placestats

Alcohol consumption vs. Muslim share

Holds up after adjusting for income

A country is not a person. Countries where more people are counted as belonging to this group also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does not follow that the people in the group are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. It is the most common misuse of this kind of data. Religion also varies strongly with region, history and national income, so much of what looks religious here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures are for. The religion shares are estimates for two years only, and the survey questions are asked in rounds that can be ten years apart.

Across 176 countries, Alcohol consumption and Muslim share rise and fall together at r = -0.57 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.55, q = 0.049, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of muslim share, 0.266% to 56.1% of population, alcohol consumption is 3.31 litres per adult per year lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2.85 litres per adult per year.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.574p = 7.7e-17 · 176 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.554p = 1.9e-15 · likely range [-0.65, -0.44]
p, allowing for regions0.012standard error 0.157 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.049across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Alcohol consumption · litres per adult per yearlink with income +0.51 · moderate
Muslim share · % of populationlink with income -0.14 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Alcohol consumption · litres per adult per year →Muslim share · % of population →016.80.00186%99.9%Afghanistan: 0.011 litres per adult per year, 99.9% of populationAngola: 4.13 litres per adult per year, 0.256% of populationAlbania: 4.47 litres per adult per year, 74.5% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 2.08 litres per adult per year, 72.9% of populationArgentina: 8.05 litres per adult per year, 0.929% of populationArmenia: 4.28 litres per adult per year, 0.267% of populationAustralia: 10.3 litres per adult per year, 3.5% of populationAustria: 11.5 litres per adult per year, 8.3% of populationAzerbaijan: 2.49 litres per adult per year, 94.7% of populationBurundi: 4.16 litres per adult per year, 2.99% of populationBelgium: 9.43 litres per adult per year, 6.81% of populationBenin: 8.83 litres per adult per year, 31.4% of populationBurkina Faso: 11.3 litres per adult per year, 67.4% of populationBangladesh: 0.092 litres per adult per year, 91.1% of populationBulgaria: 11.6 litres per adult per year, 10.3% of populationBahrain: 1.25 litres per adult per year, 74% of populationBahamas, The: 3.65 litres per adult per year, 0.0858% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 5.87 litres per adult per year, 53.6% of populationBelarus: 11.6 litres per adult per year, 0.262% of populationBelize: 3.67 litres per adult per year, 0.18% of populationBolivia: 3.59 litres per adult per year, 0.0098% of populationBrazil: 7.7 litres per adult per year, 0.0177% of populationBarbados: 8.22 litres per adult per year, 0.707% of populationBrunei Darussalam: 0.51 litres per adult per year, 82.2% of populationBhutan: 0.18 litres per adult per year, 0.222% of populationBotswana: 7.27 litres per adult per year, 0.33% of populationCentral African Republic: 1.75 litres per adult per year, 6.24% of populationCanada: 9.89 litres per adult per year, 4.89% of populationSwitzerland: 10.1 litres per adult per year, 6.08% of populationChile: 7.56 litres per adult per year, 0.067% of populationChina: 4.58 litres per adult per year, 1.82% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 2.85 litres per adult per year, 46.3% of populationCameroon: 9.6 litres per adult per year, 25.2% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 1.92 litres per adult per year, 1.27% of populationCongo, Rep.: 6.05 litres per adult per year, 1.46% of populationColombia: 4.24 litres per adult per year, 0.00393% of populationComoros: 0.23 litres per adult per year, 98.3% of populationCabo Verde: 6.01 litres per adult per year, 0.313% of populationCosta Rica: 3.4 litres per adult per year, 0.0252% of populationCyprus: 6.36 litres per adult per year, 24.4% of populationCzechia: 12 litres per adult per year, 0.327% of populationGermany: 11.8 litres per adult per year, 6.55% of populationDjibouti: 0.38 litres per adult per year, 97.7% of populationDenmark: 9.49 litres per adult per year, 4.22% of populationDominican Republic: 6.5 litres per adult per year, 0.0248% of populationAlgeria: 0.54 litres per adult per year, 98.4% of populationEcuador: 2.54 litres per adult per year, 0.0181% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.13 litres per adult per year, 95.2% of populationSpain: 9.16 litres per adult per year, 3.58% of populationEstonia: 10.7 litres per adult per year, 0.598% of populationEthiopia: 3.06 litres per adult per year, 36.2% of populationFinland: 9.08 litres per adult per year, 1.61% of populationFiji: 3.58 litres per adult per year, 5.78% of populationFrance: 10.3 litres per adult per year, 9.1% of populationMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 2.02 litres per adult per year, 0.00196% of populationGabon: 8.14 litres per adult per year, 8.64% of populationUnited Kingdom: 10.7 litres per adult per year, 6.37% of populationGeorgia: 14.4 litres per adult per year, 10.5% of populationGhana: 4.26 litres per adult per year, 19.9% of populationGuinea: 0.52 litres per adult per year, 86.8% of populationGambia, The: 0.61 litres per adult per year, 97% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 3.73 litres per adult per year, 56% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 6.56 litres per adult per year, 4.05% of populationGreece: 5.81 litres per adult per year, 5.12% of populationGrenada: 7.33 litres per adult per year, 0.395% of populationGuatemala: 1.54 litres per adult per year, 0.00271% of populationGuyana: 5.04 litres per adult per year, 6.5% of populationHonduras: 3.08 litres per adult per year, 0.00277% of populationCroatia: 7.65 litres per adult per year, 1.37% of populationHaiti: 3.11 litres per adult per year, 0.00186% of populationHungary: 9.93 litres per adult per year, 0.139% of populationIndonesia: 0.074 litres per adult per year, 87% of populationIndia: 4.1 litres per adult per year, 15.2% of populationIreland: 10.8 litres per adult per year, 1.69% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.51 litres per adult per year, 99.8% of populationIraq: 0.24 litres per adult per year, 99.5% of populationIceland: 7.94 litres per adult per year, 1.21% of populationIsrael: 2.84 litres per adult per year, 14.7% of populationItaly: 6.97 litres per adult per year, 4.42% of populationJamaica: 3.1 litres per adult per year, 0.016% of populationJordan: 0.23 litres per adult per year, 97.1% of populationJapan: 6.38 litres per adult per year, 0.17% of populationKazakhstan: 4.52 litres per adult per year, 77.9% of populationKenya: 2.47 litres per adult per year, 10.9% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 3.63 litres per adult per year, 91.7% of populationCambodia: 6.67 litres per adult per year, 2.04% of populationKiribati: 0.72 litres per adult per year, 0.0854% of populationKorea, Rep.: 7.79 litres per adult per year, 0.31% of populationKuwait: 0 litres per adult per year, 80.2% of populationLao PDR: 10.8 litres per adult per year, 0.0222% of populationLebanon: 1.26 litres per adult per year, 67.8% of populationLiberia: 2.86 litres per adult per year, 12.7% of populationLibya: 0.012 litres per adult per year, 99% of populationSt. Lucia: 9.28 litres per adult per year, 0.0949% of populationSri Lanka: 2.91 litres per adult per year, 10.2% of populationLesotho: 4.3 litres per adult per year, 0.218% of populationLithuania: 12.1 litres per adult per year, 0.0892% of populationLuxembourg: 10.8 litres per adult per year, 1.83% of populationLatvia: 12.9 litres per adult per year, 0.67% of populationMorocco: 0.5 litres per adult per year, 99.7% of populationMoldova: 11.1 litres per adult per year, 0.181% of populationMadagascar: 0.99 litres per adult per year, 1.16% of populationMaldives: 1.49 litres per adult per year, 94.1% of populationMexico: 4.79 litres per adult per year, 0.00629% of populationNorth Macedonia: 4.36 litres per adult per year, 34.7% of populationMali: 5.32 litres per adult per year, 94.1% of populationMalta: 7.11 litres per adult per year, 3.64% of populationMyanmar: 1.93 litres per adult per year, 3.35% of populationMontenegro: 10.3 litres per adult per year, 21.3% of populationMongolia: 7.68 litres per adult per year, 3.53% of populationMozambique: 1.89 litres per adult per year, 19.4% of populationMauritania: 0 litres per adult per year, 99.2% of populationMauritius: 6.86 litres per adult per year, 17.5% of populationMalawi: 3.61 litres per adult per year, 11.6% of populationMalaysia: 0.74 litres per adult per year, 64.1% of populationNamibia: 5.05 litres per adult per year, 0.119% of populationNiger: 0.13 litres per adult per year, 98.1% of populationNigeria: 3.78 litres per adult per year, 56.1% of populationNicaragua: 3.67 litres per adult per year, 0.00459% of populationNetherlands: 8.71 litres per adult per year, 5.5% of populationNorway: 7.38 litres per adult per year, 4.11% of populationNepal: 1.06 litres per adult per year, 5.08% of populationNew Zealand: 10 litres per adult per year, 1.36% of populationOman: 0.51 litres per adult per year, 81.8% of populationPakistan: 0.084 litres per adult per year, 96.5% of populationPanama: 4.66 litres per adult per year, 0.0531% of populationPeru: 6.45 litres per adult per year, 0.0216% of populationPhilippines: 5.66 litres per adult per year, 6.46% of populationPapua New Guinea: 1.13 litres per adult per year, 0.0748% of populationPoland: 11.7 litres per adult per year, 0.00732% of populationPortugal: 8.88 litres per adult per year, 0.409% of populationParaguay: 5.62 litres per adult per year, 0.0113% of populationQatar: 1.05 litres per adult per year, 75.9% of populationRomania: 16.8 litres per adult per year, 0.356% of populationRussian Federation: 10.5 litres per adult per year, 8.19% of populationRwanda: 2.87 litres per adult per year, 1.81% of populationSaudi Arabia: 0 litres per adult per year, 92.7% of populationSudan: 0.01 litres per adult per year, 98.9% of populationSenegal: 0.38 litres per adult per year, 97.6% of populationSingapore: 1.81 litres per adult per year, 16.1% of populationSolomon Islands: 1.45 litres per adult per year, 0.34% of populationSierra Leone: 0.29 litres per adult per year, 80.1% of populationEl Salvador: 3.15 litres per adult per year, 0.0035% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0 litres per adult per year, 99.8% of populationSerbia: 7.89 litres per adult per year, 4.42% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 4.79 litres per adult per year, 0.0915% of populationSuriname: 5.93 litres per adult per year, 13.1% of populationSlovak Republic: 10.7 litres per adult per year, 0.0548% of populationSlovenia: 10.4 litres per adult per year, 1.61% of populationSweden: 9.57 litres per adult per year, 8.1% of populationEswatini: 6.79 litres per adult per year, 0.136% of populationSeychelles: 10.2 litres per adult per year, 0.893% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 0.092 litres per adult per year, 94.2% of populationChad: 2.91 litres per adult per year, 56.4% of populationTogo: 1.44 litres per adult per year, 16.1% of populationThailand: 7.99 litres per adult per year, 4.51% of populationTajikistan: 0.74 litres per adult per year, 98.9% of populationTurkmenistan: 2.62 litres per adult per year, 94.3% of populationTimor-Leste: 0.17 litres per adult per year, 0.257% of populationTonga: 0.36 litres per adult per year, 0.0605% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 6.03 litres per adult per year, 5.46% of populationTunisia: 1.71 litres per adult per year, 99.3% of populationTurkiye: 1.69 litres per adult per year, 97.1% of populationTanzania: 10.9 litres per adult per year, 29.9% of populationUganda: 11.3 litres per adult per year, 11.4% of populationUkraine: 9.24 litres per adult per year, 0.568% of populationUruguay: 5.61 litres per adult per year, 0.0893% of populationUnited States: 9.9 litres per adult per year, 1.19% of populationUzbekistan: 2.1 litres per adult per year, 95.6% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 5.62 litres per adult per year, 0.107% of populationViet Nam: 8.04 litres per adult per year, 0.0721% of populationVanuatu: 2.04 litres per adult per year, 0.0193% of populationSamoa: 2.35 litres per adult per year, 0.0253% of populationSouth Africa: 7.13 litres per adult per year, 1.6% of populationZambia: 3.62 litres per adult per year, 0.511% of populationZimbabwe: 2.67 litres per adult per year, 0.529% of populationAFGBFABTNGEOLVAMRTROUSOMTLSTON

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5747.7e-17176
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.4187.9e-9176
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.5541.9e-15176
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.4198.0e-9176

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 176 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.021 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.578 (without BFA) to -0.542 (without SAU). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BFA (-0.025).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific25-0.61
Europe & Central Asia48-0.71
Latin America & Caribbean28+0.02
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan21-0.84
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.38

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third59-0.32
Middle third58-0.66
Richest third59-0.76

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians108+0.24
Muslims48-0.55

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.58
Never a European colony21-0.67
Spain20-0.40
United Kingdom58-0.60

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.554 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


litres per adult per year
% of population		Years
Romania ROU16.80.356%2020
Georgia GEO14.410.5%2020
Latvia LVA12.90.67%2020
Lithuania LTU12.10.0892%2020
Czechia CZE120.327%2020
Germany DEU11.86.55%2020
Poland POL11.70.00732%2020
Belarus BLR11.60.262%2020
Bulgaria BGR11.610.3%2020
Austria AUT11.58.3%2020
Uganda UGA11.311.4%2020
Burkina Faso BFA11.367.4%2020
Moldova MDA11.10.181%2020
Tanzania TZA10.929.9%2020
Luxembourg LUX10.81.83%2020

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Pew Research Center, Religious Composition by Country, 2010-2020. Pew Research Center bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of the data presented here.
One of these measures is published under a licence that forbids changes. Values are shown exactly as published and must not be republished in a changed or rescaled form.

Sources

Alcohol consumption

Total alcohol consumption per capita (litres of pure alcohol, age 15+)

World Health Organization Global Health Observatory · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Recorded drinking plus an estimate of unrecorded drinking, per person aged fifteen and over. Ends in 2020. No "better" direction is set, and the reason is the strongest fact about this measure on the site. Of everything here, it is what most separates countries by their largest religion. Alcohol is forbidden in Islam, so a low figure in a Muslim-majority country is religious practice showing up in a health statistic. Calling that end "best" would make this site score religious practice, which it refuses to do everywhere else. Every measure of attendance, prayer, marriage and belief here has no "better" direction for exactly that reason. This is the same fact arriving through a different column. The World Health Organization is right that alcohol carries a real burden of disease, and the site does not dispute it. It declines to turn that into a score for a country, when the thing being scored would largely be how many of its people are Muslim.

Muslim share

Share of the population identifying as Muslim

Pew Research Center · via Our World in Data · Pew Research Center terms of use, excerpts with attribution · updated decennial · comparable from 2010 only

The second largest religion. The three religion shares are parts of one total. So for any pair of them, more of one means less of the others. They are built from the same numbers, so they are bound to match, and the site flags this. Hindu, Buddhist, folk and other religions are not included, so that what is taken from Pew's dataset stays a small excerpt of it. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2019–2020. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Alcohol consumption and Muslim share

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Alcohol consumption changes Muslim share, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Alcohol consumption or Muslim share