placestats

Adult literacy vs. Extreme poverty rate

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 116 countries, Adult literacy and Extreme poverty rate rise and fall together at r = -0.62 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.16, which could easily be chance (q = 0.74, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of extreme poverty rate, 0.8% to 23.9% of population, adult literacy is worse by 11.7% of adults at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.41% of adults.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.624p = 6.9e-14 · 116 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.160p = 0.087 · likely range [-0.33, +0.02]
p, allowing for regions0.581standard error 0.271 · 6 regions
Check for luck (q)0.741across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Adult literacy · % of adultslink with income +0.73 · high
Extreme poverty rate · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Adult literacy · % of adults →Extreme poverty rate · % of population →30.6%100%0%85.3%Angola: 68.2% of adults, 39.3% of populationAlbania: 97.7% of adults, 0.3% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 98.8% of adults, 0% of populationArgentina: 99.1% of adults, 1% of populationArmenia: 99.8% of adults, 0.8% of populationBurundi: 71.3% of adults, 74.2% of populationBenin: 51.4% of adults, 27.2% of populationBurkina Faso: 41.6% of adults, 42.1% of populationBangladesh: 79% of adults, 5.9% of populationBulgaria: 98.3% of adults, 1% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 97% of adults, 0.3% of populationBelarus: 99.9% of adults, 0% of populationBelize: 87.9% of adults, 1% of populationBolivia: 96.7% of adults, 2.1% of populationBrazil: 94.7% of adults, 3% of populationBhutan: 64.9% of adults, 0% of populationCentral African Republic: 42.4% of adults, 71.6% of populationChile: 96.4% of adults, 0.4% of populationChina: 96.7% of adults, 0% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 50% of adults, 20.8% of populationCameroon: 72.6% of adults, 26.7% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 68.5% of adults, 85.3% of populationColombia: 95.3% of adults, 8.5% of populationComoros: 75.6% of adults, 5.1% of populationCabo Verde: 88.5% of adults, 14.6% of populationCosta Rica: 97.4% of adults, 0.8% of populationCyprus: 98.7% of adults, 0% of populationDominican Republic: 94% of adults, 0.8% of populationEcuador: 93.5% of adults, 3.4% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 79.5% of adults, 1.4% of populationSpain: 99.7% of adults, 0.8% of populationEstonia: 99.9% of adults, 0.3% of populationEthiopia: 60.5% of adults, 38.6% of populationGabon: 88.9% of adults, 3.8% of populationGeorgia: 99.7% of adults, 4.2% of populationGhana: 76.5% of adults, 39% of populationGuinea: 39.6% of adults, 11.7% of populationGambia, The: 51.6% of adults, 22% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 63.9% of adults, 39.9% of populationGuatemala: 82.1% of adults, 9.7% of populationHonduras: 88.3% of adults, 15.7% of populationHaiti: 68% of adults, 40.4% of populationIndonesia: 96% of adults, 4% of populationIndia: 78.2% of adults, 5.3% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 88.9% of adults, 2.5% of populationIraq: 84.1% of adults, 0.5% of populationItaly: 99.3% of adults, 0.9% of populationJordan: 94.4% of adults, 0.1% of populationKiribati: 98.6% of adults, 0.9% of populationLao PDR: 75.6% of adults, 7.1% of populationLebanon: 92% of adults, 5.8% of populationLiberia: 59.4% of adults, 33.6% of populationSri Lanka: 92.7% of adults, 2.7% of populationLesotho: 90.4% of adults, 41.9% of populationLithuania: 99.8% of adults, 1.1% of populationLatvia: 99.9% of adults, 0.4% of populationMorocco: 64.3% of adults, 3.7% of populationMoldova: 99.4% of adults, 0.1% of populationMadagascar: 74.7% of adults, 69.2% of populationMaldives: 98.2% of adults, 0% of populationMexico: 95.6% of adults, 1.6% of populationMarshall Islands: 95.8% of adults, 2.1% of populationMali: 35.6% of adults, 36.1% of populationMalta: 93.3% of adults, 0.4% of populationMyanmar: 93.5% of adults, 10.3% of populationMontenegro: 98.5% of adults, 2.5% of populationMongolia: 98.6% of adults, 0.4% of populationMozambique: 61.7% of adults, 81.4% of populationMauritania: 59.5% of adults, 10.2% of populationMauritius: 94.3% of adults, 0.5% of populationMalawi: 70.2% of adults, 75.4% of populationMalaysia: 95.8% of adults, 0% of populationNamibia: 87.6% of adults, 22.9% of populationNiger: 35.6% of adults, 60.5% of populationNigeria: 70.4% of adults, 41.8% of populationNicaragua: 87.3% of adults, 6.6% of populationNepal: 68.7% of adults, 2.4% of populationNaoero: 96.6% of adults, 9.7% of populationPakistan: 58.9% of adults, 23% of populationPanama: 96.2% of adults, 3.1% of populationPeru: 93.7% of adults, 5.1% of populationPhilippines: 98.5% of adults, 5.3% of populationPortugal: 94.5% of adults, 0.4% of populationParaguay: 94.9% of adults, 2.1% of populationWest Bank and Gaza: 97.9% of adults, 2.1% of populationQatar: 97.8% of adults, 0% of populationRomania: 99.2% of adults, 0.7% of populationRussian Federation: 99.9% of adults, 0.1% of populationRwanda: 78.8% of adults, 38.6% of populationSenegal: 50.4% of adults, 17.9% of populationSierra Leone: 43.6% of adults, 41.5% of populationEl Salvador: 89.8% of adults, 4.6% of populationSerbia: 99.3% of adults, 1.1% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 87.4% of adults, 13% of populationSuriname: 92.9% of adults, 2.2% of populationEswatini: 90.8% of adults, 44.5% of populationSeychelles: 93.9% of adults, 0.7% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 94.4% of adults, 18% of populationChad: 30.6% of adults, 39.5% of populationTogo: 72.6% of adults, 34.7% of populationThailand: 91.1% of adults, 0% of populationTimor-Leste: 69.4% of adults, 44% of populationTonga: 99.5% of adults, 0.4% of populationTunisia: 86.3% of adults, 0.7% of populationTurkiye: 97.3% of adults, 0.2% of populationTuvalu: 100% of adults, 9% of populationTanzania: 78.2% of adults, 51.3% of populationUganda: 77% of adults, 59.8% of populationUruguay: 98.9% of adults, 0.2% of populationUzbekistan: 100% of adults, 2.3% of populationViet Nam: 96.1% of adults, 1.6% of populationVanuatu: 88% of adults, 19.5% of populationSamoa: 98% of adults, 4.5% of populationSouth Africa: 91.2% of adults, 17.4% of populationZambia: 71.8% of adults, 71.7% of populationZimbabwe: 93.2% of adults, 49.2% of populationBDIBLRCAFCODESTGINMOZNERRUSSENTCDZWE

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.6246.9e-14116
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.7161.6e-19116
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1600.087116
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2520.007116

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 116 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.464 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.201 (without GIN) to -0.116 (without KIR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: KIR (+0.044).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific17-0.75
Europe & Central Asia20+0.20
Latin America & Caribbean20-0.60
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan13-0.36
Sub-Saharan Africa40+0.38

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third39+0.01
Middle third38-0.31
Richest third39-0.14

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians68-0.37
Muslims33-0.53

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21+0.11
Spain18+0.05
United Kingdom35-0.23

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.279 after dropping 10 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of adults
% of population		Years
Uzbekistan UZB100%2.3%2022, 2025
Tuvalu TUV100%9%2022, 2010
Russian Federation RUS99.9%0.1%2021, 2023
Latvia LVA99.9%0.4%2011, 2023
Estonia EST99.9%0.3%2011, 2023
Belarus BLR99.9%0%2019, 2020
Armenia ARM99.8%0.8%2023, 2024
Lithuania LTU99.8%1.1%2011, 2023
Spain ESP99.7%0.8%2021, 2023
Georgia GEO99.7%4.2%2024
Tonga TON99.5%0.4%2023, 2021
Moldova MDA99.4%0.1%2014, 2023
Italy ITA99.3%0.9%2019, 2023
Serbia SRB99.3%1.1%2022, 2023
Romania ROU99.2%0.7%2021, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Adult literacy

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Reported only in census or survey years for most countries, so the data are sparse and uneven rather than yearly.

Extreme poverty rate

Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 6 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Adult literacy and Extreme poverty rate

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Adult literacy changes Extreme poverty rate, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Adult literacy or Extreme poverty rate