of GDP, 65.7% of men 15+Singapore: 17.1% of GDP, 75.4% of men 15+Solomon Islands: 28.9% of GDP, 86.2% of men 15+El Salvador: 27.9% of GDP, 77.3% of men 15+Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.35% of GDP, 47.2% of men 15+Serbia: 35.5% of GDP, 66.5% of men 15+Slovak Republic: 39.8% of GDP, 66.1% of men 15+Slovenia: 42.9% of GDP, 62.8% of men 15+Sweden: 32.5% of GDP, 67.6% of men 15+Eswatini: 24.6% of GDP, 54% of men 15+Togo: 16% of GDP, 59% of men 15+Thailand: 20.7% of GDP, 75% of men 15+Tajikistan: 11% of GDP, 55.8% of men 15+Timor-Leste: 52.5% of GDP, 72.2% of men 15+Tonga: 34.7% of GDP, 59% of men 15+Trinidad and Tobago: 33.3% of GDP, 68.1% of men 15+Tunisia: 33.8% of GDP, 64.9% of men 15+Turkiye: 33% of GDP, 71.9% of men 15+Tanzania: 16.3% of GDP, 87.3% of men 15+Uganda: 16.6% of GDP, 84.6% of men 15+Ukraine: 65.6% of GDP, 62.8% of men 15+Uruguay: 36.5% of GDP, 73.4% of men 15+United States: 24.4% of GDP, 67.1% of men 15+Uzbekistan: 22.3% of GDP, 73.9% of men 15+St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 24.7% of GDP, 76.3% of men 15+Vanuatu: 26.6% of GDP, 62.9% of men 15+Samoa: 26.7% of GDP, 54.5% of men 15+South Africa: 33.4% of GDP, 61.7% of men 15+Zambia: 25.1% of GDP, 67.6% of men 15+Zimbabwe: 11% of GDP, 74.3% of men 15+AREFRAITAKHMMDGNPLSLBSOMTJKTLSUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3638.0e-6144
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.4103.3e-7144
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.3686.3e-6144
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.4093.9e-7144

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 144 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.005 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.408 (without SOM) to -0.328 (without ARE). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: ARE (+0.040).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific20-0.13
Europe & Central Asia46-0.43
Latin America & Caribbean23-0.56
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan13-0.39
Sub-Saharan Africa34-0.12

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third48-0.15
Middle third48-0.31
Richest third48-0.73

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96-0.40
Muslims29-0.18

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France14-0.28
Never a European colony16+0.03
Spain18-0.16
United Kingdom46-0.25

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.362 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.007, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose government expense moved did not tend to see their male labor participation move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.368for comparison
Within countries-0.018each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.007q = 0.919 · 148 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.038q = 0.140

3,551 country-years (one country in one year), 148 countries, 1990–2024, about 24 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 60% for Government expense, 11% for Male labor participation. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Male labor participation trails Government expense →lag -10: r = 0.028 (n = 2,782)lag -9: r = 0.015 (n = 2,871)lag -8: r = 0.016 (n = 2,959)lag -7: r = 0.017 (n = 3,040)lag -6: r = 0.016 (n = 3,119)lag -5: r = 0.014 (n = 3,199)lag -4: r = 0.010 (n = 3,274)lag -3: r = 0.006 (n = 3,345)lag -2: r = 0.004 (n = 3,416)lag -1: r = -0.002 (n = 3,485)lag +0: r = -0.007 (n = 3,551)lag +1: r = -0.003 (n = 3,550)lag +2: r = 0.005 (n = 3,546)lag +3: r = 0.015 (n = 3,455)lag +4: r = 0.025 (n = 3,344)lag +5: r = 0.035 (n = 3,217)lag +6: r = 0.045 (n = 3,090)lag +7: r = 0.049 (n = 2,951)lag +8: r = 0.051 (n = 2,805)lag +9: r = 0.056 (n = 2,662)lag +10: r = 0.057 (n = 2,525)

Same year (lag 0): -0.007. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of GDP
% of men 15+		Years
Ukraine UKR65.6%62.8%2023, 2021
Timor-Leste TLS52.5%72.2%2022, 2025
Greece GRC47.3%59.9%2023, 2025
Italy ITA47.3%58.3%2023, 2025
France FRA47.3%59.5%2023, 2025
Austria AUT46%65.4%2023, 2025
Finland FIN44.9%63%2023, 2025
Slovenia SVN42.9%62.8%2023, 2025
Hungary HUN42.4%67.5%2022, 2025
Luxembourg LUX42.2%65.5%2023, 2025
United Kingdom GBR41.2%65.6%2023, 2025
Lesotho LSO40.2%66.9%2022, 2025
Netherlands NLD40%71.9%2023, 2025
Slovak Republic SVK39.8%66.1%2022, 2025
Belgium BEL39.7%59%2022, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Government expense

Government expense (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Total central government spending, as a share of GDP: buying, payments to people, subsidies and interest together. From the IMF's Government Finance Statistics. It is the fuller measure of government size, but it covers fewer countries. It counts central government only, so a country with large state and local budgets looks low. About forty fewer countries report it than report government consumption. No "better" direction is set.

Male labor participation

Labor force participation rate, male (% of male population 15+)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Government expense and Male labor participation

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Government expense changes Male labor participation, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Government expense or Male labor participation