placestats

European ancestry vs. Gender Development Index

Fades after adjusting for income

A country is not a person, and ancestry is not destiny. Countries where more people have ancestors from one part of the world also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does notfollow that people with that ancestry are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. Ancestry also goes very closely with region and with history, including colonisation and the Atlantic slave trade, and with national income. So much of what looks like ancestry here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures and the region-by-region view are for. The shares are one estimate, for around the year 2000, of where people’s ancestors lived in 1500, not how anyone identifies.

Across 154 countries, European ancestry and Gender Development Index rise and fall together at r = +0.52 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.20, which could easily be chance (q = 0.14, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of european ancestry, 0% to 98.3% of population, gender development index is 0.0696 ratio of women's HDI to men's higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.0254 ratio of women's HDI to men's.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.515p = 8.2e-12 · 154 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.203p = 0.012 · likely range [+0.05, +0.35]
p, allowing for regions0.035standard error 0.075 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.143across 13,797 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

European ancestry · % of populationlink with income +0.57 · moderate
Gender Development Index · ratio of women's HDI to men'slink with income +0.65 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

European ancestry · % of population →Gender Development Index · ratio of women's HDI to men's →0%100%0.661.04Afghanistan: 12% of population, 0.66 ratio of women's HDI to men'sAngola: 2% of population, 0.906 ratio of women's HDI to men'sAlbania: 100% of population, 0.963 ratio of women's HDI to men'sUnited Arab Emirates: 0% of population, 0.957 ratio of women's HDI to men'sArgentina: 90% of population, 0.988 ratio of women's HDI to men'sArmenia: 100% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sAustralia: 89.6% of population, 0.977 ratio of women's HDI to men'sAustria: 100% of population, 0.985 ratio of women's HDI to men'sAzerbaijan: 99% of population, 0.983 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBurundi: 0% of population, 0.932 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBelgium: 98.4% of population, 0.979 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBenin: 0% of population, 0.866 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBurkina Faso: 0% of population, 0.881 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBangladesh: 0% of population, 0.918 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBulgaria: 100% of population, 1 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBahrain: 0% of population, 0.957 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBosnia and Herzegovina: 100% of population, 0.967 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBelarus: 100% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBelize: 40% of population, 0.981 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBolivia: 26.7% of population, 0.961 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBrazil: 74.4% of population, 1 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBhutan: 0% of population, 0.958 ratio of women's HDI to men'sBotswana: 1.5% of population, 0.997 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCanada: 85.6% of population, 0.991 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSwitzerland: 99.5% of population, 0.977 ratio of women's HDI to men'sChile: 59.3% of population, 0.967 ratio of women's HDI to men'sChina: 0% of population, 0.976 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCote d'Ivoire: 0% of population, 0.91 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCameroon: 0% of population, 0.898 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.46% of population, 0.886 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCongo, Rep.: 0% of population, 0.924 ratio of women's HDI to men'sColombia: 45.6% of population, 0.992 ratio of women's HDI to men'sComoros: 0% of population, 0.929 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCabo Verde: 41.4% of population, 0.964 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCosta Rica: 60.4% of population, 0.975 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCyprus: 100% of population, 0.996 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCzechia: 100% of population, 0.987 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGermany: 100% of population, 0.975 ratio of women's HDI to men'sDenmark: 100% of population, 0.99 ratio of women's HDI to men'sDominican Republic: 52% of population, 1.02 ratio of women's HDI to men'sAlgeria: 0% of population, 0.887 ratio of women's HDI to men'sEcuador: 32% of population, 0.998 ratio of women's HDI to men'sEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0% of population, 0.895 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSpain: 99.7% of population, 0.989 ratio of women's HDI to men'sEstonia: 100% of population, 1.02 ratio of women's HDI to men'sEthiopia: 0% of population, 0.886 ratio of women's HDI to men'sFinland: 100% of population, 0.992 ratio of women's HDI to men'sFiji: 2.2% of population, 0.948 ratio of women's HDI to men'sFrance: 94.2% of population, 0.993 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGabon: 1% of population, 0.994 ratio of women's HDI to men'sUnited Kingdom: 94.6% of population, 0.979 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGeorgia: 100% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGhana: 0% of population, 0.933 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGuinea: 0% of population, 0.828 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGambia, The: 0.5% of population, 0.959 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGuinea-Bissau: 3% of population, 0.878 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGreece: 100% of population, 0.963 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGuatemala: 22% of population, 0.934 ratio of women's HDI to men'sGuyana: 1.3% of population, 0.992 ratio of women's HDI to men'sHong Kong SAR, China: 0% of population, 0.976 ratio of women's HDI to men'sHonduras: 46% of population, 0.964 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCroatia: 100% of population, 0.999 ratio of women's HDI to men'sHaiti: 2.5% of population, 0.932 ratio of women's HDI to men'sHungary: 100% of population, 0.989 ratio of women's HDI to men'sIndonesia: 0% of population, 0.945 ratio of women's HDI to men'sIndia: 0% of population, 0.874 ratio of women's HDI to men'sIreland: 100% of population, 1 ratio of women's HDI to men'sIran, Islamic Rep.: 0% of population, 0.875 ratio of women's HDI to men'sIraq: 5.6% of population, 0.793 ratio of women's HDI to men'sIsrael: 35.6% of population, 0.994 ratio of women's HDI to men'sItaly: 99.8% of population, 0.975 ratio of women's HDI to men'sJamaica: 8% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sJordan: 2% of population, 0.861 ratio of women's HDI to men'sJapan: 0% of population, 0.97 ratio of women's HDI to men'sKazakhstan: 97.9% of population, 1 ratio of women's HDI to men'sKenya: 0% of population, 0.944 ratio of women's HDI to men'sKyrgyz Republic: 98% of population, 0.959 ratio of women's HDI to men'sCambodia: 0% of population, 0.939 ratio of women's HDI to men'sKorea, Rep.: 0% of population, 0.959 ratio of women's HDI to men'sKuwait: 0% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sLao PDR: 0% of population, 0.911 ratio of women's HDI to men'sLebanon: 6.9% of population, 0.992 ratio of women's HDI to men'sLiberia: 0% of population, 0.865 ratio of women's HDI to men'sLibya: 0% of population, 0.955 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSri Lanka: 0% of population, 0.951 ratio of women's HDI to men'sLesotho: 0% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sLithuania: 100% of population, 1.02 ratio of women's HDI to men'sLuxembourg: 99.2% of population, 0.996 ratio of women's HDI to men'sLatvia: 100% of population, 1.03 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMorocco: 8% of population, 0.859 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMoldova: 100% of population, 1.03 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMadagascar: 0.6% of population, 0.934 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMexico: 30% of population, 0.976 ratio of women's HDI to men'sNorth Macedonia: 100% of population, 0.955 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMali: 0% of population, 0.812 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMalta: 4.2% of population, 0.977 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMyanmar: 0% of population, 0.947 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMongolia: 1.8% of population, 1.03 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMozambique: 0% of population, 0.92 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMauritania: 0% of population, 0.886 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMauritius: 16% of population, 0.971 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMalawi: 0% of population, 0.925 ratio of women's HDI to men'sMalaysia: 0% of population, 0.973 ratio of women's HDI to men'sNamibia: 10.8% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sNiger: 0% of population, 0.855 ratio of women's HDI to men'sNigeria: 0% of population, 0.892 ratio of women's HDI to men'sNicaragua: 51% of population, 0.952 ratio of women's HDI to men'sNetherlands: 96.6% of population, 0.971 ratio of women's HDI to men'sNorway: 100% of population, 0.995 ratio of women's HDI to men'sNepal: 0% of population, 0.858 ratio of women's HDI to men'sNew Zealand: 80.6% of population, 0.973 ratio of women's HDI to men'sOman: 0% of population, 0.945 ratio of women's HDI to men'sPakistan: 0% of population, 0.838 ratio of women's HDI to men'sPanama: 45.2% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sPeru: 28% of population, 0.959 ratio of women's HDI to men'sPhilippines: 0% of population, 0.984 ratio of women's HDI to men'sPapua New Guinea: 0% of population, 0.926 ratio of women's HDI to men'sPoland: 100% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sPortugal: 98.4% of population, 1 ratio of women's HDI to men'sParaguay: 52.9% of population, 0.988 ratio of women's HDI to men'sQatar: 0.9% of population, 1.04 ratio of women's HDI to men'sRomania: 100% of population, 0.986 ratio of women's HDI to men'sRussian Federation: 100% of population, 1.02 ratio of women's HDI to men'sRwanda: 0% of population, 0.922 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSaudi Arabia: 0% of population, 0.931 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSudan: 0% of population, 0.813 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSenegal: 1.3% of population, 0.924 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSingapore: 0.5% of population, 0.994 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSierra Leone: 0% of population, 0.83 ratio of women's HDI to men'sEl Salvador: 50% of population, 0.983 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0% of population, 0.793 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSlovak Republic: 100% of population, 0.999 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSlovenia: 100% of population, 0.997 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSweden: 99.3% of population, 0.988 ratio of women's HDI to men'sEswatini: 2.8% of population, 0.964 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSyrian Arab Republic: 5.2% of population, 0.787 ratio of women's HDI to men'sChad: 0% of population, 0.787 ratio of women's HDI to men'sTogo: 0% of population, 0.865 ratio of women's HDI to men'sThailand: 0% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sTajikistan: 100% of population, 0.926 ratio of women's HDI to men'sTimor-Leste: 0% of population, 0.939 ratio of women's HDI to men'sTrinidad and Tobago: 7.1% of population, 0.99 ratio of women's HDI to men'sTunisia: 0% of population, 0.931 ratio of women's HDI to men'sTurkiye: 99.3% of population, 0.938 ratio of women's HDI to men'sTanzania: 0% of population, 0.951 ratio of women's HDI to men'sUganda: 0% of population, 0.908 ratio of women's HDI to men'sUkraine: 100% of population, 1.04 ratio of women's HDI to men'sUruguay: 92% of population, 1.02 ratio of women's HDI to men'sUnited States: 76.2% of population, 1.01 ratio of women's HDI to men'sUzbekistan: 99% of population, 0.951 ratio of women's HDI to men'sViet Nam: 0% of population, 0.997 ratio of women's HDI to men'sSouth Africa: 18% of population, 0.996 ratio of women's HDI to men'sZambia: 1% of population, 0.949 ratio of women's HDI to men'sZimbabwe: 1% of population, 0.944 ratio of women's HDI to men'sAFGIRQKWTLVAMDAMNGQATSOMSYRTCDUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5158.2e-12154
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.6191.2e-17154
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2030.012154
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3916.0e-7154

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 154 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.312 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.185 (without UKR) to +0.241 (without AFG). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: AFG (+0.038).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific19-0.09
Europe & Central Asia44+0.19
Latin America & Caribbean22+0.24
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20+0.03
Sub-Saharan Africa42+0.15

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third52+0.13
Middle third51+0.27
Richest third51+0.32

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians89+0.19
Muslims44+0.29

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.09
Never a European colony20+0.36
Spain18+0.29
United Kingdom46+0.08

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.276 after dropping 7 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of population

ratio of women's HDI to men's
Years
Ukraine UKR100%1.042000, 2023
Tajikistan TJK100%0.9262000, 2023
Slovenia SVN100%0.9972000, 2023
Slovak Republic SVK100%0.9992000, 2023
Russian Federation RUS100%1.022000, 2023
Romania ROU100%0.9862000, 2023
Poland POL100%1.012000, 2023
Norway NOR100%0.9952000, 2023
North Macedonia MKD100%0.9552000, 2023
Moldova MDA100%1.032000, 2023
Latvia LVA100%1.032000, 2023
Lithuania LTU100%1.022000, 2023
Ireland IRL100%12000, 2023
Hungary HUN100%0.9892000, 2023
Croatia HRV100%0.9992000, 2023

Putterman, L. and Weil, D. N. (2010), 'Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality', Quarterly Journal of Economics 125(4); World Migration Matrix version 1.1 (2009).
United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025

Sources

European ancestry

European and Central Asian ancestry (share of the population)

Louis Putterman and David N. Weil, Brown University · No licence stated; used with citation · updated one edition (version 1.1, 2009)

The estimated share of today's population whose ancestors in the year 1500 lived in Europe or Central Asia (the World Bank's Europe & Central Asia region, which includes Turkey, the Caucasus and Central Asia). This is the closest thing to race shares that can be compared across countries: national censuses each use their own race and ethnic categories, and most countries record none. It is about where people's ancestors lived, not how anyone identifies, and it is one estimate for around the year 2000, built from history, migration records and genetic studies. Every country's six ancestry shares add up to 100%, so they are linked to each other by arithmetic. No "better" direction is set.

Gender Development Index

Gender Development Index

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

The HDI worked out for women divided by the HDI worked out for men. It is above 1 where women score higher, as they do in several countries on health. So no "better" direction is set: equality is the aim, and equality is the middle of the scale, not one end of it.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2000–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 13,797 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore European ancestry and Gender Development Index

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that European ancestry changes Gender Development Index, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with European ancestry or Gender Development Index