placestats

Alcohol consumption vs. PISA science

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 83 countries, Alcohol consumption and PISA science rise and fall together at r = +0.52 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = +0.41, which could easily be chance (q = 0.17, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of pisa science, 403 to 489 PISA points, alcohol consumption is 3.3 litres per adult per year higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.74 litres per adult per year.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.517p = 5.6e-7 · 83 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.407p = 0.000 · likely range [+0.21, +0.57]
p, allowing for regions0.019standard error 0.107 · 5 regions
Check for luck (q)0.167across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Alcohol consumption · litres per adult per yearlink with income +0.51 · moderate
PISA science · PISA pointslink with income +0.78 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Alcohol consumption · litres per adult per year →PISA science · PISA points →016.8347561Albania: 4.47 litres per adult per year, 376 PISA pointsUnited Arab Emirates: 2.08 litres per adult per year, 432 PISA pointsArgentina: 8.05 litres per adult per year, 406 PISA pointsAustralia: 10.3 litres per adult per year, 507 PISA pointsAustria: 11.5 litres per adult per year, 491 PISA pointsBelgium: 9.43 litres per adult per year, 491 PISA pointsBulgaria: 11.6 litres per adult per year, 421 PISA pointsBosnia and Herzegovina: 5.87 litres per adult per year, 398 PISA pointsBelarus: 11.6 litres per adult per year, 471 PISA pointsBrazil: 7.7 litres per adult per year, 403 PISA pointsBrunei Darussalam: 0.51 litres per adult per year, 446 PISA pointsCanada: 9.89 litres per adult per year, 515 PISA pointsSwitzerland: 10.1 litres per adult per year, 503 PISA pointsChile: 7.56 litres per adult per year, 444 PISA pointsColombia: 4.24 litres per adult per year, 411 PISA pointsCosta Rica: 3.4 litres per adult per year, 411 PISA pointsCyprus: 6.36 litres per adult per year, 411 PISA pointsCzechia: 12 litres per adult per year, 498 PISA pointsGermany: 11.8 litres per adult per year, 492 PISA pointsDenmark: 9.49 litres per adult per year, 494 PISA pointsDominican Republic: 6.5 litres per adult per year, 360 PISA pointsAlgeria: 0.54 litres per adult per year, 376 PISA pointsSpain: 9.16 litres per adult per year, 485 PISA pointsEstonia: 10.7 litres per adult per year, 526 PISA pointsFinland: 9.08 litres per adult per year, 511 PISA pointsFrance: 10.3 litres per adult per year, 487 PISA pointsUnited Kingdom: 10.7 litres per adult per year, 500 PISA pointsGeorgia: 14.4 litres per adult per year, 384 PISA pointsGreece: 5.81 litres per adult per year, 441 PISA pointsGuatemala: 1.54 litres per adult per year, 373 PISA pointsCroatia: 7.65 litres per adult per year, 483 PISA pointsHungary: 9.93 litres per adult per year, 486 PISA pointsIndonesia: 0.074 litres per adult per year, 383 PISA pointsIreland: 10.8 litres per adult per year, 504 PISA pointsIceland: 7.94 litres per adult per year, 447 PISA pointsIsrael: 2.84 litres per adult per year, 465 PISA pointsItaly: 6.97 litres per adult per year, 477 PISA pointsJamaica: 3.1 litres per adult per year, 403 PISA pointsJordan: 0.23 litres per adult per year, 375 PISA pointsJapan: 6.38 litres per adult per year, 547 PISA pointsKazakhstan: 4.52 litres per adult per year, 423 PISA pointsCambodia: 6.67 litres per adult per year, 347 PISA pointsKorea, Rep.: 7.79 litres per adult per year, 528 PISA pointsLebanon: 1.26 litres per adult per year, 384 PISA pointsLithuania: 12.1 litres per adult per year, 484 PISA pointsLuxembourg: 10.8 litres per adult per year, 477 PISA pointsLatvia: 12.9 litres per adult per year, 494 PISA pointsMorocco: 0.5 litres per adult per year, 365 PISA pointsMoldova: 11.1 litres per adult per year, 417 PISA pointsMexico: 4.79 litres per adult per year, 410 PISA pointsNorth Macedonia: 4.36 litres per adult per year, 380 PISA pointsMalta: 7.11 litres per adult per year, 466 PISA pointsMontenegro: 10.3 litres per adult per year, 403 PISA pointsMongolia: 7.68 litres per adult per year, 412 PISA pointsMalaysia: 0.74 litres per adult per year, 416 PISA pointsNetherlands: 8.71 litres per adult per year, 488 PISA pointsNorway: 7.38 litres per adult per year, 478 PISA pointsNew Zealand: 10 litres per adult per year, 504 PISA pointsPanama: 4.66 litres per adult per year, 388 PISA pointsPeru: 6.45 litres per adult per year, 408 PISA pointsPhilippines: 5.66 litres per adult per year, 356 PISA pointsPoland: 11.7 litres per adult per year, 499 PISA pointsPortugal: 8.88 litres per adult per year, 484 PISA pointsParaguay: 5.62 litres per adult per year, 368 PISA pointsQatar: 1.05 litres per adult per year, 432 PISA pointsRomania: 16.8 litres per adult per year, 428 PISA pointsRussian Federation: 10.5 litres per adult per year, 478 PISA pointsSaudi Arabia: 0 litres per adult per year, 390 PISA pointsSingapore: 1.81 litres per adult per year, 561 PISA pointsEl Salvador: 3.15 litres per adult per year, 373 PISA pointsSerbia: 7.89 litres per adult per year, 447 PISA pointsSlovak Republic: 10.7 litres per adult per year, 462 PISA pointsSlovenia: 10.4 litres per adult per year, 500 PISA pointsSweden: 9.57 litres per adult per year, 494 PISA pointsThailand: 7.99 litres per adult per year, 409 PISA pointsTrinidad and Tobago: 6.03 litres per adult per year, 425 PISA pointsTunisia: 1.71 litres per adult per year, 386 PISA pointsTurkiye: 1.69 litres per adult per year, 476 PISA pointsUkraine: 9.24 litres per adult per year, 450 PISA pointsUruguay: 5.61 litres per adult per year, 435 PISA pointsUnited States: 9.9 litres per adult per year, 499 PISA pointsUzbekistan: 2.1 litres per adult per year, 355 PISA pointsViet Nam: 8.04 litres per adult per year, 472 PISA pointsCZEDZAESTGEOJORJPNKHMLVAMARROUSGPTUR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5175.6e-783
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5827.8e-983
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.4070.00083
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.5061.2e-683

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 83 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.110 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.359 (without SAU) to +0.458 (without GEO). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GEO (+0.051).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific13+0.61
Europe & Central Asia43+0.28
Latin America & Caribbean15+0.13

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third28+0.31
Middle third27+0.21
Richest third28+0.58

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians55+0.33
Muslims16+0.08

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Spain14+0.06
United Kingdom14+0.58

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.407 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 13years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = +0.179) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = —). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.407for comparison
Within countries+0.213each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.179q = 0.036 · 48 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

240 country-years (one country in one year), 48 countries, 2006–2018, about 5 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 4% for Alcohol consumption, 3% for PISA science. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-20+9years PISA science trails Alcohol consumption →lag -2: r = 0.173 (n = 240)lag -1: r = 0.188 (n = 240)lag +0: r = 0.179 (n = 240)lag +1: r = 0.141 (n = 240)lag +2: r = 0.089 (n = 306)lag +3: r = 0.076 (n = 306)lag +4: r = 0.089 (n = 306)lag +5: r = 0.110 (n = 306)lag +6: r = 0.114 (n = 306)lag +7: r = 0.137 (n = 250)lag +8: r = 0.155 (n = 250)lag +9: r = 0.160 (n = 250)

Same year (lag 0): +0.179. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


litres per adult per year
PISA points		Years
Romania ROU16.84282020, 2022
Georgia GEO14.43842020, 2022
Latvia LVA12.94942020, 2022
Lithuania LTU12.14842020, 2022
Czechia CZE124982020, 2022
Germany DEU11.84922020, 2022
Poland POL11.74992020, 2022
Belarus BLR11.64712020, 2018
Bulgaria BGR11.64212020, 2022
Austria AUT11.54912020, 2022
Moldova MDA11.14172020, 2022
Luxembourg LUX10.84772020, 2018
Ireland IRL10.85042020, 2022
United Kingdom GBR10.75002020, 2022
Estonia EST10.75262020, 2022

World Bank, World Development Indicators
OECD databases as named on each indicator: PISA, Social Expenditure Database (SOCX), Income Distribution Database, Development Assistance Committee statistics, Family Database, Government at a Glance, Corporate Tax Statistics, employment and environment statistics

Sources

Alcohol consumption

Total alcohol consumption per capita (litres of pure alcohol, age 15+)

World Health Organization Global Health Observatory · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Recorded drinking plus an estimate of unrecorded drinking, per person aged fifteen and over. Ends in 2020. No "better" direction is set, and the reason is the strongest fact about this measure on the site. Of everything here, it is what most separates countries by their largest religion. Alcohol is forbidden in Islam, so a low figure in a Muslim-majority country is religious practice showing up in a health statistic. Calling that end "best" would make this site score religious practice, which it refuses to do everywhere else. Every measure of attendance, prayer, marriage and belief here has no "better" direction for exactly that reason. This is the same fact arriving through a different column. The World Health Organization is right that alcohol carries a real burden of disease, and the site does not dispute it. It declines to turn that into a score for a country, when the thing being scored would largely be how many of its people are Muslim.

PISA science

PISA mean science score

OECD · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 (OECD terms and conditions) · updated annual, except the snapshots noted per indicator

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2015–2022. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 5 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Alcohol consumption and PISA science

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Alcohol consumption changes PISA science, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Alcohol consumption or PISA science