placestats

Christian share vs. Health spending

Holds up after adjusting for income

A country is not a person. Countries where more people are counted as belonging to this group also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does not follow that the people in the group are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. It is the most common misuse of this kind of data. Religion also varies strongly with region, history and national income, so much of what looks religious here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures are for. The religion shares are estimates for two years only, and the survey questions are asked in rounds that can be ten years apart.

Across 177 countries, Christian share and Health spending rise and fall together at r = +0.27 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.27, q = 0.046, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of christian share, 8.33% to 87.5% of population, health spending is 1.65% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.62% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.270p = 0.000 · 177 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.274p = 0.000 · likely range [+0.13, +0.41]
p, allowing for regions0.004standard error 0.062 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.046across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Christian share · % of populationlink with income -0.01 · independent
Health spending · % of GDPlink with income +0.29 · independent

Neither of these is closely tied to national income, so adjusting for income is a real test here, not a formality.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Christian share · % of population →Health spending · % of GDP →0.0194%99.5%1.33%16.7%Afghanistan: 0.0194% of population, 15% of GDPAngola: 93% of population, 2.55% of GDPAlbania: 17.8% of population, 7.05% of GDPUnited Arab Emirates: 14.3% of population, 4.97% of GDPArgentina: 88.5% of population, 10.3% of GDPArmenia: 97.3% of population, 9.32% of GDPAustralia: 46.8% of population, 10.4% of GDPAustria: 68.2% of population, 11.8% of GDPAzerbaijan: 0.42% of population, 4.27% of GDPBurundi: 95% of population, 9.09% of GDPBelgium: 51% of population, 10.8% of GDPBenin: 53.2% of population, 3.34% of GDPBurkina Faso: 28% of population, 7.8% of GDPBangladesh: 0.3% of population, 2.17% of GDPBulgaria: 79.5% of population, 7.92% of GDPBahrain: 13.7% of population, 4% of GDPBahamas, The: 97.6% of population, 6.3% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 44.7% of population, 8.92% of GDPBelarus: 85.1% of population, 7.08% of GDPBelize: 74.4% of population, 4.15% of GDPBolivia: 88.9% of population, 6.92% of GDPBrazil: 80.7% of population, 9.73% of GDPBarbados: 77.3% of population, 5.4% of GDPBrunei Darussalam: 6.69% of population, 2.23% of GDPBhutan: 0.55% of population, 4.42% of GDPBotswana: 82.3% of population, 6.26% of GDPCentral African Republic: 90.7% of population, 10.7% of GDPCanada: 53.3% of population, 11.3% of GDPSwitzerland: 61.6% of population, 11.7% of GDPChile: 68.3% of population, 10.5% of GDPChina: 1.78% of population, 5.94% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 44.9% of population, 3.43% of GDPCameroon: 69.8% of population, 4.55% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 96.3% of population, 3.68% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 92.2% of population, 3.3% of GDPColombia: 86.2% of population, 8.14% of GDPComoros: 0.51% of population, 6.55% of GDPCabo Verde: 78.3% of population, 5.85% of GDPCosta Rica: 87.9% of population, 6.87% of GDPCyprus: 67.7% of population, 8.12% of GDPCzechia: 26.4% of population, 8.51% of GDPGermany: 56.2% of population, 12.3% of GDPDjibouti: 1.1% of population, 2.28% of GDPDenmark: 76.9% of population, 9.39% of GDPDominican Republic: 77.6% of population, 4.6% of GDPAlgeria: 0.295% of population, 4.35% of GDPEcuador: 88.5% of population, 7.56% of GDPEgypt, Arab Rep.: 4.82% of population, 4.88% of GDPSpain: 69.5% of population, 9.22% of GDPEstonia: 52.6% of population, 7.84% of GDPEthiopia: 61.6% of population, 2.8% of GDPFinland: 72.3% of population, 10.5% of GDPFiji: 69.5% of population, 3.62% of GDPFrance: 46.5% of population, 11.5% of GDPMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 98.8% of population, 12.9% of GDPGabon: 83.7% of population, 3.13% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 49.4% of population, 11.1% of GDPGeorgia: 88.2% of population, 6.86% of GDPGhana: 71.3% of population, 2.95% of GDPGuinea: 11.7% of population, 3.69% of GDPGambia, The: 2.89% of population, 2.89% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 21.7% of population, 8.82% of GDPEquatorial Guinea: 88.7% of population, 3.5% of GDPGreece: 89.5% of population, 8.39% of GDPGrenada: 87.5% of population, 4.65% of GDPGuatemala: 92% of population, 6.8% of GDPGuyana: 65.9% of population, 2.47% of GDPHonduras: 88.5% of population, 7.71% of GDPCroatia: 90.9% of population, 7.15% of GDPHaiti: 88.7% of population, 3.19% of GDPHungary: 72.4% of population, 6.37% of GDPIndonesia: 10.3% of population, 2.7% of GDPIndia: 2.21% of population, 3.34% of GDPIreland: 81.2% of population, 6.85% of GDPIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.143% of population, 6.03% of GDPIraq: 0.375% of population, 5.53% of GDPIceland: 74.9% of population, 8.98% of GDPIsrael: 1.88% of population, 7.1% of GDPItaly: 80.5% of population, 8.44% of GDPJamaica: 68.6% of population, 7.6% of GDPJordan: 2.81% of population, 7.66% of GDPJapan: 2.25% of population, 10.7% of GDPKazakhstan: 19.3% of population, 3.77% of GDPKenya: 85.7% of population, 4.35% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 5.75% of population, 4.5% of GDPCambodia: 0.316% of population, 4.62% of GDPKiribati: 97.6% of population, 10.9% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 32% of population, 8.68% of GDPKuwait: 10.5% of population, 4.96% of GDPLao PDR: 1.54% of population, 1.33% of GDPLebanon: 27.9% of population, 5.57% of GDPLiberia: 85.2% of population, 13% of GDPLibya: 0.525% of population, 7.81% of GDPSt. Lucia: 91.7% of population, 4.73% of GDPSri Lanka: 5.59% of population, 3.68% of GDPLesotho: 97.3% of population, 12.6% of GDPLithuania: 92.2% of population, 7.6% of GDPLuxembourg: 65.9% of population, 5.89% of GDPLatvia: 77.3% of population, 7.28% of GDPMorocco: 0.0855% of population, 6.06% of GDPMoldova: 99.5% of population, 6.74% of GDPMadagascar: 74.2% of population, 3.43% of GDPMaldives: 1.65% of population, 9.25% of GDPMexico: 89.2% of population, 5.5% of GDPNorth Macedonia: 64.7% of population, 7.43% of GDPMali: 2.57% of population, 3.81% of GDPMalta: 88.6% of population, 8.84% of GDPMyanmar: 6.14% of population, 4.46% of GDPMontenegro: 76% of population, 9.65% of GDPMongolia: 1.34% of population, 6.07% of GDPMozambique: 61.3% of population, 8.5% of GDPMauritania: 0.234% of population, 4.34% of GDPMauritius: 32.9% of population, 5.57% of GDPMalawi: 87.4% of population, 6.53% of GDPMalaysia: 9.15% of population, 3.96% of GDPNamibia: 90.5% of population, 9.48% of GDPNiger: 0.556% of population, 4.05% of GDPNigeria: 43.4% of population, 4.19% of GDPNicaragua: 84.8% of population, 8.3% of GDPNetherlands: 35.1% of population, 10% of GDPNorway: 71.4% of population, 9.43% of GDPNepal: 1.76% of population, 6.16% of GDPNew Zealand: 40.3% of population, 10.1% of GDPOman: 8.07% of population, 3.49% of GDPPakistan: 1.27% of population, 2.52% of GDPPanama: 91.2% of population, 8.33% of GDPPeru: 94.5% of population, 5.64% of GDPPhilippines: 91.5% of population, 5.1% of GDPPapua New Guinea: 99.1% of population, 2.87% of GDPPoland: 91.2% of population, 8.06% of GDPPortugal: 85.1% of population, 10.2% of GDPParaguay: 93.5% of population, 8.36% of GDPWest Bank and Gaza: 1% of population, 10.7% of GDPQatar: 12.5% of population, 2.52% of GDPRomania: 98.5% of population, 5.71% of GDPRussian Federation: 69.9% of population, 7.04% of GDPRwanda: 97% of population, 5.13% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 4.38% of population, 5.69% of GDPSudan: 0.488% of population, 2.85% of GDPSenegal: 2.4% of population, 4.32% of GDPSingapore: 18.8% of population, 4.49% of GDPSolomon Islands: 95% of population, 5.36% of GDPSierra Leone: 19.8% of population, 4.72% of GDPEl Salvador: 87.1% of population, 9.29% of GDPSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.0262% of population, 3.74% of GDPSerbia: 91.5% of population, 8.03% of GDPSao Tome and Principe: 84.4% of population, 5.77% of GDPSuriname: 52.8% of population, 5.41% of GDPSlovak Republic: 73.7% of population, 7.35% of GDPSlovenia: 65.4% of population, 9.88% of GDPSweden: 60.8% of population, 11.2% of GDPEswatini: 93.2% of population, 7.5% of GDPSeychelles: 94% of population, 4.48% of GDPSyrian Arab Republic: 3.84% of population, 2.71% of GDPChad: 38.9% of population, 5% of GDPTogo: 56.9% of population, 6.11% of GDPThailand: 1.03% of population, 4.54% of GDPTajikistan: 1% of population, 7.44% of GDPTurkmenistan: 5.62% of population, 5.5% of GDPTimor-Leste: 99.5% of population, 9.6% of GDPTonga: 97.8% of population, 7.36% of GDPTrinidad and Tobago: 70% of population, 7.53% of GDPTunisia: 0.247% of population, 7.99% of GDPTurkiye: 0.136% of population, 4.28% of GDPTanzania: 64.7% of population, 3.05% of GDPUganda: 87.7% of population, 4.24% of GDPUkraine: 83.4% of population, 8.2% of GDPUruguay: 44.5% of population, 9.02% of GDPUnited States: 64% of population, 16.7% of GDPUzbekistan: 2.78% of population, 6.74% of GDPSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 86.3% of population, 4.44% of GDPViet Nam: 8.33% of population, 4.56% of GDPVanuatu: 83.5% of population, 4.12% of GDPSamoa: 97.6% of population, 6.78% of GDPSouth Africa: 85.3% of population, 8.91% of GDPZambia: 98.3% of population, 5.98% of GDPZimbabwe: 87.2% of population, 2.93% of GDPAFGAGOBGDCOGDJIFSMLAOLSOPNGPSEUSA

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.2700.000177
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.2370.001177
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2740.000177
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2580.001177

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 177 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.004 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.262 (without FSM) to +0.316 (without AFG). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: AFG (+0.041).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific25+0.43
Europe & Central Asia48+0.16
Latin America & Caribbean28-0.01
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.28
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.33

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third59+0.21
Middle third59+0.30
Richest third59+0.33

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians108-0.09
Muslims49+0.02

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.03
Never a European colony21+0.19
Spain20+0.07
United Kingdom58+0.32

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.321 after dropping 2 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of population
% of GDP		Years
Timor-Leste TLS99.5%9.6%2020, 2023
Moldova MDA99.5%6.74%2020, 2023
Papua New Guinea PNG99.1%2.87%2020, 2023
Micronesia, Fed. Sts. FSM98.8%12.9%2020, 2023
Romania ROU98.5%5.71%2020, 2023
Zambia ZMB98.3%5.98%2020, 2023
Tonga TON97.8%7.36%2020, 2023
Samoa WSM97.6%6.78%2020, 2023
Bahamas, The BHS97.6%6.3%2020, 2023
Kiribati KIR97.6%10.9%2020, 2023
Lesotho LSO97.3%12.6%2020, 2023
Armenia ARM97.3%9.32%2020, 2023
Rwanda RWA97%5.13%2020, 2023
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD96.3%3.68%2020, 2023
Solomon Islands SLB95%5.36%2020, 2023

Pew Research Center, Religious Composition by Country, 2010-2020. Pew Research Center bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of the data presented here.
World Bank, World Development Indicators
One of these measures is published under a licence that forbids changes. Values are shown exactly as published and must not be republished in a changed or rescaled form.

Sources

Christian share

Share of the population identifying as Christian

Pew Research Center · via Our World in Data · Pew Research Center terms of use, excerpts with attribution · updated decennial · comparable from 2010 only

All Christian traditions together. The world's largest religion, and the one whose spread most closely follows income. Adjusting for GDP is there to remove that. No "better" direction is set.

Health spending

Current health expenditure (% of GDP)

World Health Organization Global Health Expenditure Database · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2020–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Christian share and Health spending

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Christian share changes Health spending, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Christian share or Health spending