Armed conflict present vs. Male labor participation
Holds up after adjusting for income
Across 173 countries, Armed conflict present and Male labor participation rise and fall together at r = +0.25 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.28, q = 0.037, allowing for the many pairs tested).
Comparing countries across the middle half of armed conflict present, 0 to 1 points, male labor participation is 5.17% of men 15+ higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.41% of men 15+.
Link before adjusting (r)+0.249p = 0.001 · 173 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.281p = 0.000 · likely range [+0.14, +0.41]
p, allowing for regions0.003standard error 0.058 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.037across 12,497 pairs
How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.
Armed conflict present · 1 if any conflict, else 0link with income -0.39 · moderate
Male labor participation · % of men 15+link with income -0.06 · independent
“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.
Every country as a dot
best-fit line line after adjusting
Four ways to measure the link
| Method | r | p | Countries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (Pearson), not adjusted | +0.249 | 0.001 | 173 |
| By rank (Spearman), not adjusted | +0.267 | 0.000 | 173 |
| Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income | +0.281 | 0.000 | 173 |
| By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income | +0.272 | 0.000 | 173 |
The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 173 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.032 (a minus sign means it grew).
How solid is it?
Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.253 (without QAT) to +0.305 (without MDG). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: QAT (-0.029).
Within each region
Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| East Asia & Pacific | 23 | +0.17 | |
| Europe & Central Asia | 48 | +0.10 | |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 27 | +0.06 | |
| Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan | 22 | +0.31 | |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 45 | +0.32 |
By income third
If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Poorest third | 58 | +0.28 | |
| Middle third | 57 | +0.28 | |
| Richest third | 58 | +0.28 |
By largest religious group
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Christians | 104 | +0.15 | |
| Muslims | 49 | +0.42 |
By last european coloniser
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
| n | r | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 25 | +0.22 | |
| Never a European colony | 21 | +0.28 | |
| Spain | 19 | +0.09 | |
| United Kingdom | 55 | +0.19 |
Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.241 after dropping 5 countries.
Two series, one country
Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.
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Over time, within countries
Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 36years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.
Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.007, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose armed conflict present moved did not tend to see their male labor participation move with it.
Across countries (adjusted)+0.281for comparison
Within countries+0.011each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.007q = 0.907 · 179 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.001q = 0.975
6,430 country-years (one country in one year), 179 countries, 1990–2025, about 36 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 45% for Armed conflict present, 10% for Male labor participation. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.
Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.
With one measure years behind the other
Same year (lag 0): -0.007. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.
The data
1 if any conflict, else 0 | % of men 15+ | Years | |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa ZAF | 1 | 61.7% | 2025 |
| Ukraine UKR | 1 | 62.8% | 2025, 2021 |
| Uganda UGA | 1 | 84.6% | 2025 |
| Tanzania TZA | 1 | 87.3% | 2025 |
| Turkiye TUR | 1 | 71.9% | 2025 |
| Thailand THA | 1 | 75% | 2025 |
| Togo TGO | 1 | 59% | 2025 |
| Chad TCD | 1 | 71.7% | 2025 |
| Syrian Arab Republic SYR | 1 | 61.4% | 2025 |
| Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM | 1 | 47.2% | 2025 |
| Sudan SDN | 1 | 61.6% | 2025, 2022 |
| Saudi Arabia SAU | 1 | 83.3% | 2025 |
| Rwanda RWA | 1 | 70.6% | 2025 |
| Russian Federation RUS | 1 | 69% | 2025 |
| Qatar QAT | 1 | 95.6% | 2025 |
Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Georeferenced Event Dataset; rate per population from Our World in Data
World Bank, World Development Indicators
Sources
Armed conflict present
Whether an armed conflict is taking place in the country
Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual
One if any armed conflict took place on the country's territory that year, and zero if not. That makes it the site's first true yes-or-no measure. A link with a yes-or-no measure is a fair one: it compares the countries at war with the countries not at war. It answers a different question from the death rate: whether a country has a war at all, not how many people die. The two are treated as measuring the same thing, so their pair reads as two views of one thing, not as a finding. It is kept out of the crime score. A yes-or-no flag averaged into a combined score beside a rate would count the same conflicts twice.
Male labor participation
Labor force participation rate, male (% of male population 15+)
International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly
How this was computed
Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2021–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Armed conflict present and Male labor participation
This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Armed conflict present changes Male labor participation, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.
More links with Armed conflict present or Male labor participation
- Male labor participation vs Old-age spending before -0.77 → after adjusting -0.76
- Male labor participation vs Retirement age, men before +0.68 → after adjusting +0.66
- Male labor participation vs Public social spending before -0.65 → after adjusting -0.63
- Male labor participation vs Redistribution before -0.52 → after adjusting -0.57
- Armed conflict present vs Political stability before -0.64 → after adjusting -0.55
- Informal employment vs Male labor participation before +0.32 → after adjusting +0.45
- Male labor participation vs Market-income Gini before -0.31 → after adjusting -0.43
- Male labor participation vs Unemployment before -0.38 → after adjusting -0.38