Across 167 countries, CO2 per capita and Governance score rise and fall together at r = +0.02 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). There is almost no link to explain.
Comparing countries across the middle half of co2 per capita, 0.767 to 5.39 t CO2e per capita, governance score is better by 0.0134 typical gaps at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap reverses, to 0.314 typical gaps the other way.
Link before adjusting (r)+0.019p = 0.812 · 167 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.401p = 8.8e-8 · likely range [-0.52, -0.26]
p, allowing for regions0.004standard error 0.090 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.046across 12,497 pairs
How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.
CO2 per capita · t CO2e per capitalink with income +0.82 · proxy
Governance score · typical gaps (standard deviations)link with income +0.53 · moderate
“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.
Every country as a dot
best-fit line line after adjusting
Four ways to measure the link
Method
r
p
Countries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted
+0.019
0.812
167
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted
+0.327
1.6e-5
167
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income
-0.401
8.8e-8
167
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income
-0.359
2.0e-6
167
The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 167 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.382 (a minus sign means it grew).
How solid is it?
Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.427 (without TTO) to -0.372 (without BHR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BHR (+0.028).
Fragile: this link may not hold up.
correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed
direction is not consistent across regions
Within each region
Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.
n
r
East Asia & Pacific
21
+0.26
Europe & Central Asia
46
-0.59
Latin America & Caribbean
25
+0.11
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
21
-0.67
Sub-Saharan Africa
46
+0.19
By income third
If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.
n
r
Poorest third
56
-0.22
Middle third
55
-0.47
Richest third
56
-0.63
By largest religious group
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
Christians
99
-0.01
Muslims
47
-0.34
By last european coloniser
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
France
25
-0.34
Never a European colony
21
-0.29
Spain
19
-0.15
United Kingdom
51
-0.39
Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.213 after dropping 12 countries.
Two series, one country
Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.
Loading…
Over time, within countries
Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.
Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.
The data
t CO2e per capita
typical gaps (standard deviations)
Years
Qatar QAT
47.3
-0.908
2024, 2025
Bahrain BHR
23.9
-1.05
2024, 2025
Kuwait KWT
23.7
-0.696
2024, 2025
Trinidad and Tobago TTO
19.6
1.03
2024, 2025
Oman OMN
18.7
-0.665
2024, 2025
Saudi Arabia SAU
18.5
-1.14
2024, 2025
United Arab Emirates ARE
18.3
-0.981
2024, 2025
Australia AUS
14.1
1.38
2024, 2025
Canada CAN
14
1.36
2024, 2025
Russian Federation RUS
14
-1.14
2024, 2025
United States USA
13.6
0.998
2024, 2025
Kazakhstan KAZ
12.6
-0.796
2024, 2025
Korea, Rep. KOR
11.4
1.05
2024, 2025
Turkmenistan TKM
10.9
-1.39
2024, 2025
Luxembourg LUX
10.6
1.38
2024, 2025
World Bank, World Development Indicators fh; un_sdg; vdem; wdi; wgi
PlaceStats · via PlaceStats · Derived work; each member keeps its own licence · updated recomputed with the panel
The average of 19 measures from 5 publishers. Each measure is first put on a common scale: 0 is the average country in an average year, and 1 is a typical gap between countries (a standard deviation). Each is turned so that higher is better. Measures are averaged within each publisher first, so a publisher with many measures does not count for more. Members: Civil liberties (FH), Political rights (FH), Pre-trial detainee share, Civil society participation, Political corruption, Electoral democracy, Freedom of association, Freedom of expression, Free and fair elections, Liberal democracy, Participatory democracy, Political civil liberties, Birth registration, Control of corruption, Government effectiveness, Political stability, Rule of law, Regulatory quality, Voice and accountability.
How this was computed
Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2011–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore CO2 per capita and Governance score
This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that CO2 per capita changes Governance score, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.
More links with CO2 per capita or Governance score