placestats

Government expense vs. Legal system and property rights (Fraser)

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 132 countries, Government expense and Legal system and property rights (Fraser) rise and fall together at r = +0.50 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.19, which could easily be chance (q = 0.23, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of legal system and property rights (Fraser), 4.54 to 6.75 points, government expense is 6.98% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.8% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.501p = 9.2e-10 · 132 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.188p = 0.032 · likely range [+0.02, +0.35]
p, allowing for regions0.196standard error 0.129 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.228across 17,292 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Government expense · % of GDPlink with income +0.44 · moderate
Legal system and property rights (Fraser) · rating (0-10)link with income +0.81 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Government expense · % of GDP →Legal system and property rights (Fraser) · rating (0-10) →3.77%65.6%1.929.1Angola: 14.6% of GDP, 3.33 rating (0-10)Albania: 25.4% of GDP, 5.61 rating (0-10)United Arab Emirates: 3.77% of GDP, 7.09 rating (0-10)Argentina: 21% of GDP, 5.15 rating (0-10)Armenia: 20.9% of GDP, 5.86 rating (0-10)Australia: 27.6% of GDP, 8.69 rating (0-10)Austria: 46% of GDP, 8.46 rating (0-10)Azerbaijan: 23% of GDP, 5.09 rating (0-10)Burundi: 12.3% of GDP, 3.35 rating (0-10)Belgium: 39.7% of GDP, 7.64 rating (0-10)Burkina Faso: 19.6% of GDP, 3.62 rating (0-10)Bangladesh: 8.32% of GDP, 2.9 rating (0-10)Bulgaria: 35.8% of GDP, 5.84 rating (0-10)Bahrain: 26.1% of GDP, 5.25 rating (0-10)Bahamas, The: 20.3% of GDP, 5.57 rating (0-10)Bosnia and Herzegovina: 35.3% of GDP, 4.59 rating (0-10)Belarus: 28.5% of GDP, 4.28 rating (0-10)Belize: 22.3% of GDP, 4.09 rating (0-10)Brazil: 32.4% of GDP, 5.34 rating (0-10)Barbados: 28.8% of GDP, 5.62 rating (0-10)Bhutan: 24.1% of GDP, 6.73 rating (0-10)Botswana: 26.5% of GDP, 6.24 rating (0-10)Central African Republic: 11.7% of GDP, 2.03 rating (0-10)Canada: 19.1% of GDP, 8.31 rating (0-10)Switzerland: 16.1% of GDP, 8.98 rating (0-10)Chile: 24.6% of GDP, 6.96 rating (0-10)Cote d'Ivoire: 17.9% of GDP, 5.13 rating (0-10)Cameroon: 12.4% of GDP, 2.86 rating (0-10)Congo, Dem. Rep.: 12.4% of GDP, 2.68 rating (0-10)Congo, Rep.: 16.1% of GDP, 3.1 rating (0-10)Colombia: 33.3% of GDP, 5.06 rating (0-10)Cabo Verde: 30.9% of GDP, 6.33 rating (0-10)Costa Rica: 28.6% of GDP, 6.62 rating (0-10)Cyprus: 38.5% of GDP, 6.7 rating (0-10)Czechia: 34.4% of GDP, 7.64 rating (0-10)Germany: 31.2% of GDP, 8.03 rating (0-10)Denmark: 33.3% of GDP, 9.09 rating (0-10)Dominican Republic: 18.1% of GDP, 5.29 rating (0-10)Ecuador: 30.4% of GDP, 4.87 rating (0-10)Egypt, Arab Rep.: 30.2% of GDP, 3.36 rating (0-10)Spain: 34% of GDP, 7.36 rating (0-10)Estonia: 37.7% of GDP, 8.01 rating (0-10)Ethiopia: 6.12% of GDP, 4.25 rating (0-10)Finland: 44.9% of GDP, 8.88 rating (0-10)Fiji: 27.8% of GDP, 4.87 rating (0-10)France: 47.3% of GDP, 7.41 rating (0-10)Gabon: 14.1% of GDP, 3.73 rating (0-10)United Kingdom: 41.2% of GDP, 7.92 rating (0-10)Georgia: 25.2% of GDP, 6.09 rating (0-10)Ghana: 22.7% of GDP, 5.25 rating (0-10)Guinea-Bissau: 15.5% of GDP, 2.77 rating (0-10)Greece: 47.3% of GDP, 6.22 rating (0-10)Guatemala: 13.5% of GDP, 4.78 rating (0-10)Honduras: 24.4% of GDP, 4.11 rating (0-10)Croatia: 38.1% of GDP, 6.2 rating (0-10)Hungary: 42.4% of GDP, 6.69 rating (0-10)India: 13.7% of GDP, 5.28 rating (0-10)Ireland: 19.2% of GDP, 8.07 rating (0-10)Iraq: 27.6% of GDP, 2.44 rating (0-10)Iceland: 32% of GDP, 8.81 rating (0-10)Israel: 37.3% of GDP, 6.14 rating (0-10)Italy: 47.3% of GDP, 6.74 rating (0-10)Jamaica: 27.5% of GDP, 5.83 rating (0-10)Jordan: 25.9% of GDP, 4.62 rating (0-10)Japan: 20.1% of GDP, 7.93 rating (0-10)Kazakhstan: 17.4% of GDP, 5.72 rating (0-10)Kenya: 27.8% of GDP, 4.73 rating (0-10)Kyrgyz Republic: 23.7% of GDP, 4.58 rating (0-10)Cambodia: 12.9% of GDP, 3.92 rating (0-10)Korea, Rep.: 28.3% of GDP, 6.81 rating (0-10)Lao PDR: 10.3% of GDP, 4.54 rating (0-10)Lebanon: 6.3% of GDP, 3.59 rating (0-10)Sri Lanka: 18% of GDP, 5.12 rating (0-10)Lesotho: 40.2% of GDP, 4.76 rating (0-10)Lithuania: 33.9% of GDP, 7.67 rating (0-10)Luxembourg: 42.2% of GDP, 8.63 rating (0-10)Latvia: 34.2% of GDP, 7.61 rating (0-10)Morocco: 26.6% of GDP, 5.31 rating (0-10)Moldova: 34.5% of GDP, 5.77 rating (0-10)Madagascar: 11% of GDP, 3.08 rating (0-10)Mexico: 22.5% of GDP, 4.27 rating (0-10)North Macedonia: 33.4% of GDP, 4.72 rating (0-10)Mali: 12.2% of GDP, 3.53 rating (0-10)Malta: 33.7% of GDP, 6.89 rating (0-10)Myanmar: 13.8% of GDP, 3.27 rating (0-10)Mongolia: 31.7% of GDP, 6.06 rating (0-10)Mozambique: 26% of GDP, 4.7 rating (0-10)Mauritius: 29.1% of GDP, 6.87 rating (0-10)Malawi: 20.2% of GDP, 4.72 rating (0-10)Malaysia: 17% of GDP, 5.95 rating (0-10)Namibia: 36.2% of GDP, 5.93 rating (0-10)Nicaragua: 16.3% of GDP, 3.49 rating (0-10)Netherlands: 40% of GDP, 8.56 rating (0-10)Norway: 34.5% of GDP, 9.05 rating (0-10)Nepal: 19.4% of GDP, 4.83 rating (0-10)New Zealand: 35.5% of GDP, 9.1 rating (0-10)Panama: 17.1% of GDP, 5.79 rating (0-10)Peru: 22.8% of GDP, 5.19 rating (0-10)Philippines: 16.9% of GDP, 4.72 rating (0-10)Papua New Guinea: 20.3% of GDP, 4.72 rating (0-10)Poland: 39.1% of GDP, 6.76 rating (0-10)Portugal: 37.2% of GDP, 7.41 rating (0-10)Paraguay: 18.9% of GDP, 4.47 rating (0-10)Romania: 37.3% of GDP, 6.69 rating (0-10)Russian Federation: 30% of GDP, 4.86 rating (0-10)Rwanda: 18% of GDP, 6.07 rating (0-10)Saudi Arabia: 24.2% of GDP, 6.22 rating (0-10)Sudan: 9.73% of GDP, 1.92 rating (0-10)Senegal: 23.6% of GDP, 4.28 rating (0-10)Singapore: 17.1% of GDP, 8.47 rating (0-10)El Salvador: 27.9% of GDP, 4.33 rating (0-10)Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.35% of GDP, 2.19 rating (0-10)Serbia: 35.5% of GDP, 5.38 rating (0-10)Slovak Republic: 39.8% of GDP, 6.74 rating (0-10)Slovenia: 42.9% of GDP, 7.11 rating (0-10)Sweden: 32.5% of GDP, 8.3 rating (0-10)Eswatini: 24.6% of GDP, 3.11 rating (0-10)Togo: 16% of GDP, 5.03 rating (0-10)Thailand: 20.7% of GDP, 5.37 rating (0-10)Tajikistan: 11% of GDP, 4.2 rating (0-10)Timor-Leste: 52.5% of GDP, 3.9 rating (0-10)Trinidad and Tobago: 33.3% of GDP, 5.18 rating (0-10)Tunisia: 33.8% of GDP, 4.54 rating (0-10)Turkiye: 33% of GDP, 4.91 rating (0-10)Tanzania: 16.3% of GDP, 5.11 rating (0-10)Uganda: 16.6% of GDP, 4.66 rating (0-10)Ukraine: 65.6% of GDP, 4.57 rating (0-10)Uruguay: 36.5% of GDP, 6.09 rating (0-10)United States: 24.4% of GDP, 7.88 rating (0-10)South Africa: 33.4% of GDP, 5.72 rating (0-10)Zambia: 25.1% of GDP, 4.96 rating (0-10)Zimbabwe: 11% of GDP, 3.63 rating (0-10)AREAUTCAFCHEFINIRQLUXSDNSGPSOMTLSUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5019.2e-10132
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5583.8e-12132
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1880.032132
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2230.011132

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 132 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.314 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.167 (without LSO) to +0.234 (without UKR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: UKR (+0.046).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific15+0.44
Europe & Central Asia45-0.03
Latin America & Caribbean21+0.30
Sub-Saharan Africa33+0.58

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third44+0.45
Middle third44-0.01
Richest third44+0.23

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians89+0.16
Muslims25-0.13

By last European coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France14+0.37
Never a European colony14-0.19
Spain17+0.32
United Kingdom40+0.19

By official ideology

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Nationalist19+0.23
No strong official ideology92+0.17

By party system

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
A few parties banned18+0.05
No parties banned103+0.25

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.234 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.021, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose government expense moved did not tend to see their legal system and property rights (Fraser) move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.188for comparison
Within countries+0.058each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.021q = 0.799 · 136 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.012q = 0.833
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

2,736 country-years (one country in one year), 136 countries, 1990–2024, about 20 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 3% for Government expense, 11% for Legal system and property rights (Fraser). The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Legal system and property rights (Fraser) trails Government expense →lag -10: r = 0.017 (n = 1,792)lag -9: r = 0.036 (n = 1,911)lag -8: r = 0.036 (n = 2,007)lag -7: r = 0.032 (n = 2,093)lag -6: r = 0.050 (n = 2,183)lag -5: r = 0.031 (n = 2,286)lag -4: r = 0.020 (n = 2,396)lag -3: r = 0.017 (n = 2,492)lag -2: r = -0.005 (n = 2,575)lag -1: r = -0.035 (n = 2,658)lag +0: r = -0.021 (n = 2,736)lag +1: r = -0.014 (n = 2,753)lag +2: r = -0.015 (n = 2,756)lag +3: r = -0.014 (n = 2,732)lag +4: r = -0.013 (n = 2,690)lag +5: r = -0.020 (n = 2,647)lag +6: r = -0.029 (n = 2,528)lag +7: r = -0.037 (n = 2,459)lag +8: r = -0.043 (n = 2,403)lag +9: r = -0.041 (n = 2,350)lag +10: r = -0.048 (n = 2,292)

Same year (lag 0): -0.021. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of GDP
rating (0-10)		Years
Ukraine UKR65.6%4.572023, 2024
Timor-Leste TLS52.5%3.92022, 2024
Greece GRC47.3%6.222023, 2024
Italy ITA47.3%6.742023, 2024
France FRA47.3%7.412023, 2024
Austria AUT46%8.462023, 2024
Finland FIN44.9%8.882023, 2024
Slovenia SVN42.9%7.112023, 2024
Hungary HUN42.4%6.692022, 2024
Luxembourg LUX42.2%8.632023, 2024
United Kingdom GBR41.2%7.922023, 2024
Lesotho LSO40.2%4.762022, 2024
Netherlands NLD40%8.562023, 2024
Slovak Republic SVK39.8%6.742022, 2024
Belgium BEL39.7%7.642022, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Gwartney, J., Lawson, R., Murphy, R. and others, Economic Freedom of the World: 2026 Annual Report, Fraser Institute. Data from the EFW panel dataset (efotw-2026-master-index-data-for-researchers-iso.xlsx).

Sources

Government expense

Government expense (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Total central government spending, as a share of GDP: buying, payments to people, subsidies and interest together. From the IMF's Government Finance Statistics. It is the fuller measure of government size, but it covers fewer countries. It counts central government only, so a country with large state and local budgets looks low. About forty fewer countries report it than report government consumption. No "better" direction is set.

Legal system and property rights (Fraser)

Economic freedom, area 2, legal system and property rights (Fraser Institute)

Fraser Institute · No licence stated; used with citation · updated annual

Whether courts are independent and fair, contracts are enforced, property is protected and the police are reliable, from 0 to 10. It draws on some of the same expert sources as other rule-of-law measures, so expect it to track them closely.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 17,292 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated V-Dem v16; V-Party v2. How the country data works · explore Government expense and Legal system and property rights (Fraser)

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Government expense changes Legal system and property rights (Fraser), or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Government expense or Legal system and property rights (Fraser)