placestats

Child stunting vs. Labor share of income

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 110 countries, Child stunting and Labor share of income rise and fall together at r = -0.10 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). There is almost no link to explain.

Comparing countries across the middle half of labor share of income, 40.1% to 56.7% of GDP, child stunting is better by 1.59% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2.75% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.096p = 0.316 · 110 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.270p = 0.005 · likely range [-0.44, -0.09]
p, allowing for regions0.005standard error 0.063 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.038across 18,622 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Child stunting · % of children under 5link with income -0.80 · proxy
Labor share of income · % of GDPlink with income +0.08 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Child stunting · % of children under 5 →Labor share of income · % of GDP →1%55.3%16.4%75.1%Angola: 47.7% of children under 5, 22.3% of GDPAlbania: 7.4% of children under 5, 70.5% of GDPArgentina: 10.7% of children under 5, 52.8% of GDPArmenia: 6.2% of children under 5, 50.9% of GDPAustralia: 3.1% of children under 5, 54.6% of GDPAzerbaijan: 6.8% of children under 5, 39.2% of GDPBurundi: 55.3% of children under 5, 60.6% of GDPBelgium: 2.6% of children under 5, 58.6% of GDPBenin: 33.2% of children under 5, 61.7% of GDPBurkina Faso: 19.5% of children under 5, 42.6% of GDPBulgaria: 5.5% of children under 5, 51.7% of GDPBahrain: 4.6% of children under 5, 29.4% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 7.9% of children under 5, 67.1% of GDPBelarus: 1.1% of children under 5, 57% of GDPBolivia: 10.7% of children under 5, 49.8% of GDPBrazil: 8.9% of children under 5, 51.1% of GDPBarbados: 5.8% of children under 5, 75.1% of GDPBotswana: 21% of children under 5, 27.8% of GDPCentral African Republic: 38.9% of children under 5, 16.4% of GDPChile: 1.7% of children under 5, 44% of GDPChina: 4.5% of children under 5, 56.1% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 20.3% of children under 5, 33.2% of GDPCameroon: 27.2% of children under 5, 64.4% of GDPColombia: 11.6% of children under 5, 47.8% of GDPCabo Verde: 5.3% of children under 5, 62.6% of GDPCosta Rica: 10.6% of children under 5, 53.1% of GDPCzechia: 2.4% of children under 5, 51.2% of GDPGermany: 2.2% of children under 5, 63.7% of GDPDjibouti: 20.9% of children under 5, 63.4% of GDPDominican Republic: 5.6% of children under 5, 42.7% of GDPEcuador: 17.7% of children under 5, 53% of GDPEgypt, Arab Rep.: 12.9% of children under 5, 36.2% of GDPEstonia: 1.3% of children under 5, 60.7% of GDPFinland: 1.7% of children under 5, 58.3% of GDPFiji: 7.2% of children under 5, 48.9% of GDPGabon: 13.7% of children under 5, 27.5% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 3.5% of children under 5, 59.5% of GDPGeorgia: 4.7% of children under 5, 46.7% of GDPGuinea: 26.6% of children under 5, 42.2% of GDPGreece: 2% of children under 5, 54% of GDPGuatemala: 44.6% of children under 5, 46.9% of GDPHonduras: 17.9% of children under 5, 54.7% of GDPIndonesia: 22.6% of children under 5, 50.9% of GDPIndia: 32.9% of children under 5, 53.3% of GDPIreland: 2.2% of children under 5, 30.9% of GDPIran, Islamic Rep.: 4.8% of children under 5, 39.3% of GDPIraq: 9.4% of children under 5, 29.6% of GDPJamaica: 6.9% of children under 5, 60.9% of GDPJordan: 7.7% of children under 5, 49.3% of GDPJapan: 5.2% of children under 5, 58.7% of GDPKazakhstan: 4.4% of children under 5, 37.3% of GDPKenya: 17.9% of children under 5, 54% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 11% of children under 5, 40% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 1.8% of children under 5, 54.6% of GDPKuwait: 4.5% of children under 5, 24.9% of GDPLao PDR: 29.9% of children under 5, 39.8% of GDPLebanon: 10.1% of children under 5, 44.5% of GDPSri Lanka: 10.1% of children under 5, 38.1% of GDPLesotho: 35% of children under 5, 66.1% of GDPLithuania: 1.6% of children under 5, 57.1% of GDPLatvia: 1.7% of children under 5, 62.2% of GDPMorocco: 13.7% of children under 5, 46.5% of GDPMoldova: 4.2% of children under 5, 51.3% of GDPMexico: 13.1% of children under 5, 38.1% of GDPNorth Macedonia: 3.8% of children under 5, 52.5% of GDPMalta: 3.5% of children under 5, 45.9% of GDPMongolia: 7.1% of children under 5, 40.6% of GDPMozambique: 37% of children under 5, 54% of GDPMauritania: 21.5% of children under 5, 40.4% of GDPMauritius: 7.8% of children under 5, 45.6% of GDPMalaysia: 24.3% of children under 5, 39.7% of GDPNamibia: 16.4% of children under 5, 52.9% of GDPNiger: 48.3% of children under 5, 39.1% of GDPNigeria: 33.8% of children under 5, 31.2% of GDPNetherlands: 1.6% of children under 5, 55.9% of GDPOman: 12.9% of children under 5, 30.3% of GDPPanama: 14% of children under 5, 32.8% of GDPPeru: 10.6% of children under 5, 40.1% of GDPPhilippines: 27.7% of children under 5, 44.9% of GDPPoland: 1% of children under 5, 54.8% of GDPPortugal: 3.2% of children under 5, 61.7% of GDPParaguay: 3.2% of children under 5, 44.5% of GDPQatar: 5.4% of children under 5, 17.7% of GDPRomania: 7% of children under 5, 50% of GDPRwanda: 29.8% of children under 5, 74.1% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 11.1% of children under 5, 28% of GDPSudan: 35.4% of children under 5, 63.5% of GDPSenegal: 17.2% of children under 5, 52.3% of GDPSingapore: 2.8% of children under 5, 43.9% of GDPSierra Leone: 25.2% of children under 5, 59.6% of GDPEl Salvador: 9.4% of children under 5, 52.1% of GDPSerbia: 4.6% of children under 5, 63.7% of GDPSao Tome and Principe: 10% of children under 5, 73.8% of GDPSuriname: 8% of children under 5, 45.8% of GDPEswatini: 18.9% of children under 5, 61.2% of GDPChad: 31.5% of children under 5, 48.5% of GDPTogo: 23% of children under 5, 50.1% of GDPThailand: 12.3% of children under 5, 43.8% of GDPTajikistan: 13.1% of children under 5, 43.6% of GDPTrinidad and Tobago: 7.8% of children under 5, 33.8% of GDPTunisia: 8.9% of children under 5, 56.1% of GDPTurkiye: 5.5% of children under 5, 42.6% of GDPTanzania: 29.9% of children under 5, 58.3% of GDPUkraine: 11.7% of children under 5, 55.8% of GDPUruguay: 6.5% of children under 5, 51.9% of GDPUnited States: 4.2% of children under 5, 56.8% of GDPUzbekistan: 6.7% of children under 5, 37.9% of GDPSouth Africa: 24.4% of children under 5, 54.3% of GDPZambia: 32.3% of children under 5, 30% of GDPZimbabwe: 23.7% of children under 5, 53.3% of GDPAGOALBBDIBRBCAFIRLKWTLSONERQATRWASTP

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.0960.316110
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.1540.109110
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2700.005110
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3230.001110

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 110 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.174 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.296 (without BDI) to -0.211 (without AGO). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: AGO (+0.059).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific12-0.50
Europe & Central Asia30-0.19
Latin America & Caribbean20-0.22
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan14+0.09
Sub-Saharan Africa31-0.37

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third37-0.28
Middle third36-0.11
Richest third37-0.53

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians64-0.34
Muslims33-0.22

By last European coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France16-0.07
Never a European colony16-0.57
Spain17-0.13
United Kingdom29-0.21

By official ideology

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Nationalist15-0.25
No strong official ideology76-0.28

By party system

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
A few parties banned17+0.17
No parties banned82-0.36

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.221 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 24years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.038, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose child stunting moved did not tend to see their labor share of income move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.270for comparison
Within countries+0.100each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.038q = 0.723 · 111 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.007q = 0.847
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

2,664 country-years (one country in one year), 111 countries, 2000–2023, about 24 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 8% for Child stunting, 8% for Labor share of income. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Labor share of income trails Child stunting →lag -10: r = 0.035 (n = 2,775)lag -9: r = 0.033 (n = 2,775)lag -8: r = 0.035 (n = 2,775)lag -7: r = 0.040 (n = 2,775)lag -6: r = 0.053 (n = 2,775)lag -5: r = 0.058 (n = 2,775)lag -4: r = 0.057 (n = 2,775)lag -3: r = 0.051 (n = 2,775)lag -2: r = 0.046 (n = 2,775)lag -1: r = 0.040 (n = 2,775)lag +0: r = 0.038 (n = 2,664)lag +1: r = 0.028 (n = 2,553)lag +2: r = 0.021 (n = 2,442)lag +3: r = 0.012 (n = 2,331)lag +4: r = 0.002 (n = 2,220)lag +5: r = 0.001 (n = 2,109)lag +6: r = -0.001 (n = 1,998)lag +7: r = 0.006 (n = 1,887)lag +8: r = 0.023 (n = 1,776)lag +9: r = 0.042 (n = 1,665)lag +10: r = 0.055 (n = 1,554)

Same year (lag 0): +0.038. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of children under 5
% of GDP		Years
Burundi BDI55.3%60.6%2024, 2023
Niger NER48.3%39.1%2024, 2023
Angola AGO47.7%22.3%2024, 2023
Guatemala GTM44.6%46.9%2024, 2023
Central African Republic CAF38.9%16.4%2024, 2023
Mozambique MOZ37%54%2024, 2023
Sudan SDN35.4%63.5%2024, 2023
Lesotho LSO35%66.1%2024, 2023
Nigeria NGA33.8%31.2%2024, 2023
Benin BEN33.2%61.7%2024, 2023
India IND32.9%53.3%2024, 2023
Zambia ZMB32.3%30%2024, 2023
Chad TCD31.5%48.5%2024, 2023
Tanzania TZA29.9%58.3%2024, 2023
Lao PDR LAO29.9%39.8%2024, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2015), "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table", American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182, www.ggdc.net/pwt. Data: Penn World Table version 11.0, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, doi:10.34894/FABVLR.

Sources

Child stunting

Prevalence of stunting, height for age, modelled estimate (% of children under 5)

UNICEF, WHO and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

An estimate from a statistical model. The agencies fit a model to household surveys and predict every country and year. So this is smoother than the surveys behind it, and it has values for years nobody measured. The survey-only series never reaches sixty countries in any year.

Labor share of income

Labor share of GDP (Penn World Table)

Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen · via DataverseNL · CC BY 4.0 · updated irregular (new versions every few years)

The share of a country's income (GDP) that is paid to people for their work: wages, salaries and benefits, plus an estimate of what the self-employed, such as farmers and shopkeepers, earn for their work. The rest goes to the owners of land, buildings and machines as profit, rent and interest. Where there is little data on the self-employed, the Penn World Table fills in a value by a fixed rule, so figures for poorer countries are rougher, and a few countries show the same value every year. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2023–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 18,622 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated V-Dem v16; V-Party v2. How the country data works · explore Child stunting and Labor share of income

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Child stunting changes Labor share of income, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Child stunting or Labor share of income