placestats

Median age vs. Tuberculosis incidence

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 196 countries, Median age and Tuberculosis incidence rise and fall together at r = -0.50 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.13, which could easily be chance (q = 0.25, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of median age, 21.3 to 38.3 years, tuberculosis incidence is better by 133 per 100,000 people at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 58.4 per 100,000 people.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.505p = 4.5e-14 · 196 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.135p = 0.060 · likely range [-0.27, +0.01]
p, allowing for regions0.087standard error 0.066 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.249across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Median age · yearslink with income +0.86 · proxy
Tuberculosis incidence · per 100,000 peoplelink with income -0.67 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Median age · years →Tuberculosis incidence · per 100,000 people →14.3490945Aruba: 41 years, 8.3 per 100,000 peopleAfghanistan: 16.9 years, 203 per 100,000 peopleAngola: 16.5 years, 373 per 100,000 peopleAlbania: 36.3 years, 15 per 100,000 peopleAndorra: 43.2 years, 4.9 per 100,000 peopleUnited Arab Emirates: 31.2 years, 0.63 per 100,000 peopleArgentina: 32.1 years, 44 per 100,000 peopleArmenia: 35.8 years, 19 per 100,000 peopleAntigua and Barbuda: 35.5 years, 1.1 per 100,000 peopleAustralia: 37.8 years, 6.9 per 100,000 peopleAustria: 43.1 years, 4.9 per 100,000 peopleAzerbaijan: 32.6 years, 64 per 100,000 peopleBurundi: 15.9 years, 83 per 100,000 peopleBelgium: 41.4 years, 2.7 per 100,000 peopleBenin: 17.8 years, 40 per 100,000 peopleBurkina Faso: 17.3 years, 57 per 100,000 peopleBangladesh: 25.3 years, 221 per 100,000 peopleBulgaria: 44.3 years, 12 per 100,000 peopleBahrain: 32.9 years, 12 per 100,000 peopleBahamas, The: 34.6 years, 18 per 100,000 peopleBosnia and Herzegovina: 44.9 years, 21 per 100,000 peopleBelarus: 40.5 years, 17 per 100,000 peopleBelize: 25.9 years, 34 per 100,000 peopleBermuda: 45.1 years, 3.1 per 100,000 peopleBolivia: 24.7 years, 114 per 100,000 peopleBrazil: 33.9 years, 49 per 100,000 peopleBarbados: 38.9 years, 1 per 100,000 peopleBrunei Darussalam: 31.8 years, 65 per 100,000 peopleBhutan: 29.4 years, 191 per 100,000 peopleBotswana: 22.9 years, 143 per 100,000 peopleCentral African Republic: 14.3 years, 419 per 100,000 peopleCanada: 40.3 years, 6.2 per 100,000 peopleSwitzerland: 42.3 years, 5.4 per 100,000 peopleChile: 36 years, 19 per 100,000 peopleChina: 39.1 years, 49 per 100,000 peopleCote d'Ivoire: 18.1 years, 99 per 100,000 peopleCameroon: 17.8 years, 132 per 100,000 peopleCongo, Dem. Rep.: 15.8 years, 377 per 100,000 peopleCongo, Rep.: 18.3 years, 302 per 100,000 peopleColombia: 31.6 years, 49 per 100,000 peopleComoros: 20.3 years, 22 per 100,000 peopleCabo Verde: 27.9 years, 47 per 100,000 peopleCosta Rica: 34.1 years, 9.3 per 100,000 peopleCuracao: 38.2 years, 2.8 per 100,000 peopleCayman Islands: 37.9 years, 4.9 per 100,000 peopleCyprus: 37.8 years, 5.5 per 100,000 peopleCzechia: 42.7 years, 4.9 per 100,000 peopleGermany: 45.1 years, 5.4 per 100,000 peopleDjibouti: 24.4 years, 495 per 100,000 peopleDominica: 35.6 years, 4.5 per 100,000 peopleDenmark: 41.2 years, 3.2 per 100,000 peopleDominican Republic: 27.7 years, 51 per 100,000 peopleAlgeria: 28.2 years, 54 per 100,000 peopleEcuador: 28.4 years, 66 per 100,000 peopleEgypt, Arab Rep.: 24 years, 10 per 100,000 peopleSpain: 44.9 years, 7.9 per 100,000 peopleEstonia: 41.9 years, 8.2 per 100,000 peopleEthiopia: 18.7 years, 141 per 100,000 peopleFinland: 42.8 years, 3.7 per 100,000 peopleFiji: 27.7 years, 104 per 100,000 peopleFrance: 41.8 years, 7.8 per 100,000 peopleMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 22.9 years, 264 per 100,000 peopleGabon: 21.5 years, 371 per 100,000 peopleUnited Kingdom: 39.8 years, 9.7 per 100,000 peopleGeorgia: 36.8 years, 45 per 100,000 peopleGhana: 20.9 years, 126 per 100,000 peopleGuinea: 18 years, 178 per 100,000 peopleGambia, The: 18.2 years, 138 per 100,000 peopleGuinea-Bissau: 18.9 years, 176 per 100,000 peopleEquatorial Guinea: 21 years, 199 per 100,000 peopleGreece: 45.7 years, 3.6 per 100,000 peopleGrenada: 33.4 years, 1.7 per 100,000 peopleGreenland: 34.2 years, 139 per 100,000 peopleGuatemala: 22.6 years, 28 per 100,000 peopleGuyana: 25.6 years, 67 per 100,000 peopleHong Kong SAR, China: 46.2 years, 66 per 100,000 peopleHonduras: 23.5 years, 38 per 100,000 peopleCroatia: 44.8 years, 6.6 per 100,000 peopleHaiti: 23.5 years, 175 per 100,000 peopleHungary: 43.3 years, 5.6 per 100,000 peopleIndonesia: 29.8 years, 382 per 100,000 peopleIndia: 28.1 years, 187 per 100,000 peopleIreland: 38.4 years, 6.2 per 100,000 peopleIran, Islamic Rep.: 32.9 years, 10 per 100,000 peopleIraq: 20.3 years, 21 per 100,000 peopleIceland: 35.8 years, 3 per 100,000 peopleIsrael: 29.1 years, 2.4 per 100,000 peopleItaly: 47.5 years, 5 per 100,000 peopleJamaica: 31.7 years, 2.3 per 100,000 peopleJordan: 24.3 years, 3.5 per 100,000 peopleJapan: 49 years, 9.8 per 100,000 peopleKazakhstan: 29.5 years, 45 per 100,000 peopleKenya: 19.5 years, 207 per 100,000 peopleKyrgyz Republic: 25.1 years, 128 per 100,000 peopleCambodia: 25.8 years, 272 per 100,000 peopleKiribati: 22.7 years, 945 per 100,000 peopleSt. Kitts and Nevis: 35.3 years, 1.1 per 100,000 peopleKorea, Rep.: 44.5 years, 35 per 100,000 peopleKuwait: 34.5 years, 10 per 100,000 peopleLao PDR: 24.3 years, 127 per 100,000 peopleLebanon: 28.3 years, 13 per 100,000 peopleLiberia: 18.4 years, 207 per 100,000 peopleLibya: 27.2 years, 63 per 100,000 peopleSt. Lucia: 33.7 years, 0.56 per 100,000 peopleSri Lanka: 32.8 years, 59 per 100,000 peopleLesotho: 21.4 years, 548 per 100,000 peopleLithuania: 42.1 years, 31 per 100,000 peopleLuxembourg: 38.9 years, 7.5 per 100,000 peopleLatvia: 43.1 years, 21 per 100,000 peopleMacao SAR, China: 38.3 years, 59 per 100,000 peopleMorocco: 29.2 years, 98 per 100,000 peopleMoldova: 37.8 years, 64 per 100,000 peopleMadagascar: 18.9 years, 224 per 100,000 peopleMaldives: 31.1 years, 40 per 100,000 peopleMexico: 28.9 years, 28 per 100,000 peopleMarshall Islands: 20.7 years, 411 per 100,000 peopleNorth Macedonia: 40.3 years, 11 per 100,000 peopleMali: 15.5 years, 51 per 100,000 peopleMalta: 40.3 years, 15 per 100,000 peopleMyanmar: 29.5 years, 482 per 100,000 peopleMontenegro: 39.3 years, 16 per 100,000 peopleMongolia: 26.8 years, 446 per 100,000 peopleMozambique: 16.3 years, 361 per 100,000 peopleMauritania: 17.1 years, 65 per 100,000 peopleMauritius: 36.9 years, 13 per 100,000 peopleMalawi: 17.6 years, 113 per 100,000 peopleMalaysia: 30.1 years, 96 per 100,000 peopleNamibia: 21 years, 422 per 100,000 peopleNiger: 15.3 years, 86 per 100,000 peopleNigeria: 17.8 years, 219 per 100,000 peopleNicaragua: 25.3 years, 43 per 100,000 peopleNetherlands: 41.4 years, 4.7 per 100,000 peopleNorway: 39.5 years, 3.3 per 100,000 peopleNepal: 24.7 years, 227 per 100,000 peopleNaoero: 20.4 years, 161 per 100,000 peopleNew Zealand: 37.3 years, 7.9 per 100,000 peopleOman: 29.3 years, 11 per 100,000 peoplePakistan: 20.3 years, 266 per 100,000 peoplePanama: 29.6 years, 63 per 100,000 peoplePeru: 29.5 years, 139 per 100,000 peoplePhilippines: 25.3 years, 625 per 100,000 peoplePalau: 37.8 years, 28 per 100,000 peoplePapua New Guinea: 22.3 years, 664 per 100,000 peoplePoland: 41.3 years, 11 per 100,000 peoplePuerto Rico (US): 45.3 years, 0.55 per 100,000 peoplePortugal: 46.2 years, 15 per 100,000 peopleParaguay: 26.3 years, 81 per 100,000 peopleWest Bank and Gaza: 19.8 years, 0.29 per 100,000 peopleQatar: 33.2 years, 37 per 100,000 peopleRomania: 42.6 years, 60 per 100,000 peopleRussian Federation: 39.5 years, 34 per 100,000 peopleRwanda: 19.4 years, 62 per 100,000 peopleSaudi Arabia: 29.2 years, 8.4 per 100,000 peopleSudan: 18.3 years, 47 per 100,000 peopleSenegal: 19.1 years, 132 per 100,000 peopleSingapore: 35.1 years, 43 per 100,000 peopleSolomon Islands: 20.3 years, 123 per 100,000 peopleSierra Leone: 19.3 years, 372 per 100,000 peopleEl Salvador: 27 years, 116 per 100,000 peopleSan Marino: 47.4 years, 0 per 100,000 peopleSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 15.4 years, 151 per 100,000 peopleSerbia: 43.9 years, 8.7 per 100,000 peopleSao Tome and Principe: 19.1 years, 87 per 100,000 peopleSuriname: 28.1 years, 34 per 100,000 peopleSlovak Republic: 41.3 years, 3.3 per 100,000 peopleSlovenia: 43.9 years, 2.6 per 100,000 peopleSweden: 39.9 years, 3.3 per 100,000 peopleEswatini: 22 years, 319 per 100,000 peopleSint Maarten (Dutch part): 41.6 years, 6.9 per 100,000 peopleSeychelles: 33.7 years, 17 per 100,000 peopleSyrian Arab Republic: 22.2 years, 23 per 100,000 peopleTurks and Caicos Islands: 38.3 years, 8.6 per 100,000 peopleChad: 15.4 years, 118 per 100,000 peopleTogo: 18.1 years, 48 per 100,000 peopleThailand: 39.7 years, 146 per 100,000 peopleTajikistan: 21.9 years, 75 per 100,000 peopleTurkmenistan: 26.2 years, 40 per 100,000 peopleTimor-Leste: 21 years, 496 per 100,000 peopleTonga: 20.7 years, 1.9 per 100,000 peopleTrinidad and Tobago: 36.7 years, 27 per 100,000 peopleTunisia: 32.1 years, 39 per 100,000 peopleTurkiye: 32.5 years, 13 per 100,000 peopleTuvalu: 24.3 years, 223 per 100,000 peopleTanzania: 17.2 years, 172 per 100,000 peopleUganda: 16.5 years, 197 per 100,000 peopleUkraine: 42 years, 86 per 100,000 peopleUruguay: 35.8 years, 47 per 100,000 peopleUnited States: 38 years, 3.2 per 100,000 peopleUzbekistan: 26.9 years, 51 per 100,000 peopleSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 33.9 years, 4.6 per 100,000 peopleViet Nam: 32.4 years, 182 per 100,000 peopleVanuatu: 20.1 years, 44 per 100,000 peopleSamoa: 19.9 years, 5.5 per 100,000 peopleSouth Africa: 28.2 years, 389 per 100,000 peopleZambia: 17.5 years, 272 per 100,000 peopleZimbabwe: 17.8 years, 203 per 100,000 peopleITAJPNKIRMLIPHLPNGPSESMRWSM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5054.5e-14196
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.6642.6e-26196
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1350.060196
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2290.001196

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 196 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.370 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.172 (without KIR) to -0.114 (without GAB). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: KIR (-0.038).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific31-0.02
Europe & Central Asia51-0.41
Latin America & Caribbean37-0.46
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22-0.02
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.15

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third66+0.20
Middle third65-0.22
Richest third65-0.39

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians111-0.17
Muslims49-0.03

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.04
Never a European colony21-0.09
Spain20-0.14
United Kingdom63-0.05

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.239 after dropping 18 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 24years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = +0.101) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = +0.020). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.135for comparison
Within countries-0.266each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.101q = 0.036 · 208 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.020q = 0.405
The direction flips. Comparing each country only with itself gives -0.27. Also taking out what happened to the whole world each year gives +0.10. So the first figure was picking up a trend both measures share with worldwide progress, not a link between them.
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

4,949 country-years (one country in one year), 208 countries, 2000–2023, about 24 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 5% for Median age, 16% for Tuberculosis incidence. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Tuberculosis incidence trails Median age →lag -10: r = 0.034 (n = 2,858)lag -9: r = 0.043 (n = 3,073)lag -8: r = 0.051 (n = 3,285)lag -7: r = 0.056 (n = 3,493)lag -6: r = 0.062 (n = 3,701)lag -5: r = 0.062 (n = 3,909)lag -4: r = 0.070 (n = 4,117)lag -3: r = 0.080 (n = 4,325)lag -2: r = 0.089 (n = 4,533)lag -1: r = 0.097 (n = 4,741)lag +0: r = 0.101 (n = 4,949)lag +1: r = 0.108 (n = 5,157)lag +2: r = 0.113 (n = 5,157)lag +3: r = 0.117 (n = 5,157)lag +4: r = 0.121 (n = 5,157)lag +5: r = 0.125 (n = 5,157)lag +6: r = 0.130 (n = 5,157)lag +7: r = 0.137 (n = 5,157)lag +8: r = 0.143 (n = 5,157)lag +9: r = 0.149 (n = 5,157)lag +10: r = 0.155 (n = 5,157)

Same year (lag 0): +0.101. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


years
per 100,000 people		Years
Japan JPN499.82023, 2024
Italy ITA47.552023, 2024
San Marino SMR47.402023, 2024
Portugal PRT46.2152023, 2024
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG46.2662023, 2024
Greece GRC45.73.62023, 2024
Puerto Rico (US) PRI45.30.552023, 2024
Germany DEU45.15.42023, 2024
Bermuda BMU45.13.12023, 2024
Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH44.9212023, 2024
Spain ESP44.97.92023, 2024
Croatia HRV44.86.62023, 2024
Korea, Rep. KOR44.5352023, 2024
Bulgaria BGR44.3122023, 2024
Slovenia SVN43.92.62023, 2024

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024 and Estimates and Projections of Women of Reproductive Age Who Are Married or in a Union
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Median age

Median age of the population

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated biennial

The age that splits a population in half: half are older and half are younger. The shares aged under 15 and over 65 are already on the site. All three are treated as measuring the same thing. They are readings of the same age pyramid, so they are bound to match, and their agreement is not a finding. No "better" direction is set.

Tuberculosis incidence

Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2023–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Median age and Tuberculosis incidence

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Median age changes Tuberculosis incidence, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Median age or Tuberculosis incidence