placestats

Birth rate vs. Electricity use per person

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 191 countries, Birth rate and Electricity use per person rise and fall together at r = -0.50 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.14, which could easily be chance (q = 0.098, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of electricity use per person, 738 to 5,802 kWh per person, birth rate is 4.55 per 1,000 people lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap reverses, to 0.822 per 1,000 people the other way.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.505p = 9.8e-14 · 191 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.138p = 0.057 · likely range [-0.00, +0.28]
p, allowing for regions0.255standard error 0.110 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.098across 13,797 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth rate · per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.85 · proxy
Electricity use per person · kWh per personlink with income +0.93 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth rate · per 1,000 people →Electricity use per person · kWh per person →4.746.218.248,424Aruba: 7.59 per 1,000 people, 9,253 kWh per personAfghanistan: 35 per 1,000 people, 160 kWh per personAngola: 37.2 per 1,000 people, 411 kWh per personAlbania: 10.1 per 1,000 people, 3,106 kWh per personUnited Arab Emirates: 9.82 per 1,000 people, 16,053 kWh per personArgentina: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 3,543 kWh per personArmenia: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 2,757 kWh per personAntigua and Barbuda: 11.7 per 1,000 people, 3,945 kWh per personAustralia: 10.7 per 1,000 people, 10,615 kWh per personAustria: 8.4 per 1,000 people, 8,322 kWh per personAzerbaijan: 10 per 1,000 people, 2,613 kWh per personBurundi: 33.2 per 1,000 people, 40.6 kWh per personBelgium: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 7,361 kWh per personBenin: 33.4 per 1,000 people, 160 kWh per personBurkina Faso: 31.3 per 1,000 people, 135 kWh per personBangladesh: 20 per 1,000 people, 672 kWh per personBulgaria: 8.3 per 1,000 people, 5,440 kWh per personBahrain: 12 per 1,000 people, 23,919 kWh per personBahamas, The: 10.8 per 1,000 people, 5,607 kWh per personBosnia and Herzegovina: 7.72 per 1,000 people, 4,599 kWh per personBelarus: 7.03 per 1,000 people, 5,054 kWh per personBelize: 18.1 per 1,000 people, 2,038 kWh per personBermuda: 7.92 per 1,000 people, 9,434 kWh per personBolivia: 21 per 1,000 people, 1,083 kWh per personBrazil: 12.1 per 1,000 people, 3,581 kWh per personBarbados: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 3,930 kWh per personBrunei Darussalam: 13.3 per 1,000 people, 12,016 kWh per personBhutan: 12.5 per 1,000 people, 15,742 kWh per personBotswana: 24.4 per 1,000 people, 1,852 kWh per personCentral African Republic: 46.2 per 1,000 people, 27.2 kWh per personCanada: 8.9 per 1,000 people, 16,090 kWh per personSwitzerland: 8.7 per 1,000 people, 7,262 kWh per personChile: 8.72 per 1,000 people, 4,456 kWh per personChina: 6.77 per 1,000 people, 7,460 kWh per personCote d'Ivoire: 31.6 per 1,000 people, 315 kWh per personCameroon: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 251 kWh per personCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.9 per 1,000 people, 159 kWh per personCongo, Rep.: 30.4 per 1,000 people, 850 kWh per personColombia: 13.3 per 1,000 people, 1,715 kWh per personComoros: 28.2 per 1,000 people, 165 kWh per personCabo Verde: 12.2 per 1,000 people, 991 kWh per personCosta Rica: 9.99 per 1,000 people, 2,416 kWh per personCayman Islands: 11.6 per 1,000 people, 9,533 kWh per personCyprus: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 4,311 kWh per personCzechia: 7.7 per 1,000 people, 6,413 kWh per personGermany: 8.1 per 1,000 people, 6,188 kWh per personDjibouti: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 685 kWh per personDominica: 11 per 1,000 people, 2,255 kWh per personDenmark: 9.5 per 1,000 people, 6,775 kWh per personDominican Republic: 17.6 per 1,000 people, 1,969 kWh per personAlgeria: 18.8 per 1,000 people, 2,005 kWh per personEcuador: 14.8 per 1,000 people, 2,003 kWh per personEgypt, Arab Rep.: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 2,064 kWh per personSpain: 6.5 per 1,000 people, 5,744 kWh per personEstonia: 7.1 per 1,000 people, 6,948 kWh per personEthiopia: 31.5 per 1,000 people, 229 kWh per personFinland: 7.8 per 1,000 people, 15,610 kWh per personFiji: 17.9 per 1,000 people, 1,238 kWh per personFrance: 9.7 per 1,000 people, 7,152 kWh per personFaroe Islands: 10.8 per 1,000 people, 8,952 kWh per personGabon: 27.1 per 1,000 people, 1,252 kWh per personUnited Kingdom: 9.89 per 1,000 people, 4,621 kWh per personGeorgia: 11.3 per 1,000 people, 3,862 kWh per personGhana: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 634 kWh per personGuinea: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 273 kWh per personGambia, The: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 185 kWh per personGuinea-Bissau: 29.6 per 1,000 people, 36.3 kWh per personEquatorial Guinea: 30 per 1,000 people, 787 kWh per personGreece: 6.6 per 1,000 people, 5,590 kWh per personGrenada: 11.5 per 1,000 people, 2,047 kWh per personGreenland: 12 per 1,000 people, 10,740 kWh per personGuatemala: 20.6 per 1,000 people, 888 kWh per personGuyana: 19.9 per 1,000 people, 1,660 kWh per personHong Kong SAR, China: 4.9 per 1,000 people, 6,583 kWh per personHonduras: 21.6 per 1,000 people, 1,167 kWh per personCroatia: 8.3 per 1,000 people, 5,210 kWh per personHaiti: 21.9 per 1,000 people, 73.1 kWh per personHungary: 8.2 per 1,000 people, 5,077 kWh per personIndonesia: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 1,314 kWh per personIndia: 16 per 1,000 people, 1,423 kWh per personIreland: 10 per 1,000 people, 7,091 kWh per personIran, Islamic Rep.: 12.6 per 1,000 people, 4,281 kWh per personIraq: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 3,406 kWh per personIceland: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 48,424 kWh per personIsrael: 18.6 per 1,000 people, 7,954 kWh per personItaly: 6.3 per 1,000 people, 5,268 kWh per personJamaica: 11.4 per 1,000 people, 1,733 kWh per personJordan: 20.5 per 1,000 people, 2,054 kWh per personJapan: 5.7 per 1,000 people, 8,366 kWh per personKazakhstan: 19.5 per 1,000 people, 6,050 kWh per personKenya: 27 per 1,000 people, 271 kWh per personKyrgyz Republic: 19.4 per 1,000 people, 2,647 kWh per personCambodia: 20.3 per 1,000 people, 1,254 kWh per personKiribati: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 297 kWh per personSt. Kitts and Nevis: 11.7 per 1,000 people, 4,908 kWh per personKorea, Rep.: 4.7 per 1,000 people, 12,090 kWh per personKuwait: 10 per 1,000 people, 18,402 kWh per personLao PDR: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 2,009 kWh per personLebanon: 16 per 1,000 people, 920 kWh per personLiberia: 30.6 per 1,000 people, 102 kWh per personLibya: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 4,686 kWh per personSt. Lucia: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 2,225 kWh per personSri Lanka: 10.1 per 1,000 people, 743 kWh per personLesotho: 23.8 per 1,000 people, 248 kWh per personLithuania: 6.6 per 1,000 people, 4,353 kWh per personLuxembourg: 9.5 per 1,000 people, 9,846 kWh per personLatvia: 6.9 per 1,000 people, 4,057 kWh per personMacao SAR, China: 5.3 per 1,000 people, 8,719 kWh per personMorocco: 16.4 per 1,000 people, 1,255 kWh per personMoldova: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 2,059 kWh per personMadagascar: 31.7 per 1,000 people, 76 kWh per personMaldives: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 1,610 kWh per personMexico: 15.5 per 1,000 people, 2,703 kWh per personNorth Macedonia: 8.8 per 1,000 people, 4,604 kWh per personMali: 39.5 per 1,000 people, 223 kWh per personMalta: 7.7 per 1,000 people, 5,922 kWh per personMyanmar: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 402 kWh per personMontenegro: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 6,859 kWh per personMongolia: 16.9 per 1,000 people, 3,528 kWh per personMozambique: 37 per 1,000 people, 476 kWh per personMauritania: 34 per 1,000 people, 458 kWh per personMauritius: 10.3 per 1,000 people, 2,683 kWh per personMalawi: 31.1 per 1,000 people, 83.6 kWh per personMalaysia: 12.4 per 1,000 people, 5,556 kWh per personNamibia: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 1,333 kWh per personNiger: 41.4 per 1,000 people, 79.5 kWh per personNigeria: 32.5 per 1,000 people, 165 kWh per personNicaragua: 19.1 per 1,000 people, 784 kWh per personNetherlands: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 6,601 kWh per personNorway: 9.7 per 1,000 people, 24,490 kWh per personNepal: 19 per 1,000 people, 372 kWh per personNaoero: 24.6 per 1,000 people, 4,178 kWh per personNew Zealand: 11 per 1,000 people, 8,252 kWh per personOman: 16.8 per 1,000 people, 9,617 kWh per personPakistan: 27.4 per 1,000 people, 766 kWh per personPanama: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 2,943 kWh per personPeru: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 1,749 kWh per personPhilippines: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 1,054 kWh per personPapua New Guinea: 24.3 per 1,000 people, 447 kWh per personPoland: 6.9 per 1,000 people, 4,570 kWh per personPuerto Rico (US): 5.7 per 1,000 people, 6,265 kWh per personPortugal: 7.9 per 1,000 people, 5,805 kWh per personParaguay: 19.7 per 1,000 people, 4,228 kWh per personWest Bank and Gaza: 26.5 per 1,000 people, 1,454 kWh per personQatar: 9.52 per 1,000 people, 18,030 kWh per personRomania: 7.5 per 1,000 people, 2,876 kWh per personRussian Federation: 8.4 per 1,000 people, 8,168 kWh per personRwanda: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 85.6 kWh per personSaudi Arabia: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 13,385 kWh per personSudan: 33 per 1,000 people, 309 kWh per personSenegal: 29.2 per 1,000 people, 439 kWh per personSingapore: 7.4 per 1,000 people, 10,295 kWh per personSolomon Islands: 26.7 per 1,000 people, 134 kWh per personSierra Leone: 30.1 per 1,000 people, 24.3 kWh per personEl Salvador: 15.6 per 1,000 people, 985 kWh per personSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 42.3 per 1,000 people, 22.6 kWh per personSerbia: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 5,591 kWh per personSao Tome and Principe: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 390 kWh per personSuriname: 17.2 per 1,000 people, 2,743 kWh per personSlovak Republic: 8.5 per 1,000 people, 4,886 kWh per personSlovenia: 7.9 per 1,000 people, 6,759 kWh per personSweden: 9.3 per 1,000 people, 12,866 kWh per personEswatini: 23.6 per 1,000 people, 1,328 kWh per personSeychelles: 11 per 1,000 people, 4,830 kWh per personSyrian Arab Republic: 23.2 per 1,000 people, 984 kWh per personTurks and Caicos Islands: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 5,799 kWh per personChad: 43.3 per 1,000 people, 18.2 kWh per personTogo: 32.1 per 1,000 people, 263 kWh per personThailand: 8.12 per 1,000 people, 3,143 kWh per personTajikistan: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 1,805 kWh per personTurkmenistan: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 3,204 kWh per personTimor-Leste: 21.8 per 1,000 people, 364 kWh per personTonga: 23 per 1,000 people, 672 kWh per personTrinidad and Tobago: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 6,334 kWh per personTunisia: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 2,016 kWh per personTurkiye: 11 per 1,000 people, 4,014 kWh per personTanzania: 34.8 per 1,000 people, 132 kWh per personUganda: 34.4 per 1,000 people, 107 kWh per personUkraine: 5.47 per 1,000 people, 2,719 kWh per personUruguay: 9.8 per 1,000 people, 4,358 kWh per personUnited States: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 13,061 kWh per personUzbekistan: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 2,419 kWh per personSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 12 per 1,000 people, 1,491 kWh per personVirgin Islands (U.S.): 11.1 per 1,000 people, 7,934 kWh per personViet Nam: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 3,087 kWh per personVanuatu: 27.7 per 1,000 people, 250 kWh per personSamoa: 25 per 1,000 people, 734 kWh per personKosovo: 11.9 per 1,000 people, 4,420 kWh per personSouth Africa: 18.5 per 1,000 people, 3,658 kWh per personZambia: 32.7 per 1,000 people, 779 kWh per personZimbabwe: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 727 kWh per personBHRCAFISLLKANORROUSOMTCDUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5059.8e-14191
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.8091.8e-45191
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1380.057191
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1280.078191

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 191 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.366 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.124 (without NOR) to +0.171 (without GUY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GUY (+0.033).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific27+0.06
Europe & Central Asia51+0.20
Latin America & Caribbean36-0.38
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.17
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.40

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third64-0.27
Middle third63-0.14
Richest third64+0.10

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians110+0.09
Muslims50+0.30

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.41
Never a European colony21+0.26
Spain19-0.29
United Kingdom62+0.05

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.126 after dropping 9 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.012, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose birth rate moved did not tend to see their electricity use per person move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.138for comparison
Within countries-0.172each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.012q = 0.821 · 203 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.056q = 0.062
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

5,375 country-years (one country in one year), 203 countries, 1990–2024, about 27 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 4% for Birth rate, 6% for Electricity use per person. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Electricity use per person trails Birth rate →lag -10: r = 0.011 (n = 3,352)lag -9: r = -0.000 (n = 3,554)lag -8: r = -0.005 (n = 3,761)lag -7: r = -0.003 (n = 3,964)lag -6: r = 0.002 (n = 4,167)lag -5: r = 0.004 (n = 4,370)lag -4: r = 0.007 (n = 4,573)lag -3: r = 0.012 (n = 4,776)lag -2: r = 0.016 (n = 4,979)lag -1: r = 0.016 (n = 5,181)lag +0: r = 0.012 (n = 5,375)lag +1: r = 0.005 (n = 5,432)lag +2: r = -0.002 (n = 5,399)lag +3: r = -0.011 (n = 5,366)lag +4: r = -0.020 (n = 5,333)lag +5: r = -0.028 (n = 5,300)lag +6: r = -0.038 (n = 5,267)lag +7: r = -0.047 (n = 5,234)lag +8: r = -0.059 (n = 5,201)lag +9: r = -0.073 (n = 5,168)lag +10: r = -0.093 (n = 5,135)

Same year (lag 0): +0.012. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


per 1,000 people
kWh per person		Years
Central African Republic CAF46.227.22024, 2023
Chad TCD43.318.22024
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM42.322.62024
Niger NER41.479.52024
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD40.91592024
Mali MLI39.52232024
Angola AGO37.24112024
Mozambique MOZ374762024
Afghanistan AFG351602024
Tanzania TZA34.81322024
Uganda UGA34.41072024
Mauritania MRT344582024
Benin BEN33.41602024
Cameroon CMR33.32512024
Guinea GIN33.32732024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Ember, Yearly Electricity Data; population from Our World in Data, with processing by Our World in Data

Sources

Birth rate

Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Electricity use per person

Electricity demand per person (kWh)

Ember · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

All the electricity a country uses in a year, divided by its population, in kilowatt-hours (kWh). One kWh runs a 100-watt bulb for ten hours. It counts the power made at home plus imports, minus exports, including the power lost in wires along the way. So it is a little higher than "consumption" figures that leave those losses out. Use per person ranges from under 100 kWh a year in parts of Africa to over 50,000 in Iceland, where aluminium smelters use most of it, so a few industries can set a small country's figure. It rises steeply with income, and is measured in percentage terms (on a log scale) where it is used for adjusting. No "better" direction is set: more electricity can mean more comfort and industry, or more waste.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2022–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 13,797 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth rate and Electricity use per person

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth rate changes Electricity use per person, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth rate or Electricity use per person