placestats

Freedom from party bans vs. Secondary enrollment

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 161 countries, Freedom from party bans and Secondary enrollment rise and fall together at r = +0.22 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.14, q = 0.031, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of freedom from party bans, 0.37 to 1.97 points, secondary enrollment is better by 7.2% gross at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2.86% gross.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.222p = 0.005 · 161 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.144p = 0.069 · likely range [-0.01, +0.29]
p, allowing for regions0.002standard error 0.029 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.031across 17,292 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Freedom from party bans · score (higher = fewer bans)link with income +0.28 · independent
Secondary enrollment · % grosslink with income +0.71 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Freedom from party bans · score (higher = fewer bans) →Secondary enrollment · % gross →-3.652.653.35%143%Afghanistan: -2.62 score (higher = fewer bans), 59.6% grossAngola: 1.45 score (higher = fewer bans), 51.5% grossAlbania: 0.892 score (higher = fewer bans), 108% grossUnited Arab Emirates: -2.04 score (higher = fewer bans), 102% grossArgentina: 2.2 score (higher = fewer bans), 106% grossArmenia: 2.14 score (higher = fewer bans), 90.9% grossAustralia: 1.92 score (higher = fewer bans), 132% grossAustria: 1.03 score (higher = fewer bans), 101% grossAzerbaijan: 0.504 score (higher = fewer bans), 91.1% grossBurundi: -0.492 score (higher = fewer bans), 23.1% grossBelgium: 1.18 score (higher = fewer bans), 143% grossBenin: 1.67 score (higher = fewer bans), 43.6% grossBurkina Faso: -0.069 score (higher = fewer bans), 30% grossBangladesh: 0.549 score (higher = fewer bans), 64.3% grossBulgaria: 1.2 score (higher = fewer bans), 94.8% grossBahrain: -0.953 score (higher = fewer bans), 98.8% grossBosnia and Herzegovina: 1.89 score (higher = fewer bans), 87.9% grossBelarus: -0.033 score (higher = fewer bans), 94.8% grossBolivia: 1.66 score (higher = fewer bans), 90.5% grossBrazil: 2.49 score (higher = fewer bans), 104% grossBarbados: 1.84 score (higher = fewer bans), 104% grossBhutan: 0.428 score (higher = fewer bans), 86.2% grossBotswana: 2.23 score (higher = fewer bans), 70.6% grossCentral African Republic: 1.22 score (higher = fewer bans), 15.8% grossCanada: 2.33 score (higher = fewer bans), 104% grossSwitzerland: 1.84 score (higher = fewer bans), 101% grossChile: 2.28 score (higher = fewer bans), 106% grossChina: -2.66 score (higher = fewer bans), 92.3% grossCote d'Ivoire: -0.473 score (higher = fewer bans), 65.3% grossCameroon: 0.513 score (higher = fewer bans), 44.8% grossCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.315 score (higher = fewer bans), 55.5% grossCongo, Rep.: 1.49 score (higher = fewer bans), 50.5% grossColombia: 2.45 score (higher = fewer bans), 102% grossComoros: 1.21 score (higher = fewer bans), 54.8% grossCabo Verde: 1.88 score (higher = fewer bans), 96.4% grossCosta Rica: 2.45 score (higher = fewer bans), 122% grossCyprus: 2.06 score (higher = fewer bans), 107% grossCzechia: 1.42 score (higher = fewer bans), 97.6% grossGermany: 1.11 score (higher = fewer bans), 100% grossDenmark: 2.47 score (higher = fewer bans), 126% grossDominican Republic: 2.38 score (higher = fewer bans), 76.4% grossAlgeria: 0.358 score (higher = fewer bans), 105% grossEcuador: 1.92 score (higher = fewer bans), 92.8% grossEgypt, Arab Rep.: -0.392 score (higher = fewer bans), 84.8% grossSpain: 2.03 score (higher = fewer bans), 119% grossEstonia: 1.97 score (higher = fewer bans), 109% grossEthiopia: 0.2 score (higher = fewer bans), 33.9% grossFinland: 2.13 score (higher = fewer bans), 142% grossFiji: 0.91 score (higher = fewer bans), 98.1% grossFrance: 2.09 score (higher = fewer bans), 104% grossGabon: 0.621 score (higher = fewer bans), 70.3% grossUnited Kingdom: 1.28 score (higher = fewer bans), 112% grossGeorgia: 1.01 score (higher = fewer bans), 101% grossGhana: 1.73 score (higher = fewer bans), 75.7% grossGuinea: -0.573 score (higher = fewer bans), 38.6% grossGambia, The: 1.72 score (higher = fewer bans), 107% grossGreece: 0.057 score (higher = fewer bans), 105% grossGuatemala: 1.15 score (higher = fewer bans), 49.6% grossGuyana: 2.18 score (higher = fewer bans), 91.4% grossHong Kong SAR, China: -0.976 score (higher = fewer bans), 107% grossHonduras: 1.96 score (higher = fewer bans), 51.8% grossCroatia: 1.29 score (higher = fewer bans), 105% grossHungary: 2.21 score (higher = fewer bans), 107% grossIndonesia: 0.279 score (higher = fewer bans), 97.2% grossIndia: 0.852 score (higher = fewer bans), 79.6% grossIreland: 2.2 score (higher = fewer bans), 131% grossIran, Islamic Rep.: -1.38 score (higher = fewer bans), 85.1% grossIceland: 2.06 score (higher = fewer bans), 109% grossIsrael: 0.696 score (higher = fewer bans), 98.5% grossItaly: 1.25 score (higher = fewer bans), 101% grossJamaica: 2.16 score (higher = fewer bans), 84.5% grossJordan: 0.898 score (higher = fewer bans), 91.8% grossJapan: 2.61 score (higher = fewer bans), 102% grossKazakhstan: 0.049 score (higher = fewer bans), 97.6% grossKenya: 1.89 score (higher = fewer bans), 84.3% grossKyrgyz Republic: 1.22 score (higher = fewer bans), 91.7% grossCambodia: -0.321 score (higher = fewer bans), 58.8% grossKorea, Rep.: 1.31 score (higher = fewer bans), 96.3% grossKuwait: -1.81 score (higher = fewer bans), 95.4% grossLao PDR: -3.52 score (higher = fewer bans), 50.5% grossLebanon: 1.78 score (higher = fewer bans), 63.8% grossLiberia: 0.271 score (higher = fewer bans), 37.7% grossSri Lanka: 1.88 score (higher = fewer bans), 88% grossLesotho: 1.88 score (higher = fewer bans), 59.4% grossLithuania: 0.798 score (higher = fewer bans), 105% grossLuxembourg: 2.28 score (higher = fewer bans), 109% grossLatvia: 1.21 score (higher = fewer bans), 101% grossMorocco: 1.23 score (higher = fewer bans), 90% grossMoldova: 0.851 score (higher = fewer bans), 99.3% grossMadagascar: 2.05 score (higher = fewer bans), 34.1% grossMaldives: 2.08 score (higher = fewer bans), 79.4% grossMexico: 1.93 score (higher = fewer bans), 103% grossNorth Macedonia: 2.3 score (higher = fewer bans), 90.1% grossMali: -0.865 score (higher = fewer bans), 38.9% grossMalta: 1.96 score (higher = fewer bans), 103% grossMyanmar: -1.3 score (higher = fewer bans), 77% grossMontenegro: 2.07 score (higher = fewer bans), 93.9% grossMongolia: 0.766 score (higher = fewer bans), 96.8% grossMozambique: 0.37 score (higher = fewer bans), 37.2% grossMauritania: -0.584 score (higher = fewer bans), 36% grossMauritius: 2.16 score (higher = fewer bans), 90.7% grossMalawi: 1.15 score (higher = fewer bans), 36.6% grossMalaysia: 1.57 score (higher = fewer bans), 80.3% grossNamibia: 0.661 score (higher = fewer bans), 82% grossNiger: 0.14 score (higher = fewer bans), 19.9% grossNigeria: 1.88 score (higher = fewer bans), 46.9% grossNicaragua: -2.27 score (higher = fewer bans), 70.2% grossNetherlands: 2.15 score (higher = fewer bans), 138% grossNorway: 2.05 score (higher = fewer bans), 116% grossNepal: 2.65 score (higher = fewer bans), 90.4% grossNew Zealand: 1.95 score (higher = fewer bans), 114% grossOman: -2.04 score (higher = fewer bans), 95.1% grossPakistan: 0.438 score (higher = fewer bans), 48.3% grossPanama: 2.19 score (higher = fewer bans), 76.6% grossPeru: 1.04 score (higher = fewer bans), 108% grossPhilippines: 0.949 score (higher = fewer bans), 85.3% grossPapua New Guinea: 2.15 score (higher = fewer bans), 52.1% grossPoland: 1.71 score (higher = fewer bans), 108% grossPortugal: 0.931 score (higher = fewer bans), 120% grossParaguay: 2.41 score (higher = fewer bans), 79.1% grossWest Bank and Gaza: 1.16 score (higher = fewer bans), 89.1% grossQatar: -1.74 score (higher = fewer bans), 99.6% grossRomania: 0.848 score (higher = fewer bans), 81.6% grossRussian Federation: -0.003 score (higher = fewer bans), 92.5% grossRwanda: -1.16 score (higher = fewer bans), 48.8% grossSaudi Arabia: -2.81 score (higher = fewer bans), 111% grossSudan: 0.122 score (higher = fewer bans), 43.5% grossSenegal: 1.76 score (higher = fewer bans), 44.1% grossSingapore: 1.27 score (higher = fewer bans), 103% grossSolomon Islands: 2.2 score (higher = fewer bans), 49% grossSierra Leone: 1.77 score (higher = fewer bans), 86.9% grossEl Salvador: 2.32 score (higher = fewer bans), 62.1% grossSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.838 score (higher = fewer bans), 3.35% grossSerbia: 1.93 score (higher = fewer bans), 89.8% grossSao Tome and Principe: 1.72 score (higher = fewer bans), 90.4% grossSuriname: 1.97 score (higher = fewer bans), 76.1% grossSlovak Republic: 1.83 score (higher = fewer bans), 93.2% grossSlovenia: 1.91 score (higher = fewer bans), 108% grossSweden: 2.49 score (higher = fewer bans), 132% grossEswatini: -2.63 score (higher = fewer bans), 82% grossSeychelles: 2.08 score (higher = fewer bans), 70.8% grossSyrian Arab Republic: -0.747 score (higher = fewer bans), 38.7% grossChad: 1.34 score (higher = fewer bans), 23.5% grossTogo: 1.13 score (higher = fewer bans), 63.4% grossThailand: 1.14 score (higher = fewer bans), 92.1% grossTajikistan: -0.153 score (higher = fewer bans), 86.9% grossTurkmenistan: -1.98 score (higher = fewer bans), 94.6% grossTimor-Leste: 1.43 score (higher = fewer bans), 84.7% grossTrinidad and Tobago: 1.75 score (higher = fewer bans), 95.7% grossTunisia: 0.902 score (higher = fewer bans), 90.3% grossTurkiye: 1.88 score (higher = fewer bans), 118% grossTanzania: 0.827 score (higher = fewer bans), 28.2% grossUkraine: -0.327 score (higher = fewer bans), 86.2% grossUruguay: 2.28 score (higher = fewer bans), 119% grossUnited States: 2.52 score (higher = fewer bans), 97.5% grossUzbekistan: -1.43 score (higher = fewer bans), 98.1% grossViet Nam: -3.65 score (higher = fewer bans), 93.4% grossVanuatu: 1.94 score (higher = fewer bans), 135% grossSouth Africa: 2.28 score (higher = fewer bans), 104% grossZambia: 1.89 score (higher = fewer bans), 56.8% grossZimbabwe: 1.96 score (higher = fewer bans), 52.4% grossAFGBDICAFCHNFINLAOMDGNLDSAUSOMSWEVNM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.2220.005161
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.3029.8e-5161
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1440.069161
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1490.061161

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 161 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.078 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.121 (without LAO) to +0.162 (without VNM). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: LAO (-0.023).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific21+0.25
Europe & Central Asia48+0.13
Latin America & Caribbean22+0.07
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan19+0.15
Sub-Saharan Africa43+0.22

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third54+0.25
Middle third53-0.08
Richest third54+0.26

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96+0.10
Muslims44+0.14

By last European coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.17
Never a European colony21+0.12
Spain18-0.09
United Kingdom46+0.08

By official ideology

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Nationalist24+0.01
No strong official ideology112+0.18

By party system

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
A few parties banned22+0.45
No parties banned119+0.13

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.181 after dropping 10 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 36years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.054, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose freedom from party bans moved did not tend to see their secondary enrollment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.144for comparison
Within countries+0.115each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.054q = 0.559 · 166 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.014q = 0.778

3,795 country-years (one country in one year), 166 countries, 1990–2025, about 23 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 14% for Freedom from party bans, 13% for Secondary enrollment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Secondary enrollment trails Freedom from party bans →lag -10: r = -0.045 (n = 2,695)lag -9: r = -0.065 (n = 2,823)lag -8: r = -0.071 (n = 2,960)lag -7: r = -0.082 (n = 3,081)lag -6: r = -0.083 (n = 3,204)lag -5: r = -0.077 (n = 3,330)lag -4: r = -0.062 (n = 3,457)lag -3: r = -0.062 (n = 3,576)lag -2: r = -0.058 (n = 3,702)lag -1: r = -0.060 (n = 3,787)lag +0: r = -0.054 (n = 3,795)lag +1: r = -0.046 (n = 3,717)lag +2: r = -0.022 (n = 3,638)lag +3: r = 0.006 (n = 3,557)lag +4: r = 0.029 (n = 3,483)lag +5: r = 0.045 (n = 3,401)lag +6: r = 0.049 (n = 3,334)lag +7: r = 0.056 (n = 3,266)lag +8: r = 0.049 (n = 3,213)lag +9: r = 0.079 (n = 3,157)lag +10: r = 0.105 (n = 3,061)

Same year (lag 0): -0.054. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


score (higher = fewer bans)
% gross		Years
Nepal NPL2.6590.4%2025, 2024
Japan JPN2.61102%2025, 2023
United States USA2.5297.5%2025, 2022
Brazil BRA2.49104%2025, 2024
Sweden SWE2.49132%2025, 2024
Denmark DNK2.47126%2025, 2024
Costa Rica CRI2.45122%2025, 2024
Colombia COL2.45102%2025, 2022
Paraguay PRY2.4179.1%2025, 2024
Dominican Republic DOM2.3876.4%2025, 2024
Canada CAN2.33104%2025, 2023
El Salvador SLV2.3262.1%2025, 2024
North Macedonia MKD2.390.1%2025, 2023
Uruguay URY2.28119%2025, 2023
Chile CHL2.28106%2025, 2024

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset v16, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project; Lindberg, S. I. et al., Varieties of Party Identity and Organization (V-Party) Dataset. Read from the V-Dem Institute's vdemdata package.
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Freedom from party bans

Party bans (higher = fewer parties banned)

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · CC BY-SA 4.0 · updated annual (V-Dem); V-Party per election, to 2019

Are any political parties banned? Experts answer from 0 ("all parties except the state-sponsored party are banned", a one-party state) to 4 ("no parties are officially banned"). V-Dem turns the answers into a score of about -4 to +4. Parties kept off the ballot for missing registration rules do not count as banned. It is one of the parts of V-Dem's freedom of association index, so the two are linked by construction.

Secondary enrollment

School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 17,292 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated V-Dem v16; V-Party v2. How the country data works · explore Freedom from party bans and Secondary enrollment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Freedom from party bans changes Secondary enrollment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Freedom from party bans or Secondary enrollment