placestats

Adult literacy vs. Birth rate

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 135 countries, Adult literacy and Birth rate rise and fall together at r = -0.78 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.47 (q = 0.049, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a moderate negative link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of birth rate, 10.8 to 27.5 per 1,000 people, adult literacy is worse by 23% of adults at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 19.1% of adults.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.781p = 6.0e-29 · 135 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.465p = 1.5e-8 · likely range [-0.59, -0.32]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.065 · 6 regions
Check for luck (q)0.049across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Adult literacy · % of adultslink with income +0.73 · high
Birth rate · per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.85 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Adult literacy · % of adults →Birth rate · per 1,000 people →30.6%100%4.246.2Aruba: 96.8% of adults, 7.59 per 1,000 peopleAfghanistan: 37.3% of adults, 35 per 1,000 peopleAngola: 68.2% of adults, 37.2 per 1,000 peopleAlbania: 97.7% of adults, 10.1 per 1,000 peopleUnited Arab Emirates: 98.8% of adults, 9.82 per 1,000 peopleArgentina: 99.1% of adults, 11.1 per 1,000 peopleArmenia: 99.8% of adults, 11.1 per 1,000 peopleAzerbaijan: 99.8% of adults, 10 per 1,000 peopleBurundi: 71.3% of adults, 33.2 per 1,000 peopleBenin: 51.4% of adults, 33.4 per 1,000 peopleBurkina Faso: 41.6% of adults, 31.3 per 1,000 peopleBangladesh: 79% of adults, 20 per 1,000 peopleBulgaria: 98.3% of adults, 8.3 per 1,000 peopleBahrain: 97.8% of adults, 12 per 1,000 peopleBosnia and Herzegovina: 97% of adults, 7.72 per 1,000 peopleBelarus: 99.9% of adults, 7.03 per 1,000 peopleBelize: 87.9% of adults, 18.1 per 1,000 peopleBolivia: 96.7% of adults, 21 per 1,000 peopleBrazil: 94.7% of adults, 12.1 per 1,000 peopleBrunei Darussalam: 96.1% of adults, 13.3 per 1,000 peopleBhutan: 64.9% of adults, 12.5 per 1,000 peopleCentral African Republic: 42.4% of adults, 46.2 per 1,000 peopleChile: 96.4% of adults, 8.72 per 1,000 peopleChina: 96.7% of adults, 6.77 per 1,000 peopleCote d'Ivoire: 50% of adults, 31.6 per 1,000 peopleCameroon: 72.6% of adults, 33.3 per 1,000 peopleCongo, Dem. Rep.: 68.5% of adults, 40.9 per 1,000 peopleColombia: 95.3% of adults, 13.3 per 1,000 peopleComoros: 75.6% of adults, 28.2 per 1,000 peopleCabo Verde: 88.5% of adults, 12.2 per 1,000 peopleCosta Rica: 97.4% of adults, 9.99 per 1,000 peopleCayman Islands: 98.9% of adults, 11.6 per 1,000 peopleCyprus: 98.7% of adults, 10.5 per 1,000 peopleDominican Republic: 94% of adults, 17.6 per 1,000 peopleEcuador: 93.5% of adults, 14.8 per 1,000 peopleEgypt, Arab Rep.: 79.5% of adults, 20.9 per 1,000 peopleSpain: 99.7% of adults, 6.5 per 1,000 peopleEstonia: 99.9% of adults, 7.1 per 1,000 peopleEthiopia: 60.5% of adults, 31.5 per 1,000 peopleGabon: 88.9% of adults, 27.1 per 1,000 peopleGeorgia: 99.7% of adults, 11.3 per 1,000 peopleGhana: 76.5% of adults, 25.9 per 1,000 peopleGuinea: 39.6% of adults, 33.3 per 1,000 peopleGambia, The: 51.6% of adults, 29.9 per 1,000 peopleGuinea-Bissau: 63.9% of adults, 29.6 per 1,000 peopleGuatemala: 82.1% of adults, 20.6 per 1,000 peopleGuyana: 85.6% of adults, 19.9 per 1,000 peopleHonduras: 88.3% of adults, 21.6 per 1,000 peopleHaiti: 68% of adults, 21.9 per 1,000 peopleIndonesia: 96% of adults, 15.8 per 1,000 peopleIndia: 78.2% of adults, 16 per 1,000 peopleIran, Islamic Rep.: 88.9% of adults, 12.6 per 1,000 peopleIraq: 84.1% of adults, 25.6 per 1,000 peopleItaly: 99.3% of adults, 6.3 per 1,000 peopleJordan: 94.4% of adults, 20.5 per 1,000 peopleCambodia: 71.9% of adults, 20.3 per 1,000 peopleKiribati: 98.6% of adults, 25.3 per 1,000 peopleKuwait: 96.5% of adults, 10 per 1,000 peopleLao PDR: 75.6% of adults, 20.9 per 1,000 peopleLebanon: 92% of adults, 16 per 1,000 peopleLiberia: 59.4% of adults, 30.6 per 1,000 peopleSri Lanka: 92.7% of adults, 10.1 per 1,000 peopleLesotho: 90.4% of adults, 23.8 per 1,000 peopleLithuania: 99.8% of adults, 6.6 per 1,000 peopleLatvia: 99.9% of adults, 6.9 per 1,000 peopleMacao SAR, China: 96.5% of adults, 5.3 per 1,000 peopleMorocco: 64.3% of adults, 16.4 per 1,000 peopleMoldova: 99.4% of adults, 10.6 per 1,000 peopleMadagascar: 74.7% of adults, 31.7 per 1,000 peopleMaldives: 98.2% of adults, 10.6 per 1,000 peopleMexico: 95.6% of adults, 15.5 per 1,000 peopleMarshall Islands: 95.8% of adults, 20.1 per 1,000 peopleMali: 35.6% of adults, 39.5 per 1,000 peopleMalta: 93.3% of adults, 7.7 per 1,000 peopleMyanmar: 93.5% of adults, 16.5 per 1,000 peopleMontenegro: 98.5% of adults, 11.2 per 1,000 peopleMongolia: 98.6% of adults, 16.9 per 1,000 peopleMozambique: 61.7% of adults, 37 per 1,000 peopleMauritania: 59.5% of adults, 34 per 1,000 peopleMauritius: 94.3% of adults, 10.3 per 1,000 peopleMalawi: 70.2% of adults, 31.1 per 1,000 peopleMalaysia: 95.8% of adults, 12.4 per 1,000 peopleNamibia: 87.6% of adults, 25.9 per 1,000 peopleNiger: 35.6% of adults, 41.4 per 1,000 peopleNigeria: 70.4% of adults, 32.5 per 1,000 peopleNicaragua: 87.3% of adults, 19.1 per 1,000 peopleNepal: 68.7% of adults, 19 per 1,000 peopleNaoero: 96.6% of adults, 24.6 per 1,000 peopleOman: 97.3% of adults, 16.8 per 1,000 peoplePakistan: 58.9% of adults, 27.4 per 1,000 peoplePanama: 96.2% of adults, 15.9 per 1,000 peoplePeru: 93.7% of adults, 15.8 per 1,000 peoplePhilippines: 98.5% of adults, 15.9 per 1,000 peoplePalau: 99.8% of adults, 10.7 per 1,000 peoplePapua New Guinea: 87% of adults, 24.3 per 1,000 peoplePuerto Rico (US): 92.4% of adults, 5.7 per 1,000 peoplePortugal: 94.5% of adults, 7.9 per 1,000 peopleParaguay: 94.9% of adults, 19.7 per 1,000 peopleWest Bank and Gaza: 97.9% of adults, 26.5 per 1,000 peopleQatar: 97.8% of adults, 9.52 per 1,000 peopleRomania: 99.2% of adults, 7.5 per 1,000 peopleRussian Federation: 99.9% of adults, 8.4 per 1,000 peopleRwanda: 78.8% of adults, 28.1 per 1,000 peopleSaudi Arabia: 97.9% of adults, 16.5 per 1,000 peopleSenegal: 50.4% of adults, 29.2 per 1,000 peopleSingapore: 97.7% of adults, 7.4 per 1,000 peopleSierra Leone: 43.6% of adults, 30.1 per 1,000 peopleEl Salvador: 89.8% of adults, 15.6 per 1,000 peopleSan Marino: 99.9% of adults, 4.2 per 1,000 peopleSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 54.1% of adults, 42.3 per 1,000 peopleSerbia: 99.3% of adults, 9.2 per 1,000 peopleSao Tome and Principe: 87.4% of adults, 28.1 per 1,000 peopleSuriname: 92.9% of adults, 17.2 per 1,000 peopleEswatini: 90.8% of adults, 23.6 per 1,000 peopleSeychelles: 93.9% of adults, 11 per 1,000 peopleSyrian Arab Republic: 94.4% of adults, 23.2 per 1,000 peopleChad: 30.6% of adults, 43.3 per 1,000 peopleTogo: 72.6% of adults, 32.1 per 1,000 peopleThailand: 91.1% of adults, 8.12 per 1,000 peopleTurkmenistan: 99.9% of adults, 20.9 per 1,000 peopleTimor-Leste: 69.4% of adults, 21.8 per 1,000 peopleTonga: 99.5% of adults, 23 per 1,000 peopleTunisia: 86.3% of adults, 13.4 per 1,000 peopleTurkiye: 97.3% of adults, 11 per 1,000 peopleTuvalu: 100% of adults, 22 per 1,000 peopleTanzania: 78.2% of adults, 34.8 per 1,000 peopleUganda: 77% of adults, 34.4 per 1,000 peopleUruguay: 98.9% of adults, 9.8 per 1,000 peopleUzbekistan: 100% of adults, 25.6 per 1,000 peopleViet Nam: 96.1% of adults, 13.4 per 1,000 peopleVanuatu: 88% of adults, 27.7 per 1,000 peopleSamoa: 98% of adults, 25 per 1,000 peopleSouth Africa: 91.2% of adults, 18.5 per 1,000 peopleZambia: 71.8% of adults, 32.7 per 1,000 peopleZimbabwe: 93.2% of adults, 29.9 per 1,000 peopleBTNCAFESPITAMARNERPSESLESMRTCDUZBZWE

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.7816.0e-29135
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.7411.0e-24135
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.4651.5e-8135
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3050.000135

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 135 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.316 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.486 (without BTN) to -0.438 (without TCD). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: TCD (+0.028).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23+0.03
Europe & Central Asia23+0.13
Latin America & Caribbean24-0.35
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan18-0.27
Sub-Saharan Africa41-0.51

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third45-0.58
Middle third45-0.17
Richest third45-0.41

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians72-0.47
Muslims42-0.53

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France22-0.66
Never a European colony16-0.16
Spain18+0.03
United Kingdom42-0.34

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.387 after dropping 5 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = -0.219) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = +0.031). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.465for comparison
Within countries-0.713each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.219q = 0.028 · 80 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.031q = 0.833
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

809 country-years (one country in one year), 80 countries, 1990–2024, about 10 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 12% for Adult literacy, 7% for Birth rate. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Birth rate trails Adult literacy →lag -10: r = -0.158 (n = 725)lag -9: r = -0.177 (n = 732)lag -8: r = -0.185 (n = 736)lag -7: r = -0.183 (n = 739)lag -6: r = -0.179 (n = 751)lag -5: r = -0.161 (n = 754)lag -4: r = -0.162 (n = 758)lag -3: r = -0.169 (n = 765)lag -2: r = -0.200 (n = 771)lag -1: r = -0.253 (n = 792)lag +0: r = -0.219 (n = 809)lag +1: r = -0.192 (n = 772)lag +2: r = -0.180 (n = 739)lag +3: r = -0.153 (n = 697)lag +4: r = -0.091 (n = 656)lag +5: r = -0.122 (n = 611)lag +6: r = -0.144 (n = 538)lag +7: r = -0.094 (n = 474)lag +8: r = -0.107 (n = 413)lag +9: r = -0.095 (n = 362)lag +10: r = -0.090 (n = 317)

Same year (lag 0): -0.219. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of adults
per 1,000 people		Years
Uzbekistan UZB100%25.62022, 2024
Tuvalu TUV100%222022, 2024
Russian Federation RUS99.9%8.42021, 2024
San Marino SMR99.9%4.22022, 2024
Turkmenistan TKM99.9%20.92022, 2024
Latvia LVA99.9%6.92011, 2024
Estonia EST99.9%7.12011, 2024
Belarus BLR99.9%7.032019, 2024
Palau PLW99.8%10.72020, 2024
Armenia ARM99.8%11.12023, 2024
Lithuania LTU99.8%6.62011, 2024
Azerbaijan AZE99.8%102023, 2024
Spain ESP99.7%6.52021, 2024
Georgia GEO99.7%11.32024
Tonga TON99.5%232023, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Adult literacy

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Reported only in census or survey years for most countries, so the data are sparse and uneven rather than yearly.

Birth rate

Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 6 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Adult literacy and Birth rate

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Adult literacy changes Birth rate, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Adult literacy or Birth rate