placestats

Abortion rate (legal, reported) vs. Birth rate

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 47 countries, Abortion rate (legal, reported) and Birth rate rise and fall together at r = +0.11 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.21, q = 0.025, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: leave-one-out range spans 0.20 in r.

Comparing countries across the middle half of abortion rate (legal, reported), 5.58 to 13.2 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, birth rate is 0.365 per 1,000 people higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.55 per 1,000 people.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.107p = 0.475 · 47 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.207p = 0.168 · likely range [-0.09, +0.47]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.018 · 4 regions
Check for luck (q)0.025across 14,952 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Abortion rate (legal, reported) · per 1,000 women aged 15-49link with income -0.03 · independent
Birth rate · per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.85 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Abortion rate (legal, reported) · per 1,000 women aged 15-49 →Birth rate · per 1,000 people →1.2365.44.925.6Albania: 1.23 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 10.1 per 1,000 peopleArmenia: 11.9 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 11.1 per 1,000 peopleAzerbaijan: 29.1 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 10 per 1,000 peopleBelgium: 7.75 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 9.2 per 1,000 peopleBulgaria: 14.2 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 8.3 per 1,000 peopleBelarus: 7.03 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 7.03 per 1,000 peopleSwitzerland: 5.79 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 8.7 per 1,000 peopleCzechia: 6.36 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 7.7 per 1,000 peopleGermany: 6.47 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 8.1 per 1,000 peopleDenmark: 12.1 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 9.5 per 1,000 peopleSpain: 9.79 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 6.5 per 1,000 peopleEstonia: 10.8 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 7.1 per 1,000 peopleFinland: 7.09 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 7.8 per 1,000 peopleFrance: 15 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 9.7 per 1,000 peopleFaroe Islands: 3.76 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 10.8 per 1,000 peopleUnited Kingdom: 13.2 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 9.89 per 1,000 peopleGeorgia: 13.5 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 11.3 per 1,000 peopleGreenland: 65.4 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 12 per 1,000 peopleHong Kong SAR, China: 3.61 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 4.9 per 1,000 peopleCroatia: 3.82 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 8.3 per 1,000 peopleHungary: 9.65 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 8.2 per 1,000 peopleIceland: 12.8 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 11.2 per 1,000 peopleItaly: 5.62 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 6.3 per 1,000 peopleJapan: 5.39 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 5.7 per 1,000 peopleKazakhstan: 13.8 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 19.5 per 1,000 peopleKyrgyz Republic: 11.2 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 19.4 per 1,000 peopleLithuania: 3.91 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 6.6 per 1,000 peopleLatvia: 6.3 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 6.9 per 1,000 peopleMoldova: 12.7 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 10.6 per 1,000 peopleNorth Macedonia: 7.54 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 8.8 per 1,000 peopleMontenegro: 4.33 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 11.2 per 1,000 peopleMongolia: 14.8 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 16.9 per 1,000 peopleNorway: 13.3 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 9.7 per 1,000 peopleNew Zealand: 13.7 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 11 per 1,000 peoplePortugal: 7.75 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 7.9 per 1,000 peopleRomania: 7.28 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 7.5 per 1,000 peopleRussian Federation: 28.2 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 8.4 per 1,000 peopleSingapore: 3.31 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 7.4 per 1,000 peopleSerbia: 5.55 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 9.2 per 1,000 peopleSlovak Republic: 4.78 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 8.5 per 1,000 peopleSlovenia: 7.08 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 7.9 per 1,000 peopleSweden: 15.7 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 9.3 per 1,000 peopleSeychelles: 14.7 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 11 per 1,000 peopleTajikistan: 5.82 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 25.3 per 1,000 peopleUkraine: 4.96 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 5.47 per 1,000 peopleUruguay: 12.9 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 9.8 per 1,000 peopleUzbekistan: 4.14 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, 25.6 per 1,000 peopleAZEGRLHKGJPNKGZRUSTJKUKRUZB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.1070.47547
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.4100.00447
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2070.16847
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4240.00347

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 47 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.100 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.070 (without GRL) to +0.275 (without UZB). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GRL (-0.137).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • leave-one-out range spans 0.20 in r
  • correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
Europe & Central Asia40+0.20

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third16+0.00
Middle third15+0.24
Richest third16+0.57

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians32+0.39

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.493 after dropping 8 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 17years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.004, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose abortion rate (legal, reported) moved did not tend to see their birth rate move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.207for comparison
Within countries+0.294each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.004q = 0.989 · 47 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.071q = 0.354
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

673 country-years (one country in one year), 47 countries, 2008–2024, about 14 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 8% for Abortion rate (legal, reported), 7% for Birth rate. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Birth rate trails Abortion rate (legal, reported) →lag -10: r = -0.137 (n = 673)lag -9: r = -0.130 (n = 673)lag -8: r = -0.131 (n = 673)lag -7: r = -0.136 (n = 673)lag -6: r = -0.106 (n = 673)lag -5: r = -0.058 (n = 673)lag -4: r = -0.039 (n = 673)lag -3: r = -0.040 (n = 673)lag -2: r = -0.034 (n = 673)lag -1: r = -0.013 (n = 673)lag +0: r = 0.004 (n = 673)lag +1: r = 0.031 (n = 658)lag +2: r = 0.022 (n = 620)lag +3: r = 0.005 (n = 587)lag +4: r = -0.015 (n = 550)lag +5: r = -0.063 (n = 512)lag +6: r = -0.114 (n = 474)lag +7: r = -0.131 (n = 428)lag +8: r = -0.175 (n = 383)lag +9: r = -0.158 (n = 338)lag +10: r = -0.223 (n = 297)

Same year (lag 0): +0.004. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


per 1,000 women aged 15-49
per 1,000 people		Years
Greenland GRL65.4122021, 2024
Azerbaijan AZE29.1102024
Russian Federation RUS28.28.42013, 2024
Sweden SWE15.79.32024
France FRA159.72019, 2024
Mongolia MNG14.816.92024
Seychelles SYC14.7112024
Bulgaria BGR14.28.32021, 2024
Kazakhstan KAZ13.819.52021, 2024
New Zealand NZL13.7112023, 2024
Georgia GEO13.511.32024
Norway NOR13.39.72011, 2024
United Kingdom GBR13.29.892016, 2024
Uruguay URY12.99.82022, 2024
Iceland ISL12.811.22018, 2024

United Nations Statistics Division, Demographic Yearbook, 2017 to 2024 editions: tables of marriages and crude marriage rates, of divorces and crude divorce rates, by urban/rural residence, and of legally induced abortions. Women aged 15 to 49 from the World Bank, World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0).
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Abortion rate (legal, reported)

Legal abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-49

United Nations Statistics Division · UNdata terms of use · updated annual (each edition covers the latest five years)

Legal abortions reported to the UN Demographic Yearbook, per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49 (women of childbearing age, counted by the World Bank). Only countries where abortion is legal on broad grounds and the national count covers the whole country are included. That is mostly Europe, the former Soviet Union and a few others, such as Japan, Cuba and New Zealand. Countries whose counts cover only hospitals, only medical reasons or only complications are left out, and so is any year a footnote says is missing part of the country (several years for Italy). Abortions outside the official system, such as pills bought online, are not counted anywhere. So the figure is a floor, not a full count. Where abortion is banned, there is no figure at all, which is not the same as no abortions. No "better" direction is set.

Birth rate

Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2011–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 4 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Abortion rate (legal, reported) and Birth rate

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Abortion rate (legal, reported) changes Birth rate, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Abortion rate (legal, reported) or Birth rate