Across 189 countries, Voice and accountability and Women in a union rise and fall together at r = -0.45 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.30 (q = 0.048, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak negative link remains.
Comparing countries across the middle half of women in a union, 51.6% to 62.4% of women aged 15-49, voice and accountability is worse by 0.571 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.347 points.
Link before adjusting (r)-0.451p = 7.6e-11 · 189 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.298p = 3.3e-5 · likely range [-0.42, -0.16]
p, allowing for regions0.009standard error 0.077 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.048across 17,292 pairs
How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.
Voice and accountability · index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5)link with income +0.55 · moderate
Women in a union · % of women aged 15-49link with income -0.44 · moderate
“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.
Every country as a dot
best-fit line line after adjusting
Four ways to measure the link
Method
r
p
Countries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted
-0.451
7.6e-11
189
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted
-0.499
2.8e-13
189
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income
-0.298
3.3e-5
189
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income
-0.340
1.8e-6
189
The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 189 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.153 (a minus sign means it grew).
How solid is it?
Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.326 (without SWZ) to -0.282 (without QAT). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SWZ (-0.028).
Within each region
Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.
n
r
East Asia & Pacific
29
-0.33
Europe & Central Asia
51
-0.28
Latin America & Caribbean
33
-0.28
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
21
-0.39
Sub-Saharan Africa
46
-0.40
By income third
If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.
n
r
Poorest third
63
-0.18
Middle third
63
-0.42
Richest third
63
-0.39
By largest religious group
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
Christians
109
-0.09
Muslims
49
+0.03
By last European coloniser
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
France
24
-0.13
Never a European colony
21
-0.48
Spain
19
-0.55
United Kingdom
61
-0.24
By official ideology
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
Nationalist
24
-0.23
No strong official ideology
117
-0.19
By party system
Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.
n
r
A few parties banned
26
-0.10
No parties banned
122
-0.18
Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.281 after dropping 7 countries.
Two series, one country
Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.
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Over time, within countries
Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 29years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.
Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.000, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose voice and accountability moved did not tend to see their women in a union move with it.
Across countries (adjusted)-0.298for comparison
Within countries-0.151each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.000q = 0.998 · 200 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.003q = 0.932
Read with care.
Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
4,233 country-years (one country in one year), 200 countries, 1996–2024, about 21 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 6% for Voice and accountability, 5% for Women in a union. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.
Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.
With one measure years behind the other
Same year (lag 0): +0.000. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.
This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.
The data
index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5)
% of women aged 15-49
Years
Norway NOR
1.82
57.4%
2025, 2021
Denmark DNK
1.78
54.3%
2025, 2024
Finland FIN
1.69
57.1%
2025, 2023
Sweden SWE
1.63
53.6%
2025, 2023
New Zealand NZL
1.61
57.7%
2025, 2018
Ireland IRL
1.6
47.1%
2025, 2022
Luxembourg LUX
1.6
51.1%
2025, 2022
Netherlands NLD
1.59
53.5%
2025, 2023
Germany DEU
1.54
54.4%
2025, 2023
Switzerland CHE
1.54
57.5%
2025, 2022
Canada CAN
1.5
51.6%
2025, 2021
Belgium BEL
1.43
52.4%
2025, 2021
Greenland GRL
1.42
38.8%
2025, 2022
Austria AUT
1.42
56.6%
2025, 2013
Australia AUS
1.42
54%
2025, 2021
Kaufmann, D. and A. Kraay, Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024 and Estimates and Projections of Women of Reproductive Age Who Are Married or in a Union
Share of women aged 15 to 49 who are married or in a union
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated biennial
A snapshot of how many women are in a union at one time, not a count of new unions each year. It counts couples living together as a union, which the OECD marriage rate does not. So the two can disagree without either being wrong, and their pair is worth reading for exactly that. The UN estimates it with a statistical model from survey and census data, for over two hundred countries. No "better" direction is set.
How this was computed
Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 17,292 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated V-Dem v16; V-Party v2. How the country data works · explore Voice and accountability and Women in a union
This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Voice and accountability changes Women in a union, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.
More links with Voice and accountability or Women in a union