placestats

Freedom of association vs. Military spending

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 154 countries, Freedom of association and Military spending rise and fall together at r = -0.20 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.24, q = 0.037, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: leave-one-out range spans 0.20 in r.

Comparing countries across the middle half of freedom of association, 0.436 to 0.867 points, military spending is 0.929% of GDP lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.16% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.203p = 0.012 · 154 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.243p = 0.003 · likely range [-0.39, -0.09]
p, allowing for regions0.003standard error 0.050 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.037across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Freedom of association · index (0-1)link with income +0.42 · moderate
Military spending · % of GDPlink with income +0.19 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Freedom of association · index (0-1) →Military spending · % of GDP →0.0230.9310.0684%34.5%Afghanistan: 0.023 index (0-1), 1.83% of GDPAngola: 0.61 index (0-1), 1% of GDPAlbania: 0.785 index (0-1), 2.04% of GDPUnited Arab Emirates: 0.04 index (0-1), 5.64% of GDPArgentina: 0.839 index (0-1), 0.618% of GDPArmenia: 0.869 index (0-1), 5.48% of GDPAustralia: 0.876 index (0-1), 1.88% of GDPAustria: 0.883 index (0-1), 1% of GDPAzerbaijan: 0.141 index (0-1), 4.99% of GDPBurundi: 0.226 index (0-1), 3.8% of GDPBelgium: 0.896 index (0-1), 1.28% of GDPBenin: 0.619 index (0-1), 0.721% of GDPBurkina Faso: 0.309 index (0-1), 4.68% of GDPBangladesh: 0.535 index (0-1), 0.941% of GDPBulgaria: 0.833 index (0-1), 2.15% of GDPBahrain: 0.139 index (0-1), 2.89% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.793 index (0-1), 0.747% of GDPBelarus: 0.07 index (0-1), 2.07% of GDPBolivia: 0.805 index (0-1), 1.37% of GDPBrazil: 0.882 index (0-1), 0.973% of GDPBotswana: 0.85 index (0-1), 2.83% of GDPCentral African Republic: 0.458 index (0-1), 2.52% of GDPCanada: 0.865 index (0-1), 1.31% of GDPSwitzerland: 0.917 index (0-1), 0.718% of GDPChile: 0.86 index (0-1), 1.58% of GDPChina: 0.03 index (0-1), 1.71% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 0.615 index (0-1), 0.762% of GDPCameroon: 0.336 index (0-1), 1.01% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.48 index (0-1), 1.23% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 0.433 index (0-1), 1.19% of GDPColombia: 0.89 index (0-1), 3.36% of GDPCabo Verde: 0.874 index (0-1), 0.624% of GDPCyprus: 0.894 index (0-1), 1.65% of GDPCzechia: 0.872 index (0-1), 1.92% of GDPGermany: 0.852 index (0-1), 1.89% of GDPDenmark: 0.929 index (0-1), 2.42% of GDPDominican Republic: 0.876 index (0-1), 0.782% of GDPAlgeria: 0.303 index (0-1), 7.97% of GDPEcuador: 0.719 index (0-1), 2.22% of GDPEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.159 index (0-1), 0.665% of GDPSpain: 0.915 index (0-1), 1.43% of GDPEstonia: 0.908 index (0-1), 3.37% of GDPEthiopia: 0.342 index (0-1), 0.651% of GDPFinland: 0.864 index (0-1), 2.3% of GDPFiji: 0.721 index (0-1), 1.31% of GDPFrance: 0.889 index (0-1), 2.05% of GDPGabon: 0.609 index (0-1), 1.54% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 0.859 index (0-1), 2.28% of GDPGeorgia: 0.646 index (0-1), 1.86% of GDPGhana: 0.888 index (0-1), 0.384% of GDPGuinea: 0.424 index (0-1), 2.05% of GDPGambia, The: 0.775 index (0-1), 0.574% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 0.509 index (0-1), 1.23% of GDPEquatorial Guinea: 0.167 index (0-1), 0.982% of GDPGreece: 0.801 index (0-1), 3.13% of GDPGuatemala: 0.834 index (0-1), 0.368% of GDPGuyana: 0.821 index (0-1), 0.868% of GDPHonduras: 0.871 index (0-1), 1.58% of GDPCroatia: 0.821 index (0-1), 1.79% of GDPHaiti: 0.612 index (0-1), 0.0684% of GDPHungary: 0.605 index (0-1), 2.16% of GDPIndonesia: 0.638 index (0-1), 0.779% of GDPIndia: 0.586 index (0-1), 2.27% of GDPIreland: 0.912 index (0-1), 0.239% of GDPIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.093 index (0-1), 2.01% of GDPIraq: 0.578 index (0-1), 2.36% of GDPIsrael: 0.758 index (0-1), 8.78% of GDPItaly: 0.875 index (0-1), 1.61% of GDPJamaica: 0.879 index (0-1), 1.27% of GDPJordan: 0.616 index (0-1), 4.8% of GDPJapan: 0.924 index (0-1), 1.37% of GDPKazakhstan: 0.287 index (0-1), 0.428% of GDPKenya: 0.793 index (0-1), 1% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 0.338 index (0-1), 2.97% of GDPCambodia: 0.195 index (0-1), 1.52% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 0.839 index (0-1), 2.56% of GDPKuwait: 0.07 index (0-1), 4.84% of GDPLao PDR: 0.047 index (0-1), 0.19% of GDPLebanon: 0.715 index (0-1), 2.59% of GDPLiberia: 0.809 index (0-1), 0.711% of GDPLibya: 0.508 index (0-1), 5.29% of GDPSri Lanka: 0.853 index (0-1), 1.43% of GDPLesotho: 0.873 index (0-1), 1.57% of GDPLithuania: 0.841 index (0-1), 3.12% of GDPLuxembourg: 0.895 index (0-1), 0.963% of GDPLatvia: 0.888 index (0-1), 3.26% of GDPMorocco: 0.548 index (0-1), 3.52% of GDPMoldova: 0.81 index (0-1), 0.598% of GDPMadagascar: 0.812 index (0-1), 0.709% of GDPMexico: 0.702 index (0-1), 0.893% of GDPNorth Macedonia: 0.768 index (0-1), 2.1% of GDPMali: 0.315 index (0-1), 4.2% of GDPMalta: 0.902 index (0-1), 0.451% of GDPMyanmar: 0.105 index (0-1), 6.79% of GDPMontenegro: 0.868 index (0-1), 1.83% of GDPMongolia: 0.718 index (0-1), 0.742% of GDPMozambique: 0.519 index (0-1), 1.99% of GDPMauritania: 0.416 index (0-1), 2.16% of GDPMauritius: 0.885 index (0-1), 0.15% of GDPMalawi: 0.767 index (0-1), 1.02% of GDPMalaysia: 0.791 index (0-1), 0.988% of GDPNamibia: 0.87 index (0-1), 2.73% of GDPNiger: 0.57 index (0-1), 2.24% of GDPNigeria: 0.846 index (0-1), 0.555% of GDPNicaragua: 0.042 index (0-1), 0.545% of GDPNetherlands: 0.868 index (0-1), 1.92% of GDPNorway: 0.915 index (0-1), 2.09% of GDPNepal: 0.868 index (0-1), 0.979% of GDPNew Zealand: 0.885 index (0-1), 1.19% of GDPOman: 0.049 index (0-1), 5.59% of GDPPakistan: 0.495 index (0-1), 2.67% of GDPPeru: 0.777 index (0-1), 0.909% of GDPPhilippines: 0.698 index (0-1), 1.32% of GDPPapua New Guinea: 0.879 index (0-1), 0.308% of GDPPoland: 0.862 index (0-1), 4.15% of GDPPortugal: 0.874 index (0-1), 1.53% of GDPParaguay: 0.8 index (0-1), 0.933% of GDPQatar: 0.039 index (0-1), 6.5% of GDPRomania: 0.806 index (0-1), 2.3% of GDPRussian Federation: 0.115 index (0-1), 7.05% of GDPRwanda: 0.144 index (0-1), 1.25% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 0.026 index (0-1), 7.3% of GDPSudan: 0.242 index (0-1), 0.925% of GDPSenegal: 0.798 index (0-1), 1.57% of GDPSingapore: 0.591 index (0-1), 2.84% of GDPSierra Leone: 0.837 index (0-1), 0.463% of GDPEl Salvador: 0.646 index (0-1), 1.19% of GDPSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.445 index (0-1), 1.59% of GDPSerbia: 0.577 index (0-1), 2.6% of GDPSlovak Republic: 0.839 index (0-1), 2.01% of GDPSlovenia: 0.861 index (0-1), 1.31% of GDPSweden: 0.931 index (0-1), 2% of GDPEswatini: 0.023 index (0-1), 1.44% of GDPSeychelles: 0.833 index (0-1), 1.18% of GDPSyrian Arab Republic: 0.159 index (0-1), 4.06% of GDPChad: 0.399 index (0-1), 2.98% of GDPTogo: 0.533 index (0-1), 2% of GDPThailand: 0.662 index (0-1), 1.08% of GDPTajikistan: 0.106 index (0-1), 1.85% of GDPTimor-Leste: 0.844 index (0-1), 2.66% of GDPTrinidad and Tobago: 0.883 index (0-1), 0.921% of GDPTunisia: 0.479 index (0-1), 2.51% of GDPTurkiye: 0.565 index (0-1), 1.92% of GDPTanzania: 0.616 index (0-1), 1.15% of GDPUganda: 0.379 index (0-1), 1.88% of GDPUkraine: 0.542 index (0-1), 34.5% of GDPUruguay: 0.902 index (0-1), 2.31% of GDPUnited States: 0.913 index (0-1), 3.42% of GDPUzbekistan: 0.149 index (0-1), 2.87% of GDPViet Nam: 0.024 index (0-1), 1.81% of GDPKosovo: 0.838 index (0-1), 1.48% of GDPSouth Africa: 0.87 index (0-1), 0.7% of GDPZambia: 0.746 index (0-1), 1.33% of GDPZimbabwe: 0.424 index (0-1), 0.351% of GDPARMIRLISRLAOMLTMUSNICQATSAUSWZUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.2030.012154
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.2300.004154
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2430.003154
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3518.8e-6154

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 154 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.040 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.427 (without UKR) to -0.223 (without SAU). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: UKR (-0.184).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • leave-one-out range spans 0.20 in r
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific18-0.26
Europe & Central Asia47-0.06
Latin America & Caribbean19+0.27
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20-0.12
Sub-Saharan Africa44-0.31

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third52-0.39
Middle third51-0.12
Richest third51-0.65

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians91-0.14
Muslims44-0.50

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23-0.26
Never a European colony20-0.40
Spain17+0.22
United Kingdom45-0.47

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.167 after dropping 13 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.029, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose freedom of association moved did not tend to see their military spending move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.243for comparison
Within countries-0.092each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.029q = 0.620 · 162 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.024q = 0.241

5,017 country-years (one country in one year), 162 countries, 1990–2024, about 31 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 13% for Freedom of association, 55% for Military spending. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Military spending trails Freedom of association →lag -10: r = -0.025 (n = 3,674)lag -9: r = -0.030 (n = 3,823)lag -8: r = -0.028 (n = 3,977)lag -7: r = -0.025 (n = 4,129)lag -6: r = -0.023 (n = 4,278)lag -5: r = -0.019 (n = 4,427)lag -4: r = -0.017 (n = 4,577)lag -3: r = -0.022 (n = 4,726)lag -2: r = -0.027 (n = 4,874)lag -1: r = -0.032 (n = 5,019)lag +0: r = -0.029 (n = 5,017)lag +1: r = -0.016 (n = 4,902)lag +2: r = -0.024 (n = 4,785)lag +3: r = -0.015 (n = 4,658)lag +4: r = -0.010 (n = 4,518)lag +5: r = 0.003 (n = 4,377)lag +6: r = -0.008 (n = 4,232)lag +7: r = -0.014 (n = 4,095)lag +8: r = -0.027 (n = 3,956)lag +9: r = -0.036 (n = 3,821)lag +10: r = -0.029 (n = 3,678)

Same year (lag 0): -0.029. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


index (0-1)
% of GDP		Years
Sweden SWE0.9312%2025, 2024
Denmark DNK0.9292.42%2025, 2024
Japan JPN0.9241.37%2025, 2024
Switzerland CHE0.9170.718%2025, 2024
Norway NOR0.9152.09%2025, 2024
Spain ESP0.9151.43%2025, 2024
United States USA0.9133.42%2025, 2024
Ireland IRL0.9120.239%2025, 2024
Estonia EST0.9083.37%2025, 2024
Uruguay URY0.9022.31%2025, 2024
Malta MLT0.9020.451%2025, 2024
Belgium BEL0.8961.28%2025, 2024
Luxembourg LUX0.8950.963%2025, 2024
Cyprus CYP0.8941.65%2025, 2024
Colombia COL0.893.36%2025, 2024

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Freedom of association

Freedom of association index

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Whether parties and civic groups may form and operate freely. A part of the electoral democracy index.

Military spending

Military expenditure (% of GDP)

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Freedom of association and Military spending

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Freedom of association changes Military spending, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Freedom of association or Military spending