placestats

Government effectiveness vs. Youth not in work or study

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 174 countries, Government effectiveness and Youth not in work or study rise and fall together at r = -0.60 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.29 (q = 0.036, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak negative link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of youth not in work or study, 11.7% to 25.9% of 15 to 24 year olds, government effectiveness is worse by 0.684 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.216 points.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.597p = 3.3e-18 · 174 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.289p = 0.000 · likely range [-0.42, -0.15]
p, allowing for regions0.005standard error 0.066 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.036across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Government effectiveness · index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5)link with income +0.85 · proxy
Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year oldslink with income -0.63 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Government effectiveness · index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5) →Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year olds →-2.022.283.14%65.7%Aruba: 0.657 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 16.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsAfghanistan: -1.93 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAngola: -0.785 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlbania: 0.312 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 21% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Arab Emirates: 1.26 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 8.92% of 15 to 24 year oldsArgentina: 0.184 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsArmenia: -0.364 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsAntigua and Barbuda: 0.43 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustralia: 1.81 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 8.53% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustria: 1.51 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsAzerbaijan: 0.166 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 9.64% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurundi: -1.01 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 11.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelgium: 1.19 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 8.15% of 15 to 24 year oldsBenin: -0.185 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurkina Faso: -0.875 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsBangladesh: -0.619 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsBulgaria: 0.0428 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBosnia and Herzegovina: -0.635 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 14.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelarus: -0.702 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 65.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelize: -0.129 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBermuda: 1.48 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 6.79% of 15 to 24 year oldsBolivia: -0.61 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 8.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrazil: -0.224 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 18.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBarbados: 0.605 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrunei Darussalam: 0.835 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19% of 15 to 24 year oldsBhutan: 0.581 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBotswana: 0.417 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsCanada: 1.76 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSwitzerland: 1.84 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 6.99% of 15 to 24 year oldsChile: 0.964 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCote d'Ivoire: -0.316 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 18.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsCameroon: -0.801 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 23.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCongo, Dem. Rep.: -1.69 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 31.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsColombia: -0.111 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 22% of 15 to 24 year oldsComoros: -1.21 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 21.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCabo Verde: 0.415 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 28% of 15 to 24 year oldsCosta Rica: 0.287 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCyprus: 0.87 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCzechia: 1.18 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 4.62% of 15 to 24 year oldsGermany: 1.55 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 7.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsDjibouti: -0.493 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 44% of 15 to 24 year oldsDenmark: 1.91 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 6.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsDominican Republic: 0.0746 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlgeria: -0.251 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEcuador: -0.22 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 17.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsEgypt, Arab Rep.: -0.0971 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 23.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSpain: 1.11 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsEstonia: 1.3 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsEthiopia: -0.646 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 17.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsFinland: 1.82 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 8.28% of 15 to 24 year oldsFiji: 0.609 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsFrance: 1.2 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 12.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: -0.185 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 28.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGabon: -0.567 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Kingdom: 1.18 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 14.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGeorgia: 0.456 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 14.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGhana: 0.0596 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 23.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea: -0.888 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsGambia, The: -0.536 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea-Bissau: -1.37 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsGreece: 0.191 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGrenada: 0.0201 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuatemala: -0.909 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuyana: -0.0982 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 44.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsHong Kong SAR, China: 1.64 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 5.95% of 15 to 24 year oldsHonduras: -0.62 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsCroatia: 0.71 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 8.08% of 15 to 24 year oldsHaiti: -2.02 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 21.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsHungary: 0.502 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 9.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndonesia: 0.18 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 21.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndia: 0.405 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsIreland: 1.61 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 5.67% of 15 to 24 year oldsIran, Islamic Rep.: -0.706 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsIraq: -1.1 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 36.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsIceland: 1.65 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 3.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIsrael: 1.17 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsItaly: 0.792 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 12% of 15 to 24 year oldsJamaica: 0.171 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsJordan: 0.216 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 29.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsJapan: 2.09 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 3.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsKazakhstan: 0.147 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 9.49% of 15 to 24 year oldsKenya: -0.298 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 18.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsKyrgyz Republic: -0.889 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsCambodia: -0.294 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 6.32% of 15 to 24 year oldsKiribati: -0.434 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 35.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsLao PDR: -0.582 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 22.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLebanon: -1.13 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 23.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLiberia: -1.25 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 39.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsSt. Lucia: 0.268 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSri Lanka: -0.275 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 17.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLesotho: -0.647 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsLithuania: 1.2 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 14.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsLuxembourg: 2.04 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLatvia: 0.743 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 9.89% of 15 to 24 year oldsMacao SAR, China: 1.12 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 4.96% of 15 to 24 year oldsMorocco: 0.176 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 35.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMoldova: 0.258 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 9.05% of 15 to 24 year oldsMadagascar: -0.863 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMaldives: -0.221 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 26.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMexico: -0.22 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 16.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMarshall Islands: -0.291 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 40% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorth Macedonia: -0.0323 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsMali: -1.29 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalta: 0.622 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 7.84% of 15 to 24 year oldsMyanmar: -1.56 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15% of 15 to 24 year oldsMontenegro: 0.366 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMongolia: -0.389 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 9.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMozambique: -0.716 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritania: -0.741 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 44.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritius: 0.765 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalawi: -0.726 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 39.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalaysia: 0.915 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsNamibia: 0.0993 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 31.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNiger: -0.77 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsNigeria: -1.01 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 11.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNicaragua: -1.05 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsNetherlands: 1.75 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 4.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorway: 1.84 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 5.82% of 15 to 24 year oldsNepal: -0.885 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 34.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsNaoero: 0.01 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 50.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsNew Zealand: 1.85 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsOman: 0.568 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPakistan: -0.6 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 28.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPanama: 0.245 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPeru: -0.2 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 22.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsPhilippines: 0.145 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsPalau: 0.01 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 11.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsPapua New Guinea: -0.9 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 27.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsPoland: 0.673 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPuerto Rico (US): -0.255 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPortugal: 0.947 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 7.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsParaguay: -0.355 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 18.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsWest Bank and Gaza: -1.1 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 25.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsRomania: 0.418 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 17% of 15 to 24 year oldsRussian Federation: -0.322 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 6.68% of 15 to 24 year oldsRwanda: 0.349 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSaudi Arabia: 0.783 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 16.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsSudan: -1.79 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 46.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSenegal: 0.234 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 35.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSingapore: 2.28 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 6.46% of 15 to 24 year oldsSolomon Islands: -0.869 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 7.04% of 15 to 24 year oldsSierra Leone: -0.967 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 25.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEl Salvador: -0.183 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: -1.95 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 51% of 15 to 24 year oldsSerbia: 0.102 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 12.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsSao Tome and Principe: -0.719 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSuriname: -0.454 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 18.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovak Republic: 0.658 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 8.75% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovenia: 1.09 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 7.13% of 15 to 24 year oldsSweden: 1.77 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 5.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsEswatini: -0.781 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSeychelles: 0.627 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 16.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsChad: -1.1 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 42.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTogo: -0.801 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13% of 15 to 24 year oldsThailand: 0.254 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsTajikistan: -0.601 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 41.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTimor-Leste: -0.899 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 29.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsTonga: -0.0373 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTrinidad and Tobago: 0.111 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsTunisia: -0.239 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 22.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTurkiye: -0.0707 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 22.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsTuvalu: -0.691 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTanzania: -0.292 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUganda: -0.35 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUkraine: -0.599 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 16.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsUruguay: 0.69 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 14% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited States: 1.36 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 11.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsViet Nam: -0.0923 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsVanuatu: -0.817 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 29.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSamoa: 0.434 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsKosovo: -0.0613 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 30% of 15 to 24 year oldsSouth Africa: -0.226 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 34.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsZambia: -0.533 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 26.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsZimbabwe: -0.988 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 36% of 15 to 24 year oldsBLRGNBGUYHTIJPNMMRNLDNRUSDNSGPSOM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5973.3e-18174
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.6151.8e-19174
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2890.000174
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1880.013174

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 174 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.309 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.305 (without MMR) to -0.239 (without BLR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BLR (+0.049).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific29+0.04
Europe & Central Asia47-0.30
Latin America & Caribbean29-0.31
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17+0.06
Sub-Saharan Africa43-0.33

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third58-0.19
Middle third58-0.14
Richest third58-0.51

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians105-0.37
Muslims43-0.05

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France22-0.09
Never a European colony17-0.34
Spain19+0.05
United Kingdom55-0.35

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.245 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 29years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = -0.122) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = -0.026). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.289for comparison
Within countries-0.174each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.122q = 0.038 · 120 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.026q = 0.585
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

2,023 country-years (one country in one year), 120 countries, 1996–2024, about 17 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 19% for Government effectiveness, 4% for Youth not in work or study. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Youth not in work or study trails Government effectiveness →lag -10: r = -0.066 (n = 1,170)lag -9: r = -0.033 (n = 1,256)lag -8: r = -0.030 (n = 1,366)lag -7: r = -0.042 (n = 1,448)lag -6: r = -0.080 (n = 1,536)lag -5: r = -0.084 (n = 1,620)lag -4: r = -0.104 (n = 1,714)lag -3: r = -0.128 (n = 1,795)lag -2: r = -0.103 (n = 1,891)lag -1: r = -0.132 (n = 1,972)lag +0: r = -0.122 (n = 2,023)lag +1: r = -0.123 (n = 2,035)lag +2: r = -0.099 (n = 1,982)lag +3: r = -0.078 (n = 1,952)lag +4: r = -0.065 (n = 1,889)lag +5: r = -0.027 (n = 1,848)lag +6: r = -0.025 (n = 1,771)lag +7: r = -0.013 (n = 1,721)lag +8: r = -0.012 (n = 1,637)lag +9: r = -0.015 (n = 1,573)lag +10: r = -0.007 (n = 1,481)

Same year (lag 0): -0.122. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5)
% of 15 to 24 year olds		Years
Singapore SGP2.286.46%2024, 2025
Japan JPN2.093.14%2024, 2019
Luxembourg LUX2.0410.2%2024
Denmark DNK1.916.9%2024
New Zealand NZL1.8512.8%2024
Norway NOR1.845.82%2024
Switzerland CHE1.846.99%2024, 2025
Finland FIN1.828.28%2024
Australia AUS1.818.53%2024
Sweden SWE1.775.58%2024
Canada CAN1.7613.3%2024, 2025
Netherlands NLD1.754.14%2024
Iceland ISL1.653.98%2024
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG1.645.95%2024, 2025
Ireland IRL1.615.67%2024

Kaufmann, D. and A. Kraay, Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Government effectiveness

Government Effectiveness (estimate)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Youth not in work or study

Share of youth not in education, employment or training, total (% of youth population)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

From labour force surveys, so yearly for about a hundred countries and occasional elsewhere.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Government effectiveness and Youth not in work or study

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Government effectiveness changes Youth not in work or study, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

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