placestats

Capital per worker vs. Median age

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 170 countries, Capital per worker and Median age rise and fall together at r = +0.70 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.02, which could easily be chance (q = 0.93, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: sign flips when a single country is removed.

Comparing countries across the middle half of capital per worker, $77,621 to $435,583, median age is 9.68 years higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.299 years.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.705p = 7.9e-27 · 170 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.024p = 0.754 · likely range [-0.13, +0.17]
p, allowing for regions0.872standard error 0.145 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.930across 18,622 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Capital per worker · 2021 international $ per workerlink with income +0.93 · proxy
Median age · yearslink with income +0.86 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Capital per worker · 2021 international $ per worker →Median age · years →$4,669$1,365,08014.349Aruba: $467,663, 41 yearsAngola: $40,771, 16.5 yearsAlbania: $224,756, 36.3 yearsUnited Arab Emirates: $960,197, 31.2 yearsArgentina: $217,740, 32.1 yearsArmenia: $215,201, 35.8 yearsAustralia: $588,436, 37.8 yearsAustria: $691,757, 43.1 yearsAzerbaijan: $103,789, 32.6 yearsBurundi: $5,029, 15.9 yearsBelgium: $788,016, 41.4 yearsBenin: $35,283, 17.8 yearsBurkina Faso: $14,647, 17.3 yearsBangladesh: $75,955, 25.3 yearsBulgaria: $174,610, 44.3 yearsBahrain: $656,018, 32.9 yearsBahamas, The: $383,629, 34.6 yearsBosnia and Herzegovina: $261,176, 44.9 yearsBelarus: $354,810, 40.5 yearsBelize: $78,567, 25.9 yearsBermuda: $354,432, 45.1 yearsBolivia: $53,381, 24.7 yearsBrazil: $172,608, 33.9 yearsBarbados: $213,881, 38.9 yearsBrunei Darussalam: $1,365,080, 31.8 yearsBhutan: $236,135, 29.4 yearsBotswana: $179,626, 22.9 yearsCentral African Republic: $26,131, 14.3 yearsCanada: $524,837, 40.3 yearsSwitzerland: $713,606, 42.3 yearsChile: $243,644, 36 yearsChina: $228,804, 39.1 yearsCote d'Ivoire: $40,246, 18.1 yearsCameroon: $32,971, 17.8 yearsCongo, Dem. Rep.: $10,352, 15.8 yearsCongo, Rep.: $142,120, 18.3 yearsColombia: $133,012, 31.6 yearsComoros: $61,490, 20.3 yearsCabo Verde: $108,256, 27.9 yearsCosta Rica: $199,425, 34.1 yearsCayman Islands: $444,029, 37.9 yearsCyprus: $598,680, 37.8 yearsCzechia: $532,563, 42.7 yearsGermany: $456,143, 45.1 yearsDjibouti: $140,439, 24.4 yearsDenmark: $624,134, 41.2 yearsDominican Republic: $248,222, 27.7 yearsAlgeria: $250,240, 28.2 yearsEcuador: $173,936, 28.4 yearsEgypt, Arab Rep.: $111,080, 24 yearsSpain: $645,774, 44.9 yearsEstonia: $440,113, 41.9 yearsEthiopia: $15,427, 18.7 yearsFinland: $666,233, 42.8 yearsFiji: $98,132, 27.7 yearsFrance: $697,343, 41.8 yearsGabon: $159,764, 21.5 yearsUnited Kingdom: $512,292, 39.8 yearsGeorgia: $431,753, 36.8 yearsGhana: $46,135, 20.9 yearsGuinea: $22,150, 18 yearsGambia, The: $21,269, 18.2 yearsGuinea-Bissau: $12,239, 18.9 yearsEquatorial Guinea: $191,691, 21 yearsGreece: $528,005, 45.7 yearsGrenada: $284,327, 33.4 yearsGuatemala: $111,294, 22.6 yearsHong Kong SAR, China: $667,472, 46.2 yearsHonduras: $82,123, 23.5 yearsCroatia: $436,860, 44.8 yearsHaiti: $98,654, 23.5 yearsHungary: $425,172, 43.3 yearsIndonesia: $183,833, 29.8 yearsIndia: $77,306, 28.1 yearsIreland: $916,129, 38.4 yearsIran, Islamic Rep.: $326,799, 32.9 yearsIraq: $157,848, 20.3 yearsIceland: $663,692, 35.8 yearsIsrael: $312,643, 29.1 yearsItaly: $772,186, 47.5 yearsJamaica: $127,828, 31.7 yearsJordan: $285,736, 24.3 yearsJapan: $443,290, 49 yearsKazakhstan: $240,251, 29.5 yearsKenya: $36,351, 19.5 yearsKyrgyz Republic: $75,165, 25.1 yearsCambodia: $57,014, 25.8 yearsKorea, Rep.: $524,597, 44.5 yearsKuwait: $295,624, 34.5 yearsLao PDR: $60,622, 24.3 yearsLebanon: $263,237, 28.3 yearsLiberia: $18,430, 18.4 yearsSt. Lucia: $227,662, 33.7 yearsSri Lanka: $135,884, 32.8 yearsLesotho: $51,675, 21.4 yearsLithuania: $351,583, 42.1 yearsLuxembourg: $630,742, 38.9 yearsLatvia: $567,433, 43.1 yearsMacao SAR, China: $580,196, 38.3 yearsMorocco: $121,741, 29.2 yearsMoldova: $150,878, 37.8 yearsMadagascar: $9,126, 18.9 yearsMaldives: $272,395, 31.1 yearsMexico: $182,229, 28.9 yearsNorth Macedonia: $246,047, 40.3 yearsMali: $13,542, 15.5 yearsMalta: $303,203, 40.3 yearsMyanmar: $69,944, 29.5 yearsMontenegro: $230,861, 39.3 yearsMongolia: $161,137, 26.8 yearsMozambique: $20,903, 16.3 yearsMauritania: $103,000, 17.1 yearsMauritius: $213,172, 36.9 yearsMalawi: $4,669, 17.6 yearsMalaysia: $277,072, 30.1 yearsNamibia: $151,136, 21 yearsNiger: $16,530, 15.3 yearsNigeria: $124,033, 17.8 yearsNicaragua: $83,527, 25.3 yearsNetherlands: $552,270, 41.4 yearsNorway: $771,357, 39.5 yearsNepal: $31,796, 24.7 yearsNew Zealand: $260,787, 37.3 yearsOman: $448,887, 29.3 yearsPakistan: $31,616, 20.3 yearsPanama: $444,149, 29.6 yearsPeru: $123,770, 29.5 yearsPhilippines: $96,960, 25.3 yearsPoland: $217,393, 41.3 yearsPortugal: $546,974, 46.2 yearsParaguay: $162,503, 26.3 yearsWest Bank and Gaza: $154,071, 19.8 yearsQatar: $955,762, 33.2 yearsRomania: $306,456, 42.6 yearsRussian Federation: $535,814, 39.5 yearsRwanda: $14,359, 19.4 yearsSaudi Arabia: $558,363, 29.2 yearsSudan: $40,014, 18.3 yearsSenegal: $39,760, 19.1 yearsSingapore: $659,201, 35.1 yearsSierra Leone: $11,451, 19.3 yearsEl Salvador: $118,273, 27 yearsSerbia: $242,243, 43.9 yearsSao Tome and Principe: $56,209, 19.1 yearsSuriname: $257,115, 28.1 yearsSlovak Republic: $356,502, 41.3 yearsSlovenia: $534,480, 43.9 yearsSweden: $568,885, 39.9 yearsEswatini: $109,028, 22 yearsSeychelles: $191,769, 33.7 yearsSyrian Arab Republic: $12,902, 22.2 yearsChad: $14,253, 15.4 yearsTogo: $23,596, 18.1 yearsThailand: $154,578, 39.7 yearsTajikistan: $275,734, 21.9 yearsTurkmenistan: $247,867, 26.2 yearsTrinidad and Tobago: $428,237, 36.7 yearsTunisia: $136,199, 32.1 yearsTurkiye: $310,440, 32.5 yearsTanzania: $33,612, 17.2 yearsUganda: $21,690, 16.5 yearsUkraine: $640,898, 42 yearsUruguay: $250,173, 35.8 yearsUnited States: $482,411, 38 yearsUzbekistan: $153,548, 26.9 yearsSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: $354,818, 33.9 yearsViet Nam: $88,517, 32.4 yearsSouth Africa: $161,442, 28.2 yearsZambia: $48,746, 17.5 yearsZimbabwe: $21,641, 17.8 yearsAREBGRBIHBRNCAFIRLITANERQATSRBTCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.7057.9e-27170
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.8284.8e-44170
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.0240.754170
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1530.048170

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 170 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.680 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.015 (without UKR) to +0.106 (without BRN). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BRN (+0.082).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • sign flips when a single country is removed
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific19-0.21
Europe & Central Asia48+0.05
Latin America & Caribbean29+0.29
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20-0.28
Sub-Saharan Africa45+0.29

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third57+0.24
Middle third56+0.32
Richest third57-0.04

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians100+0.28
Muslims46-0.26

By last European coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.24
Never a European colony20-0.02
Spain19-0.37
United Kingdom50-0.23

By official ideology

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Nationalist25-0.04
No strong official ideology109+0.29

By party system

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
A few parties banned25+0.80
No parties banned115+0.11

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.106 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = +0.295) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = +0.088). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.024for comparison
Within countries+0.663each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.295q = 0.000 · 178 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.088q = 0.084
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.
  • The association is much weaker in year-on-year changes than in levels, which points to shared country-specific trends.

5,961 country-years (one country in one year), 178 countries, 1990–2023, about 34 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 21% for Capital per worker, 10% for Median age. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Median age trails Capital per worker →lag -10: r = 0.289 (n = 4,193)lag -9: r = 0.287 (n = 4,368)lag -8: r = 0.285 (n = 4,543)lag -7: r = 0.282 (n = 4,728)lag -6: r = 0.279 (n = 4,905)lag -5: r = 0.278 (n = 5,082)lag -4: r = 0.279 (n = 5,259)lag -3: r = 0.281 (n = 5,436)lag -2: r = 0.285 (n = 5,613)lag -1: r = 0.290 (n = 5,789)lag +0: r = 0.295 (n = 5,961)lag +1: r = 0.292 (n = 5,787)lag +2: r = 0.290 (n = 5,613)lag +3: r = 0.289 (n = 5,439)lag +4: r = 0.283 (n = 5,265)lag +5: r = 0.281 (n = 5,091)lag +6: r = 0.276 (n = 4,917)lag +7: r = 0.269 (n = 4,743)lag +8: r = 0.263 (n = 4,569)lag +9: r = 0.256 (n = 4,395)lag +10: r = 0.249 (n = 4,221)

Same year (lag 0): +0.295. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


2021 international $ per worker
years		Years
Brunei Darussalam BRN$1,365,08031.82023
United Arab Emirates ARE$960,19731.22023
Qatar QAT$955,76233.22023
Ireland IRL$916,12938.42023
Belgium BEL$788,01641.42023
Italy ITA$772,18647.52023
Norway NOR$771,35739.52023
Switzerland CHE$713,60642.32023
France FRA$697,34341.82023
Austria AUT$691,75743.12023
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG$667,47246.22023
Finland FIN$666,23342.82023
Iceland ISL$663,69235.82023
Singapore SGP$659,20135.12023
Bahrain BHR$656,01832.92023

Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2015), "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table", American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182, www.ggdc.net/pwt. Data: Penn World Table version 11.0, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, doi:10.34894/FABVLR.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024 and Estimates and Projections of Women of Reproductive Age Who Are Married or in a Union

Sources

Capital per worker

Capital stock per person engaged, at current PPPs (Penn World Table)

Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen · via DataverseNL · CC BY 4.0 · updated irregular (new versions every few years)

The value of a country's buildings, machines, roads and other equipment, divided by the number of people working. It is in dollars adjusted for what money buys in each country, and it is best for comparing countries in the same year. The Penn World Table builds it by adding up past investment and taking off wear and tear, so it is linked to the investment share by construction. Where it is used for adjusting, it is measured in percentage terms (on a log scale), like income. No "better" direction is set.

Median age

Median age of the population

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated biennial

The age that splits a population in half: half are older and half are younger. The shares aged under 15 and over 65 are already on the site. All three are treated as measuring the same thing. They are readings of the same age pyramid, so they are bound to match, and their agreement is not a finding. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 18,622 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated V-Dem v16; V-Party v2. How the country data works · explore Capital per worker and Median age

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Capital per worker changes Median age, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Capital per worker or Median age