placestats

Governing party, economic left to right vs. Investment share of GDP

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 148 countries, Governing party, economic left to right and Investment share of GDP rise and fall together at r = -0.17 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.22, q = 0.046, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of investment share of GDP, 17.2% to 27.6% of GDP, governing party, economic left to right is 0.212 scale lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.286 scale.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.172p = 0.037 · 148 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.216p = 0.009 · likely range [-0.37, -0.06]
p, allowing for regions0.010standard error 0.058 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.046across 18,622 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Governing party, economic left to right · scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right)link with income +0.08 · independent
Investment share of GDP · % of GDPlink with income +0.41 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Governing party, economic left to right · scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right) →Investment share of GDP · % of GDP →1.115.373.41%50.8%Angola: 2.94 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 11% of GDPAlbania: 2.45 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 25.4% of GDPArgentina: 2.52 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 15% of GDPArmenia: 4.2 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 18.2% of GDPAustralia: 3.82 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 24.3% of GDPAustria: 3.72 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 28.9% of GDPAzerbaijan: 3.67 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 15.1% of GDPBurundi: 3.71 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 8.84% of GDPBelgium: 3.92 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 34.9% of GDPBenin: 2.85 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 26.2% of GDPBurkina Faso: 1.82 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 15.1% of GDPBangladesh: 2.96 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 28.7% of GDPBulgaria: 3.39 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 18.3% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 4.79 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 24% of GDPBolivia: 1.11 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 17.3% of GDPBrazil: 5.37 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 17.9% of GDPBarbados: 2.13 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 39% of GDPBhutan: 3.37 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 30.1% of GDPBotswana: 3.48 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 26.7% of GDPCentral African Republic: 4.12 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 22.2% of GDPCanada: 2.01 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.8% of GDPChile: 4.39 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 22.9% of GDPChina: 2.64 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 42.9% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 4.76 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.8% of GDPCameroon: 3.49 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 13.7% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 1.13 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 47.6% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 1.36 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 21.2% of GDPColombia: 5.05 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 13.3% of GDPComoros: 3.91 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 14.2% of GDPCabo Verde: 3.74 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 10.4% of GDPCosta Rica: 2.94 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 17% of GDPCyprus: 4.65 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 35.5% of GDPCzechia: 2.47 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 31.2% of GDPGermany: 3.66 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.2% of GDPDjibouti: 2.66 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 38.9% of GDPDenmark: 1.91 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.9% of GDPDominican Republic: 3.99 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 28% of GDPAlgeria: 1.67 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 30.7% of GDPEcuador: 1.64 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 22.1% of GDPEgypt, Arab Rep.: 4.19 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 8.45% of GDPSpain: 1.93 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27% of GDPEstonia: 2.2 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 36.9% of GDPEthiopia: 1.77 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 12.7% of GDPFinland: 1.79 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.1% of GDPFiji: 3.29 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 11.9% of GDPFrance: 3.61 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.2% of GDPGabon: 2.82 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 16.6% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 4.64 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 22.6% of GDPGeorgia: 2.62 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 22.8% of GDPGhana: 3.64 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 12.7% of GDPGuinea: 4.52 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 7.38% of GDPGambia, The: 3.5 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 18.9% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 2.28 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 3.69% of GDPEquatorial Guinea: 4.83 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 5.68% of GDPGreece: 4.04 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.7% of GDPGuatemala: 4.92 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 19.7% of GDPGuyana: 3.12 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 13.5% of GDPHonduras: 4.71 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 20.5% of GDPCroatia: 3.86 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 25.7% of GDPHaiti: 4.33 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 11.7% of GDPHungary: 4.33 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 28.2% of GDPIndonesia: 2.29 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 31.4% of GDPIndia: 4.7 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.8% of GDPIreland: 3.32 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 31.3% of GDPIran, Islamic Rep.: 3.38 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 25.8% of GDPIraq: 3.36 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 9.14% of GDPIceland: 2.99 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 34.8% of GDPIsrael: 4.25 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 30.5% of GDPItaly: 2.2 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 29.9% of GDPJamaica: 3.83 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 16.9% of GDPJapan: 4.43 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 26.4% of GDPKazakhstan: 3.04 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 25.1% of GDPKenya: 4.39 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 13.8% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 2.83 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.1% of GDPCambodia: 3.43 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 29.1% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 4.8 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 33.5% of GDPLao PDR: 2.01 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 21.6% of GDPLiberia: 2.17 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 17.4% of GDPSri Lanka: 4.16 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 17.5% of GDPLesotho: 2.48 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.2% of GDPLithuania: 2.77 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.4% of GDPLuxembourg: 3.1 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 30.6% of GDPLatvia: 4.1 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.6% of GDPMorocco: 2.61 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 26.1% of GDPMoldova: 3.15 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 3.76% of GDPMadagascar: 3.57 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 10.3% of GDPMaldives: 3.84 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 37.7% of GDPMexico: 1.52 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 20.7% of GDPNorth Macedonia: 1.87 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 26.5% of GDPMali: 3.12 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 12.5% of GDPMalta: 3.49 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 28.6% of GDPMyanmar: 2.51 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 24.5% of GDPMontenegro: 3.29 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.2% of GDPMongolia: 2.19 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.4% of GDPMozambique: 2.39 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 20% of GDPMauritania: 4.66 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 29.7% of GDPMauritius: 2.66 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 20.1% of GDPMalawi: 3.96 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 10.7% of GDPMalaysia: 2.04 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 22.2% of GDPNamibia: 2.99 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 31.3% of GDPNiger: 2.02 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 19.1% of GDPNigeria: 1.81 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 29.3% of GDPNicaragua: 2.94 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 21.7% of GDPNetherlands: 4.28 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.9% of GDPNorway: 4.42 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.4% of GDPNepal: 2.93 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23% of GDPNew Zealand: 2.21 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 20.4% of GDPPakistan: 3.75 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 8.76% of GDPPanama: 2.5 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 50.8% of GDPPeru: 4.2 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 21.7% of GDPPhilippines: 3.85 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 22.1% of GDPPoland: 2.2 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 18.2% of GDPPortugal: 2.46 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 26.2% of GDPParaguay: 4.38 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 20.8% of GDPRomania: 2.02 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 25.3% of GDPRussian Federation: 2.99 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 25.9% of GDPRwanda: 3 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 14.8% of GDPSudan: 3.46 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 9.21% of GDPSenegal: 3.36 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 38.8% of GDPSingapore: 4.65 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 25.4% of GDPSierra Leone: 3.91 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 11.2% of GDPEl Salvador: 1.82 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 21.3% of GDPSerbia: 3.97 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 24.7% of GDPSao Tome and Principe: 3.02 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 14.4% of GDPSuriname: 1.53 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 41.4% of GDPSlovak Republic: 1.88 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23% of GDPSlovenia: 2.22 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 29.3% of GDPSweden: 2.06 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.8% of GDPSeychelles: 1.39 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 18.2% of GDPSyrian Arab Republic: 1.47 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 3.41% of GDPChad: 3.85 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 19.4% of GDPTogo: 4.38 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 18.2% of GDPThailand: 5.16 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 18.2% of GDPTajikistan: 3.35 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 30.8% of GDPTurkmenistan: 2.03 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 26.7% of GDPTrinidad and Tobago: 3.67 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 13.5% of GDPTunisia: 3.67 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 10.1% of GDPTurkiye: 4.48 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.2% of GDPTanzania: 1.63 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 27.1% of GDPUganda: 3.81 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 19.3% of GDPUkraine: 3.92 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 12.6% of GDPUruguay: 4.08 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 18.1% of GDPUnited States: 4.5 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.1% of GDPUzbekistan: 3.68 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 29.6% of GDPViet Nam: 4.01 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 28.4% of GDPSouth Africa: 1.79 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 16.6% of GDPZambia: 2.89 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 23.1% of GDPZimbabwe: 2.24 scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right), 19.3% of GDPBOLCODCOLCYPGINGNBGNQKORPANSURSYR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.1720.037148
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.1390.093148
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2160.009148
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1850.025148

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 148 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.044 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.244 (without SYR) to -0.175 (without COD). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: COD (+0.041).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific16-0.09
Europe & Central Asia46-0.11
Latin America & Caribbean23-0.36
Sub-Saharan Africa44-0.31

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third50-0.23
Middle third49-0.31
Richest third49-0.03

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians92-0.30
Muslims36-0.10

By last European coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24+0.03
Never a European colony18-0.22
Spain19-0.26
United Kingdom39-0.17

By official ideology

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Nationalist22+0.36
No strong official ideology105-0.27

By party system

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
A few parties banned24-0.37
No parties banned112-0.18

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.164 after dropping 2 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 30years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.020, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose governing party, economic left to right moved did not tend to see their investment share of GDP move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.216for comparison
Within countries+0.023each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.020q = 0.681 · 136 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —

966 country-years (one country in one year), 136 countries, 1990–2019, about 7 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 44% for Governing party, economic left to right, 57% for Investment share of GDP. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Investment share of GDP trails Governing party, economic left to right →lag -10: r = -0.039 (n = 352)lag -9: r = -0.063 (n = 473)lag -8: r = -0.090 (n = 524)lag -7: r = -0.063 (n = 610)lag -6: r = -0.022 (n = 680)lag -5: r = -0.071 (n = 725)lag -4: r = -0.026 (n = 790)lag -3: r = -0.028 (n = 826)lag -2: r = 0.013 (n = 877)lag -1: r = 0.020 (n = 922)lag +0: r = 0.020 (n = 966)lag +1: r = 0.029 (n = 966)lag +2: r = 0.042 (n = 957)lag +3: r = 0.030 (n = 965)lag +4: r = 0.031 (n = 969)lag +5: r = 0.039 (n = 928)lag +6: r = 0.024 (n = 893)lag +7: r = 0.032 (n = 867)lag +8: r = 0.052 (n = 819)lag +9: r = 0.067 (n = 760)lag +10: r = 0.046 (n = 686)

Same year (lag 0): +0.020. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.09 at lag -8) is higher than the same-year one by 0.07. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


scale (0 = far left, 6 = far right)
% of GDP		Years
Brazil BRA5.3717.9%2018, 2023
Thailand THA5.1618.2%2019, 2023
Colombia COL5.0513.3%2018, 2023
Guatemala GTM4.9219.7%2019, 2023
Equatorial Guinea GNQ4.835.68%2017, 2023
Korea, Rep. KOR4.833.5%2016, 2023
Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH4.7924%2018, 2023
Cote d'Ivoire CIV4.7623.8%2016, 2023
Honduras HND4.7120.5%2017, 2023
India IND4.727.8%2019, 2023
Mauritania MRT4.6629.7%2013, 2023
Singapore SGP4.6525.4%2015, 2023
Cyprus CYP4.6535.5%2016, 2023
United Kingdom GBR4.6422.6%2019, 2023
Guinea GIN4.527.38%2013, 2023

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset v16, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project; Lindberg, S. I. et al., Varieties of Party Identity and Organization (V-Party) Dataset. Read from the V-Dem Institute's vdemdata package.
Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2015), "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table", American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182, www.ggdc.net/pwt. Data: Penn World Table version 11.0, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, doi:10.34894/FABVLR.

Sources

Governing party, economic left to right

Economic left-right position of the main governing party

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · CC BY-SA 4.0 · updated annual (V-Dem); V-Party per election, to 2019

Where the main party in government stands on economic issues, as rated by V-Party's experts: 0 is far left (the state should run or redistribute most of the economy), 3 is the centre and 6 is far right (the market should be left alone). The main party is the one V-Party marks as the senior partner in government after each national election. It is recorded in election years only, and V-Party's data end in 2019, so the latest figure for many countries is a few years old. A one-party state has its ruling party here too: China's Communist Party is rated near the centre on economics, Cuba's near the far left. No "better" direction is set.

Investment share of GDP

Share of gross capital formation in GDP, at current PPPs (Penn World Table)

Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen · via DataverseNL · CC BY 4.0 · updated irregular (new versions every few years)

The share of everything a country produces that goes into new buildings, roads, machines and equipment, plus changes in stocks of goods. Prices are made comparable across countries (purchasing power parity, or PPP), so this can differ from the share in a country's own accounts at local prices. Years in which the Penn World Table flags the country's price comparison as unreliable are left out. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 18,622 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated V-Dem v16; V-Party v2. How the country data works · explore Governing party, economic left to right and Investment share of GDP

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Governing party, economic left to right changes Investment share of GDP, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Governing party, economic left to right or Investment share of GDP