Do Gender score and Women's age at first marriage go together across countries?

Across 40 countries the link before adjusting for anything is r = +0.56, on a scale from -1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). A version that uses only each country's rank gives +0.50.

Does the link hold within countries over time, not just across countries?

There are not enough years of data within countries to check this over time.

Does Gender score cause Women's age at first marriage?

This analysis cannot answer that. It shows only that the two go together. A link between two country measures, adjusted or not, does not show that either one changes the other. Country figures also say nothing about individual people.

Gender score vs. Women's age at first marriage

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 40 countries, Gender score and Women's age at first marriage rise and fall together at r = +0.56 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = +0.54, which could easily be chance (q = 0.055, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of women's age at first marriage, 28.9 to 32 years, gender score is better by 0.457 typical gaps at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.492 typical gaps.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.561p = 0.000 · 40 countries

After adjusting for national income+0.544p = 0.000 · likely range [+0.28, +0.73]

p, allowing for regions0.015standard error 0.134 · 5 regions

Check for luck (q)0.055across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Gender score · typical gaps (standard deviations)link with income +0.37 · moderate

Women's age at first marriage · yearslink with income +0.53 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

Method	r	p	Countries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted	+0.561	0.000	40
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted	+0.498	0.001	40
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income	+0.544	0.000	40
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income	+0.436	0.005	40

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 40 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.017 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.478 (without TUR) to +0.586 (without ITA). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: TUR (-0.066).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

	n	r
Europe & Central Asia	30	+0.63

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

	n	r
Poorest third	14	+0.59
Middle third	13	+0.28
Richest third	13	+0.64

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

	n	r
Christians	33	+0.48

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.544 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data

	typical gaps (standard deviations)	years	Years
Iceland ISL	2.19	32.4	2024, 2011
Finland FIN	2.04	31.9	2024, 2019
Sweden SWE	1.79	34.8	2024, 2020
Chile CHL	1.72	31.5	2024, 2016
Estonia EST	1.7	29.9	2024, 2018
Spain ESP	1.69	34.9	2024, 2020
New Zealand NZL	1.62	29.6	2024, 2021
Australia AUS	1.57	29.2	2024, 2020
Norway NOR	1.53	34.1	2024, 2020
Belgium BEL	1.45	32	2024, 2020
Canada CAN	1.38	28.9	2024, 2017
France FRA	1.36	33.1	2024, 2018
Germany DEU	1.34	31.2	2024, 2017
Mexico MEX	1.33	27.5	2025, 2014
Latvia LVA	1.32	29.8	2024, 2020

vdem; wb_gender; wdi
OECD databases as named on each indicator: PISA, Social Expenditure Database (SOCX), Income Distribution Database, Development Assistance Committee statistics, Family Database, Government at a Glance, Corporate Tax Statistics, employment and environment statistics

Sources

Gender score

PlaceStats · via PlaceStats · Derived work; each member keeps its own licence · updated recomputed with the panel

The average of 5 measures from 3 publishers. Each measure is first put on a common scale: 0 is the average country in an average year, and 1 is a typical gap between countries (a standard deviation). Each is turned so that higher is better. Measures are averaged within each publisher first, so a publisher with many measures does not count for more. Members: Women's political empowerment, Women ministers, Women in parliament, Women in management, Married by 18.

Women's age at first marriage

Mean age of women at first marriage

OECD · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 (OECD terms and conditions) · updated annual, except the snapshots noted per indicator

Published from 2001. How many countries report it varies from year to year: 25 in 2012, two in 2021. So the latest value in the time window used is from a different year for different countries. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2011–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 5 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Gender score and Women's age at first marriage

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Gender score changes Women's age at first marriage, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.