Across 191 countries, Birth rate and Education score rise and fall together at r = -0.84 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.48 (q = 0.0050, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a moderate negative link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.
Comparing countries across the middle half of birth rate, 9.7 to 25.1 per 1,000 people, education score is worse by 0.848 typical gaps at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.575 typical gaps.
Link before adjusting (r)-0.845p = 3.1e-53 · 191 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.484p = 1.5e-12 · likely range [-0.59, -0.37]
p, allowing for regions9.2e-5standard error 0.053 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.005across 12,497 pairs
How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.
Birth rate · per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.85 · proxy
Education score · typical gaps (standard deviations)link with income +0.81 · proxy
Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.
“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.
Every country as a dot
best-fit line line after adjusting
Four ways to measure the link
Method
r
p
Countries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted
-0.845
3.1e-53
191
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted
-0.809
1.4e-45
191
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income
-0.484
1.5e-12
191
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income
-0.375
9.6e-8
191
The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 191 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.361 (a minus sign means it grew).
How solid is it?
Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.501 (without CPV) to -0.465 (without GNQ). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GNQ (+0.019).
Fragile: this link may not hold up.
direction is not consistent across regions
Within each region
Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.
n
r
East Asia & Pacific
31
-0.07
Europe & Central Asia
50
+0.06
Latin America & Caribbean
34
-0.48
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
21
-0.19
Sub-Saharan Africa
46
-0.44
By income third
If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.
n
r
Poorest third
64
-0.51
Middle third
63
-0.33
Richest third
64
-0.40
By largest religious group
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
Christians
109
-0.49
Muslims
48
-0.50
By last european coloniser
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
France
24
-0.47
Never a European colony
21
-0.28
Spain
20
-0.81
United Kingdom
62
-0.43
Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.451 after dropping 6 countries.
Two series, one country
Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.
Loading…
Over time, within countries
Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.
Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.
The data
per 1,000 people
typical gaps (standard deviations)
Years
Central African Republic CAF
46.2
-1.65
2024, 2016
Chad TCD
43.3
-1.2
2024, 2023
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM
42.3
-2.1
2024, 2023
Niger NER
41.4
-1.04
2024, 2023
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD
40.9
-0.251
2024, 2023
Mali MLI
39.5
-1.24
2024, 2023
Angola AGO
37.2
-0.482
2024, 2023
Mozambique MOZ
37
-0.56
2024, 2022
Afghanistan AFG
35
-0.557
2024, 2023
Tanzania TZA
34.8
-0.351
2024, 2023
Uganda UGA
34.4
-0.832
2024, 2023
Mauritania MRT
34
-0.911
2024, 2020
Benin BEN
33.4
-0.586
2024, 2022
Cameroon CMR
33.3
-0.125
2024, 2023
Guinea GIN
33.3
-0.598
2024, 2020
World Bank, World Development Indicators uis; undp_hdr; wdi
PlaceStats · via PlaceStats · Derived work; each member keeps its own licence · updated recomputed with the panel
The average of 10 measures from 3 publishers. Each measure is first put on a common scale: 0 is the average country in an average year, and 1 is a typical gap between countries (a standard deviation). Each is turned so that higher is better. Measures are averaged within each publisher first, so a publisher with many measures does not count for more. Members: Primary completion, Expected schooling, Mean years of schooling, Adult literacy, Pupil-teacher ratio, Primary enrollment, Out of school, primary, Secondary enrollment, Tertiary enrollment, Researchers.
How this was computed
Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth rate and Education score
This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth rate changes Education score, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.